ARTICLES BY RAY GRABANSKI
Late Spring, Declining Winter Wheat By: 04/15/2014 @ 7:50am

Spring is upon us by the calendar, but winter won't let go of the current weather pattern! The bitterly cold temperatures from last winter are lingering into spring, with temps an unprecedented 4°F. to…

Late Corn Planting? By: 04/08/2014 @ 7:47am

The planting season is upon us as spring finally might be arriving, with the bitterly cold winter so far extending itself into spring. This has been a cold start to spring, with snow falling in northern areas…

Technically, Corn Has Upside By: 03/31/2014 @ 3:17pm

Corn prices rallied after a somewhat friendly report, reversing corn's price fortunes today after starting the day 15¢ lower.  We finished with 10¢ gains, a full 25¢ higher than the…

Grain Bull Rally Holding By: 03/26/2014 @ 8:39am

The grain bull market is alive and well, with grains holding near recent highs as we move into the March 31 acreage intentions and stocks reports.So far the spring has turned out to be another nonevent across…

It's March: Prevent-plant acres eyed By: 03/12/2014 @ 9:49am

New-crop soybeans pushed to new recent highs this week, but old-crop soybeans continued to suffer from selling after sharp losses Monday. Could China finally be shifting purchases to new-crop from old-crop…

Ukraine unrest propels grains to new highs By: 03/04/2014 @ 8:22am

Unrest in Ukraine has propelled grains to new highs or back to recent highs this week, with wheat rallying the most since Ukraine is a breadbasket for this part of the world. Any unrest in the Crimean region…

Soybean exports are off the charts By: 02/25/2014 @ 3:45pm

Soybeans continued to rally the past week, pushing past recent yearly highs of $13.80 in yesterday's close.  This represents a new high for the year, and it's encouraging to market bulls as we…

Soybean futures soaring By: 02/18/2014 @ 8:57am

Soybeans rallied to new recent highs, with corn and wheat also pushing up in the past week. Grains are supported by strong exports, with demand the last few months cutting into ending stocks levels of wheat…

Market eyes improving South America weather By: 02/12/2014 @ 1:03pm

South American (SAM) weather has improved significantly over the past week, with a turn from warm/dry in southern production areas of southern Brazil and Argentina to a cool/wet forecast for the coming two…

Market 'ball' is getting kicked around By: 02/04/2014 @ 6:29am

South American weather is still the great story this time of year, as the growing season hits its prime time of filling soybean plants and also at the double-crop planting season. So far, weather has not been…

Farm Bill offerings eyed By: 01/28/2014 @ 10:18am

In news this week, there is a Farm Bill now unveiled that is likely to get passed by both the House and Senate in the next few weeks, and signed by Pres. Obama.  So, it's likely to become law…

Weather pattern change in South America? By: 01/21/2014 @ 9:42am

Today's weather forecast is a far change from just a week ago, when temps were above normal for Argentina and southern Brazil and precip amounts for the next 14 days were also less than normal. …

Did corn bottom on USDA reports? By: 01/14/2014 @ 7:21am

The government report last week was a bit of a surprise for corn, with lowered production numbers 61 mb vs. expectations of another rise in production.  USDA got there by raising harvested acres, and…

Market whispers from last year By: 01/08/2014 @ 3:27pm

The year 2013 has officially ended, and what a barn burner it was for the stock market, which was red hot and pushed to new highs in 2013, just above the old historic highs before the year ended.  But…

Turning the page on a New Year By: 12/31/2013 @ 9:54am

Happy New Year! It's New Year's Eve, and it's hard not to think of what the new year will bring in terms of prices for 2014. (It will be difficult to write that, not 2013, on checks - for those…

Great gifts in 2013 markets By: 12/27/2013 @ 10:57am

MERRY CHRISTMAS 2013!  As we review the year 2013 we realize how blessed we have been, as prices were very high for most of 2013 with opportunities galore to sell at relatively high prices early in the…

South American weather problems emerging? By: 12/17/2013 @ 8:50am

Last week we talked about how the focus of the market is turning to South American weather. That is starting to become more apparent with soybean prices holding their own while corn is testing recent lows, and…

Focus turning to South American weather By: 12/10/2013 @ 8:23am

The market is quickly turning its focus to South American weather, as this is the growing season currently in the world with major implications for the supply and demand of commodities.  It especially…

Winter market blues? By: 12/03/2013 @ 7:38am

Winter is making its debut in Northern states this week, with up to 1 foot of snow in northern regions including Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, that will likely last into spring…

South America's weather eyed By: 11/26/2013 @ 10:08am

Corn harvest is nearing completion, with most of the U.S. ahead of average pace on corn harvest as well as most other crops.Corn harvest is now 95% complete vs. 91% normally, with sorghum 97% harvested vs. 91%…

Corn sinks to new lows By: 11/19/2013 @ 8:52am

Corn prices have sunk back to new lows after the USDA report, which was considered somewhat bullish by the trade last week, producing an upside reversal in corn that day.  But price gains could not be…

Exports will need to be realized, analyst says By: 11/12/2013 @ 10:44am

It's the first USDA Report in modern history to take 60 days in between reports (especially during harvest). So the yield information took on a new importance in last Friday's report.  Questions…

Yield models, estimates still higher By: 11/05/2013 @ 11:09am

Friday USDA will issue their first monthly crop production estimate since September (October was missed due to the gov't shutdown), and its likely field estimates for both corn and soybeans will be hiked…

Analyst: Models indicate yield hikes By: 10/29/2013 @ 7:29am

As we pass the 50% harvested mark for corn and soybeans this week, we now will have our final crop condition report for yield models to be estimated from.  The yield models have advanced nicely in recent…

Analyst: Yield models continue rise By: 10/22/2013 @ 8:14am

The government was back in operation this week after finally ending the standoff between Republicans and Democrats last week, with crop conditions and weekly exports out this week. The exports continue to…

Analyst: Yields imply larger crop By: 10/15/2013 @ 7:45am

Yields of corn and soybeans continue to surprise on the high side, a pleasant surprise for farmers who endured a month of warm/dry weather from mid-August to mid-September. Since then, it has been on the wet…

Strong yields and a shut-down government By: 10/08/2013 @ 6:29am

Yields of corn and soybean harvest continue better than expected, and that will pressure grains once the world learns about these larger than expected yields. However, the government is currently shut down…

Yields continue better than expected By: 10/01/2013 @ 7:57am

Yields of corn and soybean harvest continue better than expected, and that will pressure grains even more than the USDA stocks and small grains report yesterday.  USDA's report yesterday…

Harvest advances and yields surprise By: 09/24/2013 @ 7:49am

Harvest is advancing, with weather expected to be mostly warm and dry the coming two weeks, which should allow harvest to move into high gear. So far, yields of corn, especially, are better than expected, but…

Harvest begins! By: 09/17/2013 @ 7:42am

Harvest of corn has begun, with 4% of the corn harvested (mostly in southern regions), which is behind the average pace of 10% normally done at this time. However, harvest yields in southern areas is better…

Markets await field 'lie detectors' By: 09/10/2013 @ 7:33am

Grain markets are eagerly anticipating harvest, when combines (or as Randy Martinson, my coworker, is calling them, "lie detectors") will go out into fields, and we will determine exactly how good or poor this…

Soybeans at all-time highs: Nov. '13 By: 09/03/2013 @ 7:53am

Soybeans have had a great run higher recently, running up $2.50 in just a few short weeks as a drought has occurred to end the season, and prices have drifted higher again in overnight trade back to the…

Soybean yield potential slips, corn steady By: 08/27/2013 @ 12:55pm

Crop conditions yesterday afternoon showed soybeans down 4% to 58% G/E, still rated above-normal for soybean crops. That dropped the yield model to 44.6 bu/acre, still well above USDA or other recent crop tour…

Soybean yield models soar to record high By: 08/20/2013 @ 10:10am

The 2013 crop continues to improve in yield potential, with the soybean crops soaring to a new record high this week at 45.13 bushels/acre in spite of a 2% decline in crop conditions (to 62% G/E).  This…

Record-high yield models and bullish reports By: 08/13/2013 @ 5:58am

The 2013 crop continues to improve in yield potential, with the corn and soybean crops now suggesting their highest yield rating of the year this week, and in an ominous sign for prices, RECORD-HIGH…

Yield models rise, prices crumble By: 08/06/2013 @ 6:08am

The 2013 crop continues to improve in yield potential, with the corn and soybean crops now suggesting their highest yield rating of the year this week, and in an ominous sign for prices, are still rising to…

Yield models stable, prices at new lows By: 07/30/2013 @ 9:51am

The 2013 crop continues to develop with good yield potential, thus putting pressure on prices (especially oilseeds) this week.  Soybeans in particular were sharply lower, with it dragging the other crops…

Mild temps to help corn pollinate By: 07/23/2013 @ 7:56am

Monday afternoon's Crop Condition report showed another decline in crop condition ratings, with the corn down 3% from good to move 1% to fair and 2% to poor.   Now corn is rated 63%…

Yield models suggest bumper crop By: 07/16/2013 @ 8:10am

Monday afternoon's Crop Condition report continued to show improvement for most Corn Belt crops. This was in spite of a 2% decline in crop conditions in the three major crops. Crop conditions released…

Crop condition improvement continues By: 07/11/2013 @ 7:21am

Monday afternoon's Crop Condition report continued to improve for most Corn Belt crops. Corn conditions are improving 1% to 68% G/E, now well above last year and even above average. Pro Ag yield models…

2013 bumper crops? By: 07/02/2013 @ 9:53am

As crops move into the vegetative development stage and the fourth of July, we are quickly realizing that 2013 is not anything like 2012.Last year, the crops started a rapid decline in mid-June and…

Rapidly improving crops bearish By: 06/25/2013 @ 7:43am

Much attention has been focused on the planting progress for crops this spring as we fell behind normal planting progress on HRS wheat, corn, and soybeans due to our terrible spring (March and April were…

Attention turns to growing season By: 06/18/2013 @ 9:48am

U.S. planting continues to drag on, with the only corn being planted now to be used for silage. Meanwhile, soybean planting continues.  This was a fairly good week for soybean planting, with about half of…

Turning to the growing season By: 06/18/2013 @ 7:44am

Planting continues to drag on, with the only corn planting now for silage while soybean planting continues. This was a fairly good week for soybean planting, with about half of remaining soybeans put into the…

Planting pains continue By: 06/11/2013 @ 1:39pm

Planting struggles continue across the Corn Belt, with only 95% of the corn planted on June 10 vs. 98% normally at this time.  Iowa (92% planted), Minnesota (90% planted), North Dakota (89% planted), and…

Is the rally over? By: 06/04/2013 @ 7:45am

Grains have rallied sharply the last two weeks on cool/wet conditions and late planting of grains. However, in Monday's 6/3 planting progress report, 5% of the corn and 13% of the soybeans were planted…

Rally time, or what? By: 05/29/2013 @ 7:45am

The market has rallied as of late in grains, with gains again this week that are threatening a breakout of the recent downtrend that has been well established since last September. Soybeans especially are on…

Rapid planting: Almost caught up By: 05/21/2013 @ 7:18am

Rapid planting progress of corn, soybeans, and HRS wheat occurred last week as we had a wide-open window of planting opportunity for most of the Corn Belt and northern Plains last week. A record-tying 43% of…

Rapid planting, improving winter wheat crop By: 05/14/2013 @ 8:55am

Rapid planting progress of corn, soybeans, and HRS wheat is likely the coming two weeks with dry and warming weather forecast ahead.  Since the weekend was open weather with little national precip…

HRW wheat on the ropes By: 05/07/2013 @ 7:46am

HRW wheat crops are on the ropes as weather continues to hammer the crop in HRW wheat country.  First the Ice Age hit, when temps were frigid for the past two months in winter wheat country, giving them…

Delays and drought relief . . . again By: 04/23/2013 @ 11:19am

Last week we wrote about the very same topic - late planting and disappearing drought - but essentially that is the same story this week as well. We have a very late and disappointing start to the planting…

Late planting & shrinking drought By: 04/16/2013 @ 7:34am

Late planting is a reality as Pro Ag has been warning for weeks as the cold weather keeps planters at bay across the U.S. So far, crop progress reports out yesterday confirmed Pro Ag's suspicion…

Late planting likely By: 04/10/2013 @ 8:22am

Late planting is likely this spring as cold temperatures continue to plague the US, especially the northern US, this spring. So far planting progress is falling behind normal in nearly all crops this spring as…

USDA dumps grain prices By: 04/02/2013 @ 8:18am

USDA's stocks report gave a bearish surprise to grain prices, with stocks much higher than anticipated in all three grains, but none more bearishly than corn.  Stocks of corn were 370 mb larger than…

Cold U.S. weather a growing market concern By: 03/26/2013 @ 1:00pm

Cold weather, not drought, is becoming a major concern amongst traders for US weather forecasts in the near term. The unprecedented cold weather as we enter the planting season has left much of the country…

U.S. drought melting away By: 03/19/2013 @ 8:18am

Since about mid-January, the US drought in the western corn belt has been melting away with above normal precip for this region and normal to below normal temps.  Particularly being affected are the…

Are spring planting weather delays ahead? By: 03/12/2013 @ 1:58pm

Weather in the US is starting to become more important, as rather than only looking at SAM weather one now needs to focus on US weather for clues as to the direction of futures prices. SAM weather is ceasing…

Protect fall crop profits now By: 02/26/2013 @ 8:14am

Last week, I wrote about the possibility of $11 soybeans by this summer.  Soybeans gained for a few days after that on news of disappointing rains in South America, but quickly did an about face and…

$11 summer soybeans? By: 02/19/2013 @ 8:35am

Soybeans suffered a weekly downside reversal a week ago, with follow-through weakness last week. This is suggesting the completion of a head- and- shoulders top on weekly charts.  That suggests a…

Argentina turns wet By: 02/13/2013 @ 4:00pm

Argentine weather has turned wet in the next 7 day forecast, and USDA barely cut the Argentine crop in February due to the drought they suffered since Christmas in that country, only choosing to cut…

SA drought; Beginning or end By: 01/31/2013 @ 10:25am

The southern South American (SAM) drought has extended itself another week, with the predictable response by the market to rally to new weekly highs this week in both corn and soybeans.  The dry weather…

Keep eye on the southern sky By: 01/24/2013 @ 10:31am

Southern South America has been dry since about Jan. 1, at a critical time in the development of the South American (SAM) crop.  This is the equivalent of July 1 for US producers, so this is a critical…

The bulls take control of corn By: 01/16/2013 @ 2:35pm

The USDA report was everything we expected but one - the corn stocks showed domestic disappearance is still at a an unsustainable pace.   While USDA raised corn and soybean production as we expected…

The good ol' days? By: 01/09/2013 @ 3:22pm

USDA will issue its final report on 2012 production, a year in which corn production lagged 'trend' by about 25%, a historically large shortfall that projected prices to new highs in the summer 2012…

Lower markets ahead, analyst says By: 01/02/2013 @ 11:58am

The market continues to come under the influence of market pressure, with soybeans and corn leading the way down earlier, but wheat recently displaying more weakness than the other…

2012 farm markets a blessing By: 12/27/2012 @ 12:37pm

Markets have shown some weakness recently, as there seems to be more and more evidence of a softening in demand from major sources. China in particular has canceled almost 1 mmt of soybean imports in the past…

Nosedive in the grains? By: 12/19/2012 @ 3:36pm

Last week we talked about the impending retreat in grain prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans. That following weeks where we indicated soybeans sales above 14.90 January, and corn sales with March corn above…

Time to sell soybeans? By: 12/12/2012 @ 3:14pm

Soybeans have also gained on corn, making soybeans a more attractive sale as we've now rallied back above the 1.90 soybean/corn price ratio. So, soybeans once again are a more attractive sale choice.This…

Soybeans top recent price range By: 12/06/2012 @ 8:43am

Soybeans have rallied to the top of the recent price range at $14.90 in overnight trade, reaching the Pro Ag objective for this recent recovery and a place to get more aggressive in making soybean…

Soybeans rebound to sell target By: 11/29/2012 @ 3:25pm

For a long time, Pro Ag has targeted $14 harvest lows for soybeans (ever since September when beans traded $17.50 or higher). So, when they hit that level in mid-November, we removed our hedges for 2012…

Removing 2012 hedges at $14.00 By: 11/14/2012 @ 2:34pm

For a long time, Pro Ag has been targeting $14 harvest lows for soybeans (ever since September when beans traded $17.50 or higher), and now this week we've finally hit those support price levels. …

Soybeans battle the 'bears' By: 11/07/2012 @ 10:21am

Soybeans, and to a lesser extent corn, have come under selling pressure lately, as we warned last week in our weekly commentary.   Indeed, private estimates of 2012 crop size continue to come in larger…

Soybeans due for Halloween trick? By: 10/31/2012 @ 3:46pm

Soybeans have rallied back to $15.50 or higher, pushing up on more concerns about SAM weather. Specifically, it's been too wet in southern Brazil and Argentina to plant, and too dry to germinate…

Markets eye SA weather, demand By: 10/24/2012 @ 3:32pm

The U.S. growing season is ending for corn and soybeans, but the South American (SAM) growing season is just beginning. The focus of the market is shifting from the U.S. growing season (first a drought, then…

Soybean crop seen growing By: 10/18/2012 @ 8:55am

Soybean production estimates for the USDA October Report came in at 37.8 bushels per acre, much above the September estimate of 35.3 bushels per acre, and it is indicative of a much larger soybean…

USDA confirms soybeans rising, corn not By: 10/11/2012 @ 9:53am

The October USDA report finally came out this morning as I write this column, and the results were well anticipated by the trade. USDA's report, surprisingly to Pro Ag, was about as traders expected with…

More price pressure ahead By: 10/04/2012 @ 11:19am

Finally, crop estimates for the October USDA report are flowing in, and they might make the bullish Sept. stocks report a mute point. Recall that report showed corn stocks at 170 mb smaller than…

Market not trading higher yields By: 09/27/2012 @ 8:26am

The rest of the trade continues to try to figure out why prices are cascading lower in corn and soybeans, and dragging wheat down along with them.  But to Pro Ag, it is clear (and has been for weeks) that…

Soybean yields 'shockingly large' By: 09/19/2012 @ 9:29am

So far, soybean harvest yields are shockingly large compared to expectations.  In many cases, soybeans on good ground are yielding 50% more than expected prior to harvest, leaving farmers to scratch their…

Soybeans yields continue to improve By: 09/12/2012 @ 3:39pm

Crop conditions continue to suggest improvements in soybean yield potential, this week with a 2% improvement in the G/E ratings for soybeans which caused the Pro Ag yield model to jump another 0.5 bu/acre to…

Soybean yield potential improving? By: 09/05/2012 @ 8:03am

Soybean yield potential, as measured by Pro Ag yield models, has declined in each of the past weeks since early June.   That yield potential declined from a high of 42.6 bu/acre on June 11 to only 36.2…

Soybeans still losing yield potential By: 08/30/2012 @ 12:33pm

Soybeans are still losing yield potential, with this week's Pro Ag yield model dropping 0.9 bu/acre to 36.1 bu/acre, well below the level at the beginning of August when USDA put out the 36.1 bu/acre…

Crop weather remains relentless By: 08/23/2012 @ 10:48am

June and July were months of intense heat and dryness, while early August was marked by cooler than normal temps.  In August, precipitation amounts, although improved from the poor June/July amounts…

Is the drought busted? By: 08/16/2012 @ 10:47am

The U.S. crops have been devastated this summer by drought, with very dry/hot weather in June and July. The inclement weather tanked corn yields by 25% below 'trend', and dropped current USDA…

Bear sighting? By: 08/08/2012 @ 8:17am

In the last two weeks, US crop yields have stabilized in models near 38 bu/acre, for  soybeans, and 134 bu/acre, for corn. This is a surprising result, considering how little moisture has fallen the past…

Farm markets reach for the stars By: 08/04/2012 @ 1:54pm

The devastating 2012 drought continues, with the Pro Ag yield model declining again in soybeans this week, but stabilizing in corn.  Still, we are at much lower levels for yields than USDA in…

Soybean market 'fireworks' ahead? By: 07/26/2012 @ 3:52pm

The drought severity in the US continues to intensify, as Pro Ag yield models for corn and soybeans continue to decline in dramatic fashion.  On Monday, the USDA  report showed once again that…

Drought continues By: 07/18/2012 @ 1:59pm

The drought of 2012 continues, and is so severe at this point that is will go down in history as one of the worst droughts to affect the US corn and soybean crop in history. This is clearly a corn belt…

1988-like drought conditions continue By: 07/13/2012 @ 3:02pm

While 1988 like drought conditions continue, the forecast is starting to change with now normal to above normal precipitation forecast for the next 2 weeks in the eastern corn belt, perhaps the most parched…

Central Corn Belt drought getting dire By: 07/06/2012 @ 9:09am

Drought conditions are becoming dire in the central corn belt, with corn and soybean conditions deteriorating fast in the central corn belt states of eastern IA, ILL, IND, OH, KY, and TN such that crop…

Drought deepens in Corn Belt By: 06/28/2012 @ 10:42am

The 2012 drought has taken a deeper hold on the central Corn Belt states, with significant crop conditions declining in ILL, IND, OH, KY, TN, and MO last week that signify the rapid descent of yield potential…

The market needs to rally, analyst says By: 06/21/2012 @ 11:57am

All doubt about the US drought was removed Monday in the Crop Progress Report, as once again corn (-3% to 63% G/E) and soybeans (-4% to 56% G/E) both declined significantly.   That drops the Pro Ag yield…

All need it, some corn fields go without rain By: 06/13/2012 @ 8:01am

Dry weather is now stressing corn and soybeans in the central Corn Belt.  In IA, ILL, IN, OH, and MO  crop conditions have declined due to a lack of recent rainfall and the depletion of topsoil…

WANTED: Rain, rain, and more rain By: 06/06/2012 @ 11:00am

This is the time of the year, moving into mid-June, when the importance of US weather on grain markets is paramount. Good weather, for the next 45 days, can translate into a very large corn crop, which is the…

Grains battle outside factors By: 05/31/2012 @ 8:17am

Outside markets have had an impact on grains the last few weeks, with some major changes in crude oil, the dollar, and US interest rates. If not for these triple-play influences, grains might have had a rally…

A bucket of bearish news has emerged By: 05/24/2012 @ 8:02am

Recently, we talked about how the soybean/corn price ratio had gotten out of hand for the 'actual' fundamentals vs. the USDA projected fundamentals.  USDA is still using intended acreage figures…

Soybean/corn price ratio eyed By: 05/17/2012 @ 7:01am

The soybean/corn price ratio reached a long time high after the May 10 crop report at 2.7.  However, that historically high ratio quickly crashed, as there are a number of factors that made the…

Bulls and bears set to dance By: 05/10/2012 @ 9:20am

After watching a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde nature of the grain markets last week, with the soybean market rallying to above the 2011 highs of $14.50 on the SAM crop problems. That opened up the possibility of…

Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde-like grain markets By: 05/03/2012 @ 7:27am

Grains continue to exhibit a Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde mentality this week, as they rally on news out of South America (SAM) on further cuts in the soybean crop estimates there.  But then we get…

Markets move differently By: 04/26/2012 @ 6:50am

This week, soybean prices have broken out above recent resistance, moving to the highest prices since 2008, and above the summer of 2011 highs near $14.50.  Running close to $15 before…

A typical April weather market? By: 04/19/2012 @ 10:20am

Typically, in April, the grain market is all about weather, weather, weather.  So far this spring, the weather has been nearly ideal, with an extremely warm March readying the ground for…

Weather boosts plantings By: 04/12/2012 @ 10:26am

While lots of attention recently has been on the latest reports and data, U.S. weather continues to impress.  After the warmest weather on record for Jan, Feb, and March for most of the US, which melted…

Planting weather eyed By: 04/05/2012 @ 9:54am

The USDA report was bullish, with the stocks numbers smaller than expected and total acreage smaller than expected (although corn was large).  Interestingly, only two million more acres are…

Report to impact new vs. old crop By: 03/29/2012 @ 9:44am

The March 30 USDA Planting Intentions Report will be out Friday. It could be a barnburner, combined with the Quarterly Stocks report out that same day.   Pro Ag is very concerned there will be more…

Potential downside reversal? By: 03/22/2012 @ 8:53am

Grains are having a tough week so far this week, with corn and wheat running to new highs early Monday morning, only to turn lower by Monday afternoon and form a daily downside reversal. That was followed by…

South American yields disappoint By: 03/14/2012 @ 3:18pm

South American yields, thus far, have been disappointing. As a result, soybean prices have rallied further from last week's levels. That has brought the corn market back above resistance marks as well…

March madness for corn, soy By: 03/07/2012 @ 7:48am

Last week, we suffered through significant downside weekly reversals in the charts of crude oil, gold, and silver.  The downside weekly reversals were probably most impressive in the metals, with huge…

Are market bears lurking? By: 03/01/2012 @ 5:53am

The USDA Ag Outlook numbers were bearish as expected, and it's likely that more bad news will be found later this month.  In the March 30 Planting Intentions Report, it's likely the bearish…

Multiple-year hedges recommended By: 02/22/2012 @ 3:47pm

The USDA will update their long range U.S. crop projections this week. Any changes from the November time frame will be made when they put together the Feb. 13 released numbers and this week when they release…

Ag Outlook numbers eyed this week By: 02/15/2012 @ 8:07am

This week's USDA 10-year agricultural projections have market-watchers reacting with a negative tone. In fact, the government's numbers are seen as surprisingly bearish for the coming two years. The…

Ag Outlook can spur bulls By: 02/08/2012 @ 10:38am

The USDA will release new 10-year agricultural projections Monday. USDA publishes the projections each year in February.   Recall that it was in this report in 2007 that the bull market of Ag commodities…

World weather problems overdone? By: 02/01/2012 @ 7:44am

The recent South American (SAM) drought has been receiving a great deal of attention recently, with some media outlets claiming the SAM "drought" has impacted yields severely in affected areas, and eminent…

Selling opportunities for corn producers By: 01/25/2012 @ 8:06am

Dry weather in southern South America has once again emerged. For the next seven days, Argentina and southern Brazil are expected to experience a dry forecast.   That is providing support to the market…

Bearish surprise; S.A. drought ending? By: 01/18/2012 @ 10:01am

USDA dealt us a bearish surprise last Thursday with slightly larger US production numbers than expected, and also revised upward other countries production (like the FSU countries of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and…

Grain run over? By: 01/12/2012 @ 9:03am

The recent South American (SAM) drought has brought a great deal of attention to the grain markets recently, with corn and soybeans rallying to two-month highs on strong gains of 80c in corn and…

S.A. drought ending? By: 01/05/2012 @ 10:31am

The recent South American (SAM) drought has pushed grain prices much higher in recent weeks, with corn pushing back above $6.60 March futures briefly or an 80-cent recovery from the recent lows. Now are…

Drought threatens South American crops By: 12/29/2011 @ 8:50am

Grains have had a strong rally recently, rallying about 70c in corn the past two weeks and showing some life in an otherwise dead market.  We just recently ran to new lows in corn, soybeans, and…

Technical confusion By: 12/22/2011 @ 9:14am

After penetrating through recent lows last week, grains have had a nice run higher this week, starting with large gains Monday for corn that have had follow through strength through the middle of the…

A commodities sell-off By: 12/15/2011 @ 8:31am

Grain markets have taken a few runs at the recent lows lately. On Wednesday, March corn traded at $5.80 and Jan soybean futures in the $10 range.  This is the third time we have taken a run at these price…

Triple price bottoms rarely hold By: 12/07/2011 @ 12:17pm

Corn tested recent lows yesterday, but bounced nicely from those lows to close 12 cents higher on the day.  The only trouble is we are dealing with what looks now like a triple bottom. As we mentioned a…

A pause in the recent break? By: 12/01/2011 @ 7:54am

Grain prices dropped sharply until finding support from $5.70-$5.80 in Dec corn, and relative support areas in other grains (wheat and soybeans). Corn now has formed what looks like a triple bottom, a…

Collapse in grain prices By: 11/25/2011 @ 10:47am

We warned producers last week about a potential collapse in grain prices if we tested the recent lows and the support levels failed at $6.30 Dec corn and $11.70 Jan soybeans. Unfortunately, these levels did…

Testing recent lows? By: 11/17/2011 @ 1:29pm

Grains have had some time now to digest the recent USDA report, which basically found smaller US crops (wheat, corn, and soybeans), but also found that world production offset much of the reduction in…

Historic low corn/soybean ratio eyed By: 11/10/2011 @ 8:28am

USDA's Nov. report was out this week, with another round of smaller U.S. crop sizes, but larger world crop production.   The U.S. corn crop was reduced another 1.4 bu/acre, as Pro Ag expected, with…

Grain markets reach stalemate By: 11/03/2011 @ 9:32am

Grains prices seem to have reached a stalemate, with corn teetering between $6.30-$6.60 Dec corn and soybeans from $11.80-$12.50 in price.   Wheat is basically "corn2", with wheat prices at a…

A 'bear' soybean flag forming? By: 10/27/2011 @ 7:57am

Grains have shown some independent strength recently, with corn rallying from a low of $5.80 to run to $6.65 Dec.  Soybeans gained from $11.50 to over $12.50 before losing some of that gain…

Is the harvest bottom in? -Ray Grabanski By: 10/20/2011 @ 6:56am

Grains have rallied back nicely from lows in early October. Just last week, the markets gained over a dollar in soybeans, and accompanying gains in wheat and corn.   However, so far this week grains have…

Rally, but negative world news By: 10/13/2011 @ 8:35am

Grains have rallied recently, with Tuesday's limit up move in corn (40c gains) and large rally in other grains pushing grains up in the recent 7 day period.  That has pushed corn 70c above its lows…

Harvest pressure? By: 10/07/2011 @ 1:32pm

Harvest is expanding under excellent harvest weather, with very warm and dry conditions across most of the US the past week that is allowing rapid harvest progress of corn and soybeans.  It also is…

Week of extended losses By: 09/29/2011 @ 7:24am

Grains extended their losses this week, with a recovery early week only to be met by increased selling yesterday that led to another washout in market price levels.   We are now breaking below…

Yield hikes seen for next report By: 09/15/2011 @ 2:51pm

Last week we talked about how the USDA Sept. report may hold some surprises.  Well, the crop sizes in corn were about as anticipated, with the 148 bu yield and 5 bu/acre yield cut were well…

The September Report is coming By: 09/08/2011 @ 1:51pm

The Sept. USDA report is coming on Monday, and many are asking whether or not it will contain any surprises like the last report. Traders will be watching for shockingly low soybean production numbers, and a…

Corn yield drops seen By: 09/01/2011 @ 8:10am

While July was a very hot month in 2011, August did not continue that heat, effectively leaving a 2011 crop that is likely not nearly as damaged as the big drought years of 1980, 1988 or similar type…

Bullish corn at $7.40 is risky By: 08/25/2011 @ 8:12am

Recently, grain markets have received all bullish news, with media reports of smaller than expected yields likely for corn and soybeans in 2011, and USDA's August report numbers that were shockingly low…

The power of a picture By: 08/05/2011 @ 8:07am

By the end of the day Tuesday, the corn market was limit up. Why?  A big reason was various pictures of pollinated corn cobs! In the Internet age, pictures of crops can be sent to someone’s entire…

Did heat hurt pollination? By: 08/03/2011 @ 2:06pm

Corn markets rallied sharply Tuesday on anticipation that heat has hurt pollination of corn in southern areas where the heat has persisted through the last half of July.  Its likely there is some impact…

Weather locks prices-Ray Grabanski By: 07/28/2011 @ 7:55am

So far, the heat has persisted and prices continue to hold at very high levels. This is in spite of a yield potential that is still indicating a crop size very close to USDA's last July report…

Weather, weather, weather-Ray Grabanski By: 07/20/2011 @ 2:54pm

The market now is dictated by three main items:  Weather, weather, and weather!  After all, it's July and the heat dome of doom has set itself up in the central Corn Belt where it is providing…

Opportunity knocks-Ray Grabananski By: 07/13/2011 @ 7:01am

Grain prices have rallied back after the break from the June 30 report. That data showed more corn acreage and stocks were higher than expected, with prices at the levels they were at before the…

Corn market trouble?-Ray Grabanski By: 07/06/2011 @ 7:36am

Grain market bulls have recently been on the run, hoping to avoid being turned into steers in recent weeks as they have lost a lot of equity.   Most of that was due to the recent USDA acreage report…

Report revision talk underway-Ray Grabanski By: 06/30/2011 @ 11:34am

Today is the USDA report, long awaited as it contains the projected planted acreage for corn, soybeans, and wheat.   These were much anticipated numbers, with all eyes focused on corn acreage and…

A long 'bull' run-Ray Grabanski By: 06/23/2011 @ 2:21pm

It's been a long bull market for grains, with prices rising for almost one year straight, on the production problems around the world, and demand.  The high use of grains from the U.S. resulted…

A North Dakota disaster-Ray Grabanski By: 06/16/2011 @ 7:30am

This week's rain events, across the northern Plains and North Dakota, likely ended the planting season for the state, leaving a tremendous amount of unplanted HRS wheat, barley, and durum acreage unseeded…

What crop disaster?-Ray Grabanski By: 06/08/2011 @ 7:47am

The past 10 days have been a huge turnaround for the eastern Corn Belt in planting conditions.  They went from virtually nothing planted in OH (only 19% of the corn to May 30) to a much improved…

Crunch time for planters-Ray Grabanski By: 06/02/2011 @ 7:26am

It's been a long spring for producers in the HRS wheat belt and the eastern Corn Belt to this date, with planting progress lagging terribly vs. normal at this late time of year.  It is becoming…

Corn bull rages-Ray Grabanski By: 05/25/2011 @ 1:40pm

Corn prices are within striking distance of their new-crop December highs, as we move into the final stages of what has been a late planted crop for 2011.   The eastern Corn Belt states of OH and PA are…

Planting progress eyed-Ray Grabanski By: 05/19/2011 @ 7:29am

We talked last week about how the market was focused on only the bearish side of the market. That reasoning was supported by the expectation that prices had already allocated out the short crop from 2010…

Report's bullish data ignored: Ray Grabanski By: 05/11/2011 @ 2:14pm

Today's USDA report was filled with information for both the bulls and the bears, but it was the bearish items that got noted in trade, with price plummeting limit down in corn, sharply lower in…

Farmers, markets struggle - Ray Grabanski By: 05/05/2011 @ 1:43pm

While farmers are struggling to get the crop planted in what is turning out to be one of the latest springs on record, the markets are also struggling to maintain their current high prices. …

Markets eyeing crop weather By: 04/28/2011 @ 10:08am

Weather continues to be the story in the US, as winter wheat is failing in TX, and just-in-time rains prevent a complete disaster in OK and KS this week.  But still, much more rain is needed in western…

Ray Grabanski: Markets eyeing weather By: 04/28/2011 @ 8:00am

Weather continues to be the story in the US, as winter wheat is failing in TX, and just-in-time rains prevent a complete disaster in OK and KS this week.  But still, much more rain is needed in western…

Ray Grabanski: Rain stops corn rally? By: 04/21/2011 @ 7:23am

Grains had a very strange trading day Wednesday, with prices starting sharply  higher, but ending sharply lower for wheat and corn, with the heaviest  losses in the corn market.   The markets…

Ray Grabanski: Spring markets By: 04/14/2011 @ 6:06pm

As we move into spring, we've already had the big March acreage and stocks reports, and the strong market reaction to the upside due to the tighter than expected corn stocks.  The April USDA…

Ray Grabanski: Skyrocketing prices By: 04/07/2011 @ 12:39pm

After shooting to record levels this week, the corn market is taking a slight break, as it determines whether or not it is necessary to run even higher. Grains rocketed higher last week, following the USDA…

Ray Grabanski: Traders, long or short? By: 03/31/2011 @ 11:48am

It's report day this morning as I write this, and much will be said and written about the numbers from today's prospective acreage and stocks report.   As always, there will be some surprises…

Ray Grabanski: Price direction? By: 03/24/2011 @ 6:27am

Grains bounced back nicely from sharply lower trade in early March, with prices rallying back sharply on Thursday and Friday to move to 60% retracements of losses suffered in early March.  The break…

Ray Grabanski: Market top? By: 03/17/2011 @ 11:43am

There have been some concerning price signals recently in commodities, of all kinds (grains, metals, softs, crude oil and energies), that are indicating potential highs may have finally been formed, especially…

Ray Grabanski: Reports, spring coming By: 03/10/2011 @ 12:18pm

As the sun rises on a Mid-March day, we await another USDA report which typically is full of dull news in March, but today may be slightly different as the world starts this March, 2011 with some very…

Pegging crop insurance rates By: 03/09/2011 @ 9:26am

While insurance prices finished forming during February, we were blessed to get some very high prices established for the 2011 crop year, with the highest prices ever for insurance price elections with $6.01…

Ray Grabananski: High crop insurance rates By: 03/03/2011 @ 1:10pm

While insurance prices finished forming during February, we were blessed to get some very high prices established for the 2011 crop year, with the highest prices ever for insurance price elections with $6.01…

Ray Grabanski: Cotton top showing the way? By: 02/24/2011 @ 7:12am

Cotton prices finally appear to have blown their top off Friday, moving limit up for the second day in a row, and then moving limit down the same day to finish with huge losses.  Since then it…

USDA weighs in By: 02/17/2011 @ 8:07am

USDA has weighed in on the big bull market of 2010/11, with its most recent report in February showing even tighter corn stocks led by improving demand at a time when demand needs to be allocated among various…

Ray Grabanski: Bull alive and well By: 02/09/2011 @ 4:30pm

The bull market in grains is alive and well, thank you, as corn once again rallied to new highs today on yet another cut in ending stocks in the monthly USDA report.  In February, we got another cut…

Ray Grabanski: Bull reappears By: 02/03/2011 @ 8:03am

The bull market has reemerged this week in grains, with new recent highs in corn, wheat, and soybeans. All commodities have regained the bull market status after small losses last week. The tight stocks…

Ray Grabanski: Bull markets continue By: 01/27/2011 @ 9:13am

Bull markets continue for now in grains, with wheat leading the way. Recent global weather concerns impacting wheat supplies registered to the market, with Australian news of a sale of feed wheat to…

Ray Grabanski: Corn trouble? By: 01/20/2011 @ 11:35am

Corn prices reversed yesterday after running to new highs, closing with sharp losses and forming a downside daily reversal on charts.  But this has happened before, most notably on the day of…

Ray Grabanaski:The bull runs By: 01/13/2011 @ 8:00am

Grains finally broke out of their previous ranges, with corn and soybeans leading the way Wednesday, with rallies to new highs in both grains.  That was a very positive sign, and very encouraging for…

Grains slowly break out By: 12/30/2010 @ 10:16am

Grains are slowly breaking out of their recent price ranges, with soybeans and corn running to new recent highs lately on continued dry weather in South America.  Argentina, especially, is experiencing…

Old, high grain prices near By: 12/23/2010 @ 9:51am

Grains are all approaching their recent highs. Wheat, corn, and soybeans are within striking distance of the two-year highs made for all three crops.  This indeed is going to be a very Merry Christmas for…

Watching & waiting By: 12/15/2010 @ 1:49pm

The grain market is taking a wait and see approach, with the market teetering below resistance marks at the old highs in wheat, corn, and soybeans.  That's the good news for bears, as the market has…

Watching & waiting By: 12/15/2010 @ 1:47pm

The grain market is taking a wait and see approach, with the market teetering below resistance marks at the old highs in wheat, corn, and soybeans.  That's the good news for bears, as the market has…

Decision time -- Ray Grabanski By: 12/09/2010 @ 9:06am

Grains have continued their recovery this week, gaining back even more and approaching the yearly highs again in corn and soybeans, with wheat running back to the old highs. This was quite a retracement for…

Ray Grabanski: Thanks for high prices By: 11/26/2010 @ 7:05am

Grain prices have had a healthy run higher in 2010, in spite of relatively decent US yields of most crops.  That has allowed farmers to have another good year in 2010, not quite as good as 2008, but…

Commodity highs finally formed? By: 11/18/2010 @ 12:36pm

Last week we commented on the disappointing reaction to the USDA November report, and how it had showed the first indication that the bull market was tired.  Since then we have formed a weekly downside…

Markets march on with elections over By: 11/05/2010 @ 8:37am

Our election is over, and while the Republicans can celebrate their wins in the House and gains in the Senate, it might also be true that now that no one party controls the House, Senate, and Presidency that…

Markets march on with elections over By: 11/04/2010 @ 2:41pm

Our election is over, and while the Republicans can celebrate their wins in the House and gains in the Senate, it might also be true that now that no one party controls the House, Senate, and Presidency that…

Ray Grabanski: Grains hold gains By: 10/28/2010 @ 8:38am

Grains for the most part are holding all of their gains after the USDA shocker of an October report, and now that the Nov. report is not far off (where once again they will revise the corn and soybean yields)…

Calm before one more storm? By: 10/21/2010 @ 8:37am

Grains have been calm the recent week, with corn trading with small losses the past 5 days following the two limit up days after the USDA report.  Soybeans have wallowed in the recent…

Ray Grabanski: Corn, soy prices explode to new highs By: 10/14/2010 @ 8:51am

Grain prices exploded to new highs in corn and soybeans after, last Friday's blockbuster USDA report, where corn yields were dropped record amounts during an October report of a non-drought year.It was…

USDA numbers & the trade By: 10/07/2010 @ 9:18am

Grains last week made it look like the top has been placed in the market, with downside weekly reversals in corn and soybeans following up a week where wheat formed a downside weekly reversal.  Yet, so…

USDA numbers & the trade By: 10/07/2010 @ 9:17am

Grains last week made it look like the top has been placed in the market, with downside weekly reversals in corn and soybeans following up a week where wheat formed a downside weekly reversal.  Yet, so…

Crunch time? By: 09/30/2010 @ 10:53am

Last week we talked about how markets were at a pivot point for corn and soybean markets, as both rallied sharply to new highs, yet there were some cracks in the bull market with some moves lower in corn…

Corn-topping action By: 09/16/2010 @ 3:20pm

Corn prices continue to rise the past week, pushing up a little faster recently as prices have pushed near $5 already, after topping $4.50 just last week.  Prices continue to accelerate their…

Ray Grabanski: Corn-topping action? By: 09/16/2010 @ 9:49am

Corn prices continue to rise the past week, pushing up a little faster recently as prices have pushed near $5 already, after topping $4.50 just last week.  Prices continue to accelerate their…

Ray Grabanski: Corn is still king By: 09/09/2010 @ 9:58am

Last week, we talked about how the corn market has been the leader of the grains, and finally last week it rallied past its recent 18 month range below $4.50, turning trend to higher and keeping the…

Grains headed lower? By: 08/26/2010 @ 7:48am

Last week we indicated that the corn and soybean rally was in jeopardy, and this week we have more evidence that indeed these markets may have topped for the pre-harvest period in the US.  Soybeans formed…

Grains headed lower? By: 08/26/2010 @ 7:47am

Last week we indicated that the corn and soybean rally was in jeopardy, and this week we have more evidence that indeed these markets may have topped for the pre-harvest period in the US.  Soybeans formed…

Corn, soybean rally in jeopardy? By: 08/19/2010 @ 10:23am

Corn and soybeans have been rallying while wheat has struggled recently, with prices dropping back below $7 after trading over $1.50 higher than that at one time at the peak of the market.   Wheat…

Corn, soybean rally in jeopardy? By: 08/19/2010 @ 10:20am

Corn and soybeans have been rallying while wheat has struggled recently, with prices dropping back below $7 after trading over $1.50 higher than that at one time at the peak of the market.   Wheat…

Ray Grabanski: Wheat market top? By: 08/11/2010 @ 4:34pm

Wheat market has dropped enough from recent highs to have formed a potential top in the wheat market, a factor that may have major implications for the corn and soybean markets.  Wheat prices…

Ray Grabanski: Profitable 2010 due to FSU drought By: 08/03/2010 @ 11:00pm

Grains have all rallied to profitable levels again, with corn over $4 futures,  soybeans over $10 futures, and wheat over $7 futures.  These are profitable  levels for production of the 2010…

Ray Grabanski: Wheat, the "Lone Ranger" By: 07/27/2010 @ 11:00pm

Rallying to new highs this week, wheat prices have continued to rally on drought concerns in the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries of Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. That is in spite of…

Ray Grabanski: Has summer grain rally ended or been extended? By: 07/21/2010 @ 11:00pm

Last week, we talked about how grains probably should be sold at some point in the coming weeks, with strong hints that the rally was probably getting a little overheated for the current situation.  The…

Ray Grabanski: Time to start selling grain? By: 07/14/2010 @ 11:00pm

Grains have had a sharp rally since June 29th when we made our lows for recent prices.  Corn has rallied over $.50, beans $1, and wheat about $.75 since that time, and now we have to ask ourselves, "How…

Declining corn, soybean yield potential bullish By: 07/07/2010 @ 11:00pm

Corn and soybean conditions have been declining fairly rapidly the past 3 weeks, with corn in a position where there is no room for a crop size less than the current projected 163.5 bushel/acre yield in the…

MEDIA CENTERmore +
This container should display a .swf file. If not, you may need to upgrade your Flash player.
Big Picture: CME Trading Weather