EVENING WEATHER UPDATE - 4:40 PM CST Thursday, March 5, 2015

MIDWEST U.S. - Snow ended early to mid morning in areas in IN and OH near the Ohio River. Snow accumulations today were up to 1+ inches in spots very close to the Ohio River in IN and OH through mid-morning. Otherwise, conditions have been dry other than for light lake effect snow showers. Highs reached from near 10 to near 30 west. The current USDA Drought Monitor image showed that the drought areas in the Northern Plains and far northwestern Midwest and in the Southern Plains remained unchanged. However, there was some recession of moderate drought areas in the southern Delta and removal of some abnormally dry and dominant drought areas in the northern part of the Southeast and Ohio Valley. Also, drought conditions in CA remained unchanged. Also, the CPC/IRI weekly ENSO forecast shows that El Nino conditions are most likely through the crop year. El Nino chances are 58% for March-May, dropping to 50% for September-November and October-December.

1-5 day outlook(March 6-10) Temperatures will be below normal east and central and above normal west. Precipitation will be below normal. There are light rain/snow chances in northern areas Friday night to Saturday and Saturday night to early Sunday night. Also, rain/snow chances will graze areas near the Ohio River on Tuesday. Total precipitation will be less than .1 inch, with no significant snow accumulation expected. Highs will be from near 20 to the 50's Friday, 30's to 50's Saturday, 30's to near 60 Sunday, upper 30's to near 60 Monday, and 40's to 60's Tuesday.

6-10 day outlook(March 11-15) Temperatures will be above normal. Precipitation will be below normal, except near normal far southeast.

11-15 day outlook(March 16-20) Temperatures will be above normal. Precipitation will be mainly near normal.



PLAINS WEATHER - Today was mostly dry, with light rain exiting far southeastern TX early this morning. Highs reached from near 10 to the 40's in the Northern Plains and the 30's and 40's in the Southern Plains. For 1-5 day rainfall, the 12Z ECMWF decreased heavier rainfall chances in far eastern TX and the 12Z GFS increased them. Due to this, only slight chances of heavier rainfall here seem likely at this time. For 6-10 day rainfall, there is sharp model disagreement, with the 12Z ECMWF-EPS indicating no major changes and 12Z GFS-ENS indicating drier conditions. Future model runs must be watched for consistency. There are more model prediction differences in the 11-15 day period, with the 12Z GFS-ENS indicating drier conditions and the 12Z ECMWF-EPS indicating a removal of southern drier conditions. Again, it would be wise to verify consistency after another few model runs. Slightly warmer temperatures are predicted by both the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF models for the 1-5 day period, with the 12Z ECMWF-EPS showing no major changes. The 12Z ECMWF-EPS model is predicting warmer temperatures east in the 6-10 day period with no major changes elsewhere, which disagrees with the 12Z GFS-ENS prediction of warmer temperatures north and cooler temperatures southeast. However, the ECMWF-EPS model seems more believable at this point. There are no major changes from the 00Z-12Z ECMWF-EPS for the 11-15 day period, with slightly cooler temperatures still predicted in most areas. The 00Z-12Z GFS-ENS prediction change was large and likely unreliable, changing from solidly cooler to solidly warmer.

1-5 day outlook Temperatures will be below normal south and above normal north. Precipitation will be below normal, except near normal far south. There will be rain/snow chances in the Northern Plains late Friday to Friday night and Saturday night. Also, there will be rain in the Southern Plains Saturday night to Monday night, lingering over far eastern TX Tuesday. The non-Panhandle regions of TX and OK and far southeastern KS will see the most rain. Total rainfall will be around .1-1 inches in OK and most of TX, with the highest amounts in southeast TX. There will be less than 1 inch of snow in the Northern Plains. There are no winterkill concerns for the five day period. Highs Friday will be in the 30's to 50's in the Northern Plains and in the 40's to near 60 in the Southern Plains. Highs Saturday will be from near 30 to the 50's in the Northern Plains and in the mid 40's to 60's in the Southern Plains. Highs Sunday will be in the 30's to 50's in the Northern Plains and in the 40's to 60's in the Southern Plains. Highs Monday will be in the 40's and 50's in the Northern Plains and from near 50 to near 60 in the Southern Plains. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid 40's to 60's in the Northern Plains and mainly in the 60's in the Southern Plains.

6-10 day outlook Temperatures will be above normal, except near to below normal far southwest. Precipitation will be below normal, except near to above normal far south and far southwest.

11-15 day outlook Temperatures will be above normal north and east and near to below normal south and far west. Precipitation will be mainly near normal.
Matthew Christy / Meteorologist



                                                           

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nice weather 09/18/2014 @ 5:12am nice Visit W3Schools here

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Looking forward to next week's report 04/11/2014 @ 8:39am These probabilities are new to me. Why does the soybean yield forecast seem less impacted by El Nino? Prices aren't going to like a big production year, though.

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Weather Forecast Chicago for 10 days 11/13/2013 @ 1:36pm You can find weather forecast for 10 days on www.weatherforecast10day.com. You can find your location by entering name in the search bar on home page.After that you will get list of search results or your location. When you click on your location you will get 10 day weather forecast and hour by hour forecast for your location. I found them very accurate. Take a look at http://www.weatherforecast10day.com/en/us-illinois/chicago.php

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Days are getting shorter 06/24/2013 @ 7:50am The heat has been good for the crops this past week and I was hoping it would continue for a while. Your projected cool down and the days getting shorter concerns me. A lot of late planted beans. A frost in the first half of September would be very bad. Nice rain last night west of Des Moines. Wind

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Colombia 10/17/2012 @ 12:29pm According to the weather report http://www.agronet.gov.co vides us now Colombia despite its diverse climate predominates the winter in all regions, so it is important to be alert to any emergency

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