End of the Month Weather Outlook

As we progess through the beginning of the harvest season, mother nature will lend a helping hand with the approach of much drier and eventually warmer weather pattern. Examining our teleconnections, a postive PNA/NAO combination will send the jet stream northward next week. Other than some showers next Tuesday-Wednesday across the western Corn Belt, a sprawling area of high pressure will center itself across the Ohio Valley Region, lending an extended period of predominantly dry weather.

As we approach the 11-15 day period, ridging across the eastern US should afford more in the way of dry weather across the central/eastern Midwest while northern and western areas may enter a period of unsettled conditions. This will allow for solid dry down and harvest conditions across the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the Midwest including much of the Delta Region. Beyond the 11-15 day period, a continuation of the northward diplacement of the jet stream is being advertised by most mid-range climate models. This *may* keep the frost threat low well into the start of the month, in contrast to the climatological increase in the frost threat.

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The image above shows the 2-meter temperature anomaly forecast from the CFS model for the 26th of September into the 2nd of October. This same model is forecasing similar anomalies into the middle of October, indicating persistence of near to above normal temperatures is possible. IF this were to verify, conditions would be favorable for pushing crops to maturity and would support strong harvest progress (depending on the rainfall situation). Supporting an eventual transition to near to above normal temperatures into October is the reemergence of El Nino. Currently, most objective measures of ENSO, including Nino 3.4 SST anomalies, MEI, and SOI, indicate El Nino-like conditons are in place, with a weak to moderate El Nino possible as we head into the fall and winter months. In a typical winter-time El Nino pattern, the northern tier of the US, including most of the Midwest, experiences above normal temperatures. Thus, depending on the strength of the prevailing El Nino pattern, a warmer rather than cooler winter may be in store for the Midwest.

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EVENING WEATHER UPDATE - 4:55 PM CDT Thursday, September 18, 2014

MIDWEST U.S. - Today was mainly dry and pleasant across the region with highs in the 60's north-central and northeast and 70's elsewhere. The latest European model looks a little cooler for the latter half of the 6-10 day period compared to the previous run, otherwise it looks similar.

MIDWEST 1 to 5 day - Much of the region will remain dry through tomorrow with a few isolated showers in the far west. The next system will bring scattered showers Friday into the weekend ahead of a cool front and mostly light amounts in the .10-.50" range. The western Cornbelt will be dry by Sunday and it looks dry across the area early next week. Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 60's northeast areas to the low to mid 80's in the west portion. The far northwest will cool to the upper 60's on Saturday with 70's and 80's elsewhere and cooling to the 60's and 70's across the region on Sunday into early next week. Morning lows early next week will stay above freezing with some mid to upper 30's for the coldest in much of the Northern cornbelt. The winter wheat planting is now underway with 12% of the crop planted which is slightly above the 5 year average of 11%. NE leads all Midwest states with 26% planted. Some states with less winter wheat production are not reporting any planting at the present time, such as IL and MO.

MIDWEST 6 to 10 day - Above normal temps northwest and near normal southeast with near normal rainfall northwest third and below normal elsewhere across the region.

MIDWEST 11 to 15 day - Mostly above normal temps, near normal far west. Near to above normal rain west and near to below normal east.



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PLAINS WEATHER - Most of the Plains region was dry today, but there were showers in the far southern TX panhandle eastward through north-central TX. Mostly east and southeast from Lubbock. Also, a few scattered showers in the west half of the Northern Plains. Highs today were in the 70's and 80's in the Southern Plains, near 90 in a few spots. The Northern plains were in the 70's and a few low to mid 80's. For the Southern Plains, southern and eastern sections will have showers and some thunderstorms as the remnants of a Pacific hurricane (Odile) continue to affect this area, especially the south portion. Much of the region will have scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and mostly south half for Sunday. Much of the area will receive .50- 2.00" of rain through the weekend, but the GFS and European models indicate some 3.00-5.00+" rainfall for the southern 2/3 of the TX panhandle, south of Interstate 40. The northern part of the S. Plains will have lighter rainfall. A few lingering showers early next week but the bulk of the rainfall over the next 5 days will be this weekend. Highs will be mostly 80's and 90's through early next week, but some of the rainiest areas in the south portion will be held down to the 70's for highs. Above normal temps northwest half and near normal southeast for the 6-10 day outlook. Mostly above normal rainfall during this time, near normal far eastern areas. The Northern Plains will have a few more scattered showers, mostly light, through early Saturday, otherwise it looks dry this weekend. Highs will be in the 70's and 80's tomorrow then cooling to the 60's and 70's by Sunday with some AM lows on Sunday in the 30's, mostly above freezing.

Wayne Ellis / Meteorologist