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USDA dumps grain prices By: Ray Grabanski 04/02/2013 @ 8:18am
USDA's stocks report gave a bearish surprise to grain prices, with stocks much higher than anticipated in all three grains, but none more bearishly than corn. Stocks of corn were 370 mb larger than ...
Cold U.S. weather a growing market concern By: Ray Grabanski 03/26/2013 @ 1:00pm
Cold weather, not drought, is becoming a major concern amongst traders for US weather forecasts in the near term. The unprecedented cold weather as we enter the planting season has left much of the country ...
U.S. drought melting away By: Ray Grabanski 03/19/2013 @ 8:18am
Since about mid-January, the US drought in the western corn belt has been melting away with above normal precip for this region and normal to below normal temps. Particularly being affected are the ...
Are spring planting weather delays ahead? By: Ray Grabanski 03/12/2013 @ 1:58pm
Weather in the US is starting to become more important, as rather than only looking at SAM weather one now needs to focus on US weather for clues as to the direction of futures prices. SAM weather is ceasing ...
Protect fall crop profits now By: Ray Grabanski 02/26/2013 @ 8:14am
Last week, I wrote about the possibility of $11 soybeans by this summer. Soybeans gained for a few days after that on news of disappointing rains in South America, but quickly did an about face and ...
$11 summer soybeans? By: Ray Grabanski 02/19/2013 @ 8:35am
Soybeans suffered a weekly downside reversal a week ago, with follow-through weakness last week. This is suggesting the completion of a head- and- shoulders top on weekly charts. That suggests a ...
Argentina turns wet By: Ray Grabanski 02/13/2013 @ 4:00pm
Argentine weather has turned wet in the next 7 day forecast, and USDA barely cut the Argentine crop in February due to the drought they suffered since Christmas in that country, only choosing to cut ...
SA drought; Beginning or end By: Ray Grabanski 01/31/2013 @ 10:25am
The southern South American (SAM) drought has extended itself another week, with the predictable response by the market to rally to new weekly highs this week in both corn and soybeans. The dry weather ...
Keep eye on the southern sky By: Ray Grabanski 01/24/2013 @ 10:31am
Southern South America has been dry since about Jan. 1, at a critical time in the development of the South American (SAM) crop. This is the equivalent of July 1 for US producers, so this is a critical ...
The bulls take control of corn By: Ray Grabanski 01/16/2013 @ 2:35pm
The USDA report was everything we expected but one - the corn stocks showed domestic disappearance is still at a an unsustainable pace. While USDA raised corn and soybean production as we expected ...
The good ol' days? By: Ray Grabanski 01/09/2013 @ 3:22pm
USDA will issue its final report on 2012 production, a year in which corn production lagged 'trend' by about 25%, a historically large shortfall that projected prices to new highs in the summer 2012 ...
Lower markets ahead, analyst says By: Ray Grabanski 01/02/2013 @ 11:58am
The market continues to come under the influence of market pressure, with soybeans and corn leading the way down earlier, but wheat recently displaying more weakness than the other ...
2012 farm markets a blessing By: Ray Grabanski 12/27/2012 @ 12:37pm
Markets have shown some weakness recently, as there seems to be more and more evidence of a softening in demand from major sources. China in particular has canceled almost 1 mmt of soybean imports in the past ...
Nosedive in the grains? By: Ray Grabanski 12/19/2012 @ 3:36pm
Last week we talked about the impending retreat in grain prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans. That following weeks where we indicated soybeans sales above 14.90 January, and corn sales with March corn above ...
Time to sell soybeans? By: Ray Grabanski 12/12/2012 @ 3:14pm
Soybeans have also gained on corn, making soybeans a more attractive sale as we've now rallied back above the 1.90 soybean/corn price ratio. So, soybeans once again are a more attractive sale choice.This ...
Soybeans top recent price range By: Ray Grabanski 12/06/2012 @ 8:43am
Soybeans have rallied to the top of the recent price range at $14.90 in overnight trade, reaching the Pro Ag objective for this recent recovery and a place to get more aggressive in making soybean ...
Soybeans rebound to sell target By: Ray Grabanski 11/29/2012 @ 3:25pm
For a long time, Pro Ag has targeted $14 harvest lows for soybeans (ever since September when beans traded $17.50 or higher). So, when they hit that level in mid-November, we removed our hedges for 2012 ...
Removing 2012 hedges at $14.00 By: Ray Grabanski 11/14/2012 @ 2:34pm
For a long time, Pro Ag has been targeting $14 harvest lows for soybeans (ever since September when beans traded $17.50 or higher), and now this week we've finally hit those support price levels. ...
Soybeans battle the 'bears' By: Ray Grabanski 11/07/2012 @ 10:21am
Soybeans, and to a lesser extent corn, have come under selling pressure lately, as we warned last week in our weekly commentary. Indeed, private estimates of 2012 crop size continue to come in larger ...
Soybeans due for Halloween trick? By: Ray Grabanski 10/31/2012 @ 3:46pm
Soybeans have rallied back to $15.50 or higher, pushing up on more concerns about SAM weather. Specifically, it's been too wet in southern Brazil and Argentina to plant, and too dry to germinate ...
Markets eye SA weather, demand By: Ray Grabanski 10/24/2012 @ 3:32pm
The U.S. growing season is ending for corn and soybeans, but the South American (SAM) growing season is just beginning. The focus of the market is shifting from the U.S. growing season (first a drought, then ...
Soybean crop seen growing By: Ray Grabanski 10/18/2012 @ 8:55am
Soybean production estimates for the USDA October Report came in at 37.8 bushels per acre, much above the September estimate of 35.3 bushels per acre, and it is indicative of a much larger soybean ...
USDA confirms soybeans rising, corn not By: Ray Grabanski 10/11/2012 @ 9:53am
The October USDA report finally came out this morning as I write this column, and the results were well anticipated by the trade. USDA's report, surprisingly to Pro Ag, was about as traders expected with ...
More price pressure ahead By: Ray Grabanski 10/04/2012 @ 11:19am
Finally, crop estimates for the October USDA report are flowing in, and they might make the bullish Sept. stocks report a mute point. Recall that report showed corn stocks at 170 mb smaller than ...
Market not trading higher yields By: Ray Grabanski 09/27/2012 @ 8:26am
The rest of the trade continues to try to figure out why prices are cascading lower in corn and soybeans, and dragging wheat down along with them. But to Pro Ag, it is clear (and has been for weeks) that ...
Soybean yields 'shockingly large' By: Ray Grabanski 09/19/2012 @ 9:29am
So far, soybean harvest yields are shockingly large compared to expectations. In many cases, soybeans on good ground are yielding 50% more than expected prior to harvest, leaving farmers to scratch their ...
Soybeans yields continue to improve By: Ray Grabanski 09/12/2012 @ 3:39pm
Crop conditions continue to suggest improvements in soybean yield potential, this week with a 2% improvement in the G/E ratings for soybeans which caused the Pro Ag yield model to jump another 0.5 bu/acre to ...
Soybean yield potential improving? By: Ray Grabanski 09/05/2012 @ 8:03am
Soybean yield potential, as measured by Pro Ag yield models, has declined in each of the past weeks since early June. That yield potential declined from a high of 42.6 bu/acre on June 11 to only 36.2 ...
Soybeans still losing yield potential By: Ray Grabanski 08/30/2012 @ 12:33pm
Soybeans are still losing yield potential, with this week's Pro Ag yield model dropping 0.9 bu/acre to 36.1 bu/acre, well below the level at the beginning of August when USDA put out the 36.1 bu/acre ...
Crop weather remains relentless By: Ray Grabanski 08/23/2012 @ 10:48am
June and July were months of intense heat and dryness, while early August was marked by cooler than normal temps. In August, precipitation amounts, although improved from the poor June/July amounts ...
Is the drought busted? By: Ray Grabanski 08/16/2012 @ 10:47am
The U.S. crops have been devastated this summer by drought, with very dry/hot weather in June and July. The inclement weather tanked corn yields by 25% below 'trend', and dropped current USDA ...
Bear sighting? By: Ray Grabanski 08/08/2012 @ 8:17am
In the last two weeks, US crop yields have stabilized in models near 38 bu/acre, for soybeans, and 134 bu/acre, for corn. This is a surprising result, considering how little moisture has fallen the past ...
Farm markets reach for the stars By: Ray Grabanski 08/04/2012 @ 1:54pm
The devastating 2012 drought continues, with the Pro Ag yield model declining again in soybeans this week, but stabilizing in corn. Still, we are at much lower levels for yields than USDA in ...
Soybean market 'fireworks' ahead? By: Ray Grabanski 07/26/2012 @ 3:52pm
The drought severity in the US continues to intensify, as Pro Ag yield models for corn and soybeans continue to decline in dramatic fashion. On Monday, the USDA report showed once again that ...
Drought continues By: Ray Grabanski 07/18/2012 @ 1:59pm
The drought of 2012 continues, and is so severe at this point that is will go down in history as one of the worst droughts to affect the US corn and soybean crop in history. This is clearly a corn belt ...
1988-like drought conditions continue By: Ray Grabanski 07/13/2012 @ 3:02pm
While 1988 like drought conditions continue, the forecast is starting to change with now normal to above normal precipitation forecast for the next 2 weeks in the eastern corn belt, perhaps the most parched ...
Central Corn Belt drought getting dire By: Ray Grabanski 07/06/2012 @ 9:09am
Drought conditions are becoming dire in the central corn belt, with corn and soybean conditions deteriorating fast in the central corn belt states of eastern IA, ILL, IND, OH, KY, and TN such that crop ...
Drought deepens in Corn Belt By: Ray Grabanski 06/28/2012 @ 10:42am
The 2012 drought has taken a deeper hold on the central Corn Belt states, with significant crop conditions declining in ILL, IND, OH, KY, TN, and MO last week that signify the rapid descent of yield potential ...
The market needs to rally, analyst says By: Ray Grabanski 06/21/2012 @ 11:57am
All doubt about the US drought was removed Monday in the Crop Progress Report, as once again corn (-3% to 63% G/E) and soybeans (-4% to 56% G/E) both declined significantly. That drops the Pro Ag yield ...
All need it, some corn fields go without rain By: Ray Grabanski 06/13/2012 @ 8:01am
Dry weather is now stressing corn and soybeans in the central Corn Belt. In IA, ILL, IN, OH, and MO crop conditions have declined due to a lack of recent rainfall and the depletion of topsoil ...
WANTED: Rain, rain, and more rain By: Ray Grabanski 06/06/2012 @ 11:00am
This is the time of the year, moving into mid-June, when the importance of US weather on grain markets is paramount. Good weather, for the next 45 days, can translate into a very large corn crop, which is the ...
Grains battle outside factors By: Ray Grabanski 05/31/2012 @ 8:17am
Outside markets have had an impact on grains the last few weeks, with some major changes in crude oil, the dollar, and US interest rates. If not for these triple-play influences, grains might have had a rally ...
A bucket of bearish news has emerged By: Ray Grabanski 05/24/2012 @ 8:02am
Recently, we talked about how the soybean/corn price ratio had gotten out of hand for the 'actual' fundamentals vs. the USDA projected fundamentals. USDA is still using intended acreage figures ...
Soybean/corn price ratio eyed By: Ray Grabanski 05/17/2012 @ 7:01am
The soybean/corn price ratio reached a long time high after the May 10 crop report at 2.7. However, that historically high ratio quickly crashed, as there are a number of factors that made the ...
Bulls and bears set to dance By: Ray Grabanski 05/10/2012 @ 9:20am
After watching a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde nature of the grain markets last week, with the soybean market rallying to above the 2011 highs of $14.50 on the SAM crop problems. That opened up the possibility of ...
Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde-like grain markets By: Ray Grabanski 05/03/2012 @ 7:27am
Grains continue to exhibit a Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde mentality this week, as they rally on news out of South America (SAM) on further cuts in the soybean crop estimates there. But then we get ...
Markets move differently By: Ray Grabanski 04/26/2012 @ 6:50am
This week, soybean prices have broken out above recent resistance, moving to the highest prices since 2008, and above the summer of 2011 highs near $14.50. Running close to $15 before ...
A typical April weather market? By: Ray Grabanski 04/19/2012 @ 10:20am
Typically, in April, the grain market is all about weather, weather, weather. So far this spring, the weather has been nearly ideal, with an extremely warm March readying the ground for ...
Weather boosts plantings By: Ray Grabanski 04/12/2012 @ 10:26am
While lots of attention recently has been on the latest reports and data, U.S. weather continues to impress. After the warmest weather on record for Jan, Feb, and March for most of the US, which melted ...
Planting weather eyed By: Ray Grabanski 04/05/2012 @ 9:54am
The USDA report was bullish, with the stocks numbers smaller than expected and total acreage smaller than expected (although corn was large). Interestingly, only two million more acres are ...
Report to impact new vs. old crop By: Ray Grabanski 03/29/2012 @ 9:44am
The March 30 USDA Planting Intentions Report will be out Friday. It could be a barnburner, combined with the Quarterly Stocks report out that same day. Pro Ag is very concerned there will be more ...
Potential downside reversal? By: Ray Grabanski 03/22/2012 @ 8:53am
Grains are having a tough week so far this week, with corn and wheat running to new highs early Monday morning, only to turn lower by Monday afternoon and form a daily downside reversal. That was followed by ...
South American yields disappoint By: Ray Grabanski 03/14/2012 @ 3:18pm
South American yields, thus far, have been disappointing. As a result, soybean prices have rallied further from last week's levels. That has brought the corn market back above resistance marks as well ...
March madness for corn, soy By: Ray Grabanski 03/07/2012 @ 7:48am
Last week, we suffered through significant downside weekly reversals in the charts of crude oil, gold, and silver. The downside weekly reversals were probably most impressive in the metals, with huge ...
Are market bears lurking? By: Ray Grabanski 03/01/2012 @ 5:53am
The USDA Ag Outlook numbers were bearish as expected, and it's likely that more bad news will be found later this month. In the March 30 Planting Intentions Report, it's likely the bearish ...
Multiple-year hedges recommended By: Ray Grabanski 02/22/2012 @ 3:47pm
The USDA will update their long range U.S. crop projections this week. Any changes from the November time frame will be made when they put together the Feb. 13 released numbers and this week when they release ...
Ag Outlook numbers eyed this week By: Ray Grabanski 02/15/2012 @ 8:07am
This week's USDA 10-year agricultural projections have market-watchers reacting with a negative tone. In fact, the government's numbers are seen as surprisingly bearish for the coming two years. The ...
Ag Outlook can spur bulls By: Ray Grabanski 02/08/2012 @ 10:38am
The USDA will release new 10-year agricultural projections Monday. USDA publishes the projections each year in February. Recall that it was in this report in 2007 that the bull market of Ag commodities ...
World weather problems overdone? By: Ray Grabanski 02/01/2012 @ 7:44am
The recent South American (SAM) drought has been receiving a great deal of attention recently, with some media outlets claiming the SAM "drought" has impacted yields severely in affected areas, and eminent ...
Selling opportunities for corn producers By: Ray Grabanski 01/25/2012 @ 8:06am
Dry weather in southern South America has once again emerged. For the next seven days, Argentina and southern Brazil are expected to experience a dry forecast. That is providing support to the market ...
Bearish surprise; S.A. drought ending? By: Ray Grabanski 01/18/2012 @ 10:01am
USDA dealt us a bearish surprise last Thursday with slightly larger US production numbers than expected, and also revised upward other countries production (like the FSU countries of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and ...
Grain run over? By: Ray Grabanski 01/12/2012 @ 9:03am
The recent South American (SAM) drought has brought a great deal of attention to the grain markets recently, with corn and soybeans rallying to two-month highs on strong gains of 80c in corn and ...
S.A. drought ending? By: Ray Grabanski 01/05/2012 @ 10:31am
The recent South American (SAM) drought has pushed grain prices much higher in recent weeks, with corn pushing back above $6.60 March futures briefly or an 80-cent recovery from the recent lows. Now are ...
Drought threatens South American crops By: Ray Grabanski 12/29/2011 @ 8:50am
Grains have had a strong rally recently, rallying about 70c in corn the past two weeks and showing some life in an otherwise dead market. We just recently ran to new lows in corn, soybeans, and ...
Technical confusion By: Ray Grabanski 12/22/2011 @ 9:14am
After penetrating through recent lows last week, grains have had a nice run higher this week, starting with large gains Monday for corn that have had follow through strength through the middle of the ...
A commodities sell-off By: Ray Grabanski 12/15/2011 @ 8:31am
Grain markets have taken a few runs at the recent lows lately. On Wednesday, March corn traded at $5.80 and Jan soybean futures in the $10 range. This is the third time we have taken a run at these price ...
Triple price bottoms rarely hold By: Ray Grabanski 12/07/2011 @ 12:17pm
Corn tested recent lows yesterday, but bounced nicely from those lows to close 12 cents higher on the day. The only trouble is we are dealing with what looks now like a triple bottom. As we mentioned a ...
A pause in the recent break? By: Ray Grabanski 12/01/2011 @ 7:54am
Grain prices dropped sharply until finding support from $5.70-$5.80 in Dec corn, and relative support areas in other grains (wheat and soybeans). Corn now has formed what looks like a triple bottom, a ...
Collapse in grain prices By: Ray Grabanski 11/25/2011 @ 10:47am
We warned producers last week about a potential collapse in grain prices if we tested the recent lows and the support levels failed at $6.30 Dec corn and $11.70 Jan soybeans. Unfortunately, these levels did ...
Testing recent lows? By: Ray Grabanski 11/17/2011 @ 1:29pm
Grains have had some time now to digest the recent USDA report, which basically found smaller US crops (wheat, corn, and soybeans), but also found that world production offset much of the reduction in ...
Historic low corn/soybean ratio eyed By: Ray Grabanski 11/10/2011 @ 8:28am
USDA's Nov. report was out this week, with another round of smaller U.S. crop sizes, but larger world crop production. The U.S. corn crop was reduced another 1.4 bu/acre, as Pro Ag expected, with ...
Grain markets reach stalemate By: Ray Grabanski 11/03/2011 @ 9:32am
Grains prices seem to have reached a stalemate, with corn teetering between $6.30-$6.60 Dec corn and soybeans from $11.80-$12.50 in price. Wheat is basically "corn2", with wheat prices at a ...
A 'bear' soybean flag forming? By: Ray Grabanski 10/27/2011 @ 7:57am
Grains have shown some independent strength recently, with corn rallying from a low of $5.80 to run to $6.65 Dec. Soybeans gained from $11.50 to over $12.50 before losing some of that gain ...
Is the harvest bottom in? -Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 10/20/2011 @ 6:56am
Grains have rallied back nicely from lows in early October. Just last week, the markets gained over a dollar in soybeans, and accompanying gains in wheat and corn. However, so far this week grains have ...
Rally, but negative world news By: Ray Grabanski 10/13/2011 @ 8:35am
Grains have rallied recently, with Tuesday's limit up move in corn (40c gains) and large rally in other grains pushing grains up in the recent 7 day period. That has pushed corn 70c above its lows ...
Harvest pressure? By: Ray Grabanski 10/07/2011 @ 1:32pm
Harvest is expanding under excellent harvest weather, with very warm and dry conditions across most of the US the past week that is allowing rapid harvest progress of corn and soybeans. It also is ...
Week of extended losses By: Ray Grabanski 09/29/2011 @ 7:24am
Grains extended their losses this week, with a recovery early week only to be met by increased selling yesterday that led to another washout in market price levels. We are now breaking below ...
Yield hikes seen for next report By: Ray Grabanski 09/15/2011 @ 2:51pm
Last week we talked about how the USDA Sept. report may hold some surprises. Well, the crop sizes in corn were about as anticipated, with the 148 bu yield and 5 bu/acre yield cut were well ...
The September Report is coming By: Ray Grabanski 09/08/2011 @ 1:51pm
The Sept. USDA report is coming on Monday, and many are asking whether or not it will contain any surprises like the last report. Traders will be watching for shockingly low soybean production numbers, and a ...
Corn yield drops seen By: Ray Grabanski 09/01/2011 @ 8:10am
While July was a very hot month in 2011, August did not continue that heat, effectively leaving a 2011 crop that is likely not nearly as damaged as the big drought years of 1980, 1988 or similar type ...
Bullish corn at $7.40 is risky By: Ray Grabanski 08/25/2011 @ 8:12am
Recently, grain markets have received all bullish news, with media reports of smaller than expected yields likely for corn and soybeans in 2011, and USDA's August report numbers that were shockingly low ...
The power of a picture By: Ray Grabanski 08/05/2011 @ 8:07am
By the end of the day Tuesday, the corn market was limit up. Why? A big reason was various pictures of pollinated corn cobs! In the Internet age, pictures of crops can be sent to someone’s entire ...
Did heat hurt pollination? By: Ray Grabanski 08/03/2011 @ 2:06pm
Corn markets rallied sharply Tuesday on anticipation that heat has hurt pollination of corn in southern areas where the heat has persisted through the last half of July. Its likely there is some impact ...
Weather locks prices-Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 07/28/2011 @ 7:55am
So far, the heat has persisted and prices continue to hold at very high levels. This is in spite of a yield potential that is still indicating a crop size very close to USDA's last July report ...
Weather, weather, weather-Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 07/20/2011 @ 2:54pm
The market now is dictated by three main items: Weather, weather, and weather! After all, it's July and the heat dome of doom has set itself up in the central Corn Belt where it is providing ...
Opportunity knocks-Ray Grabananski By: Ray Grabanski 07/13/2011 @ 7:01am
Grain prices have rallied back after the break from the June 30 report. That data showed more corn acreage and stocks were higher than expected, with prices at the levels they were at before the ...
Corn market trouble?-Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 07/06/2011 @ 7:36am
Grain market bulls have recently been on the run, hoping to avoid being turned into steers in recent weeks as they have lost a lot of equity. Most of that was due to the recent USDA acreage report ...
Report revision talk underway-Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 06/30/2011 @ 11:34am
Today is the USDA report, long awaited as it contains the projected planted acreage for corn, soybeans, and wheat. These were much anticipated numbers, with all eyes focused on corn acreage and ...
A long 'bull' run-Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 06/23/2011 @ 2:21pm
It's been a long bull market for grains, with prices rising for almost one year straight, on the production problems around the world, and demand. The high use of grains from the U.S. resulted ...
A North Dakota disaster-Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 06/16/2011 @ 7:30am
This week's rain events, across the northern Plains and North Dakota, likely ended the planting season for the state, leaving a tremendous amount of unplanted HRS wheat, barley, and durum acreage unseeded ...
What crop disaster?-Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 06/08/2011 @ 7:47am
The past 10 days have been a huge turnaround for the eastern Corn Belt in planting conditions. They went from virtually nothing planted in OH (only 19% of the corn to May 30) to a much improved ...
Crunch time for planters-Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 06/02/2011 @ 7:26am
It's been a long spring for producers in the HRS wheat belt and the eastern Corn Belt to this date, with planting progress lagging terribly vs. normal at this late time of year. It is becoming ...
Corn bull rages-Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 05/25/2011 @ 1:40pm
Corn prices are within striking distance of their new-crop December highs, as we move into the final stages of what has been a late planted crop for 2011. The eastern Corn Belt states of OH and PA are ...
Planting progress eyed-Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 05/19/2011 @ 7:29am
We talked last week about how the market was focused on only the bearish side of the market. That reasoning was supported by the expectation that prices had already allocated out the short crop from 2010 ...
Report's bullish data ignored: Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 05/11/2011 @ 2:14pm
Today's USDA report was filled with information for both the bulls and the bears, but it was the bearish items that got noted in trade, with price plummeting limit down in corn, sharply lower in ...
Farmers, markets struggle - Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 05/05/2011 @ 1:43pm
While farmers are struggling to get the crop planted in what is turning out to be one of the latest springs on record, the markets are also struggling to maintain their current high prices. ...
Markets eyeing crop weather By: Ray Grabanski 04/28/2011 @ 10:08am
Weather continues to be the story in the US, as winter wheat is failing in TX, and just-in-time rains prevent a complete disaster in OK and KS this week. But still, much more rain is needed in western ...
Ray Grabanski: Markets eyeing weather By: Ray Grabanski 04/28/2011 @ 8:00am
Weather continues to be the story in the US, as winter wheat is failing in TX, and just-in-time rains prevent a complete disaster in OK and KS this week. But still, much more rain is needed in western ...
Ray Grabanski: Rain stops corn rally? By: Ray Grabanski 04/21/2011 @ 7:23am
Grains had a very strange trading day Wednesday, with prices starting sharply higher, but ending sharply lower for wheat and corn, with the heaviest losses in the corn market. The markets ...
Ray Grabanski: Spring markets By: Ray Grabanski 04/14/2011 @ 6:06pm
As we move into spring, we've already had the big March acreage and stocks reports, and the strong market reaction to the upside due to the tighter than expected corn stocks. The April USDA ...
Ray Grabanski: Skyrocketing prices By: Ray Grabanski 04/07/2011 @ 12:39pm
After shooting to record levels this week, the corn market is taking a slight break, as it determines whether or not it is necessary to run even higher. Grains rocketed higher last week, following the USDA ...
Ray Grabanski: Traders, long or short? By: Ray Grabanski 03/31/2011 @ 11:48am
It's report day this morning as I write this, and much will be said and written about the numbers from today's prospective acreage and stocks report. As always, there will be some surprises ...
Ray Grabanski: Price direction? By: Ray Grabanski 03/24/2011 @ 6:27am
Grains bounced back nicely from sharply lower trade in early March, with prices rallying back sharply on Thursday and Friday to move to 60% retracements of losses suffered in early March. The break ...
Ray Grabanski: Market top? By: Ray Grabanski 03/17/2011 @ 11:43am
There have been some concerning price signals recently in commodities, of all kinds (grains, metals, softs, crude oil and energies), that are indicating potential highs may have finally been formed, especially ...
Ray Grabanski: Reports, spring coming By: Ray Grabanski 03/10/2011 @ 12:18pm
As the sun rises on a Mid-March day, we await another USDA report which typically is full of dull news in March, but today may be slightly different as the world starts this March, 2011 with some very ...
Pegging crop insurance rates By: Ray Grabanski 03/09/2011 @ 9:26am
While insurance prices finished forming during February, we were blessed to get some very high prices established for the 2011 crop year, with the highest prices ever for insurance price elections with $6.01 ...
Ray Grabananski: High crop insurance rates By: Ray Grabanski 03/03/2011 @ 1:10pm
While insurance prices finished forming during February, we were blessed to get some very high prices established for the 2011 crop year, with the highest prices ever for insurance price elections with $6.01 ...
Ray Grabanski: Cotton top showing the way? By: Ray Grabanski 02/24/2011 @ 7:12am
Cotton prices finally appear to have blown their top off Friday, moving limit up for the second day in a row, and then moving limit down the same day to finish with huge losses. Since then it ...
USDA weighs in By: Ray Grabanski 02/17/2011 @ 8:07am
USDA has weighed in on the big bull market of 2010/11, with its most recent report in February showing even tighter corn stocks led by improving demand at a time when demand needs to be allocated among various ...
Ray Grabanski: Bull alive and well By: Ray Grabanski 02/09/2011 @ 4:30pm
The bull market in grains is alive and well, thank you, as corn once again rallied to new highs today on yet another cut in ending stocks in the monthly USDA report. In February, we got another cut ...
Ray Grabanski: Bull reappears By: Ray Grabanski 02/03/2011 @ 8:03am
The bull market has reemerged this week in grains, with new recent highs in corn, wheat, and soybeans. All commodities have regained the bull market status after small losses last week. The tight stocks ...
Ray Grabanski: Bull markets continue By: Ray Grabanski 01/27/2011 @ 9:13am
Bull markets continue for now in grains, with wheat leading the way. Recent global weather concerns impacting wheat supplies registered to the market, with Australian news of a sale of feed wheat to ...
Ray Grabanski: Corn trouble? By: Ray Grabanski 01/20/2011 @ 11:35am
Corn prices reversed yesterday after running to new highs, closing with sharp losses and forming a downside daily reversal on charts. But this has happened before, most notably on the day of ...
Ray Grabanaski:The bull runs By: Ray Grabanski 01/13/2011 @ 8:00am
Grains finally broke out of their previous ranges, with corn and soybeans leading the way Wednesday, with rallies to new highs in both grains. That was a very positive sign, and very encouraging for ...
Grains slowly break out By: Ray Grabanski 12/30/2010 @ 10:16am
Grains are slowly breaking out of their recent price ranges, with soybeans and corn running to new recent highs lately on continued dry weather in South America. Argentina, especially, is experiencing ...
Old, high grain prices near By: Ray Grabanski 12/23/2010 @ 9:51am
Grains are all approaching their recent highs. Wheat, corn, and soybeans are within striking distance of the two-year highs made for all three crops. This indeed is going to be a very Merry Christmas for ...
Watching & waiting By: Ray Grabanski 12/15/2010 @ 1:49pm
The grain market is taking a wait and see approach, with the market teetering below resistance marks at the old highs in wheat, corn, and soybeans. That's the good news for bears, as the market has ...
Watching & waiting By: Ray Grabanski 12/15/2010 @ 1:47pm
The grain market is taking a wait and see approach, with the market teetering below resistance marks at the old highs in wheat, corn, and soybeans. That's the good news for bears, as the market has ...
Decision time -- Ray Grabanski By: Ray Grabanski 12/09/2010 @ 9:06am
Grains have continued their recovery this week, gaining back even more and approaching the yearly highs again in corn and soybeans, with wheat running back to the old highs. This was quite a retracement for ...
Ray Grabanski: Thanks for high prices By: Ray Grabanski 11/26/2010 @ 7:05am
Grain prices have had a healthy run higher in 2010, in spite of relatively decent US yields of most crops. That has allowed farmers to have another good year in 2010, not quite as good as 2008, but ...
Commodity highs finally formed? By: Ray Grabanski 11/18/2010 @ 12:36pm
Last week we commented on the disappointing reaction to the USDA November report, and how it had showed the first indication that the bull market was tired. Since then we have formed a weekly downside ...
Markets march on with elections over By: Ray Grabanski 11/05/2010 @ 8:37am
Our election is over, and while the Republicans can celebrate their wins in the House and gains in the Senate, it might also be true that now that no one party controls the House, Senate, and Presidency that ...
Markets march on with elections over By: Ray Grabanski 11/04/2010 @ 2:41pm
Our election is over, and while the Republicans can celebrate their wins in the House and gains in the Senate, it might also be true that now that no one party controls the House, Senate, and Presidency that ...
Ray Grabanski: Grains hold gains By: Ray Grabanski 10/28/2010 @ 8:38am
Grains for the most part are holding all of their gains after the USDA shocker of an October report, and now that the Nov. report is not far off (where once again they will revise the corn and soybean yields) ...
Calm before one more storm? By: Ray Grabanski 10/21/2010 @ 8:37am
Grains have been calm the recent week, with corn trading with small losses the past 5 days following the two limit up days after the USDA report. Soybeans have wallowed in the recent ...
Ray Grabanski: Corn, soy prices explode to new highs By: Ray Grabanski 10/14/2010 @ 8:51am
Grain prices exploded to new highs in corn and soybeans after, last Friday's blockbuster USDA report, where corn yields were dropped record amounts during an October report of a non-drought year.It was ...
USDA numbers & the trade By: Ray Grabanski 10/07/2010 @ 9:18am
Grains last week made it look like the top has been placed in the market, with downside weekly reversals in corn and soybeans following up a week where wheat formed a downside weekly reversal. Yet, so ...
USDA numbers & the trade By: Ray Grabanski 10/07/2010 @ 9:17am
Grains last week made it look like the top has been placed in the market, with downside weekly reversals in corn and soybeans following up a week where wheat formed a downside weekly reversal. Yet, so ...
Crunch time? By: Ray Grabanski 09/30/2010 @ 10:53am
Last week we talked about how markets were at a pivot point for corn and soybean markets, as both rallied sharply to new highs, yet there were some cracks in the bull market with some moves lower in corn ...
Corn-topping action By: Ray Grabanski 09/16/2010 @ 3:20pm
Corn prices continue to rise the past week, pushing up a little faster recently as prices have pushed near $5 already, after topping $4.50 just last week. Prices continue to accelerate their ...
Ray Grabanski: Corn-topping action? By: Ray Grabanski 09/16/2010 @ 9:49am
Corn prices continue to rise the past week, pushing up a little faster recently as prices have pushed near $5 already, after topping $4.50 just last week. Prices continue to accelerate their ...
Ray Grabanski: Corn is still king By: Ray Grabanski 09/09/2010 @ 9:58am
Last week, we talked about how the corn market has been the leader of the grains, and finally last week it rallied past its recent 18 month range below $4.50, turning trend to higher and keeping the ...
Grains headed lower? By: Ray Grabanski 08/26/2010 @ 7:48am
Last week we indicated that the corn and soybean rally was in jeopardy, and this week we have more evidence that indeed these markets may have topped for the pre-harvest period in the US. Soybeans formed ...
Grains headed lower? By: Ray Grabanski 08/26/2010 @ 7:47am
Last week we indicated that the corn and soybean rally was in jeopardy, and this week we have more evidence that indeed these markets may have topped for the pre-harvest period in the US. Soybeans formed ...
Corn, soybean rally in jeopardy? By: Ray Grabanski 08/19/2010 @ 10:23am
Corn and soybeans have been rallying while wheat has struggled recently, with prices dropping back below $7 after trading over $1.50 higher than that at one time at the peak of the market. Wheat ...
Corn, soybean rally in jeopardy? By: Ray Grabanski 08/19/2010 @ 10:20am
Corn and soybeans have been rallying while wheat has struggled recently, with prices dropping back below $7 after trading over $1.50 higher than that at one time at the peak of the market. Wheat ...
Ray Grabanski: Wheat market top? By: Ray Grabanski 08/11/2010 @ 4:34pm
Wheat market has dropped enough from recent highs to have formed a potential top in the wheat market, a factor that may have major implications for the corn and soybean markets. Wheat prices ...
Grains have all rallied to profitable levels again, with corn over $4 futures, soybeans over $10 futures, and wheat over $7 futures. These are profitable levels for production of the 2010 ...
Ray Grabanski: Wheat, the "Lone Ranger" By: Ray Grabanski 07/27/2010 @ 11:00pm
Rallying to new highs this week, wheat prices have continued to rally on drought concerns in the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries of Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. That is in spite of ...
Ray Grabanski: Has summer grain rally ended or been extended? By: Ray Grabanski 07/21/2010 @ 11:00pm
Last week, we talked about how grains probably should be sold at some point in the coming weeks, with strong hints that the rally was probably getting a little overheated for the current situation. The ...
Grains have had a sharp rally since June 29th when we made our lows for recent prices. Corn has rallied over $.50, beans $1, and wheat about $.75 since that time, and now we have to ask ourselves, "How ...
Declining corn, soybean yield potential bullish By: Ray Grabanski 07/07/2010 @ 11:00pm
Corn and soybean conditions have been declining fairly rapidly the past 3 weeks, with corn in a position where there is no room for a crop size less than the current projected 163.5 bushel/acre yield in the ...
