Weather Market Commentary

Thursday, April 17, 2014

U.S. corn yield likely to be higher than USDA April Forecast
The best season-ahead climate indicator for corn and soybean yields is El Nino. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts 55% likelihood of El Nino during July-August-September. Based upon several indicators, we expect the probability to increase in May. When El Nino is present in July and August, the likelihood is much higher that summer rainfall will be above normal across the central and western Corn Belt. During El Nino summers, the probability that corn yield beats the 5-yr average is 72% for the nation and 64% for IA. A yield boost is not the only benefit of an El Nino summer. Also, the yield floor is much higher. The frequency that U. S. and Iowa corn yield falls below 85% of the 5-yr average is 0% for the nation and 9% for Iowa. By comparison, during La Nina summers, the opposite of El Nino, probability of catastrophic yield failure is 28% for the nation and 21% for Iowa.
With El Nino providing favorable growing conditions, we expect U. S. corn yield to exceed USDA expectations. We forecast a 67% chance the U. S. corn yield will exceed the April USDA U. S. corn yield forecast of 158.5. Corn production is also very likely to be higher than any of the 5 previous years. Our forecast is a 51% chance of beating the 5-yr high of 164.7. Also, the yield floor is higher with a miniscule 0.275% of yield lower than the 123.4 that was the worst of the previous 5 years. Because April is too early for planting information, we forecast the U. S. Corn Yield using recent yield history and an indicator of El Nino. In May, our forecasts will include planting progress.

We have county-level yield forecasts for corn and soybeans across the Corn Belt. Interested, click here.


2014 Forecast United States Corn Yield (bu/ac)
Yield Level (bu/ac) Probability 2014 Yield will exceed Yield Level
193.7 2.5%
189.0 5.0%
183.6 10.0%
174.8 25.0%
165.1 50.0%
164.7 (High of previous 5 years) 51.0%
158.8 (USDA forecast) 67.0%
155.4 75.0%
146.5 90.0%
141.1 95.0%
136.4 97.5%
123.4 (Low of previous 5 years) 99.725%
We have county-level yield forecasts for corn and soybeans across the Corn Belt. Interested, click here.

CancelPost Comment

Looking forward to next week's report 04/11/2014 @ 8:39am These probabilities are new to me. Why does the soybean yield forecast seem less impacted by El Nino? Prices aren't going to like a big production year, though.

Report Abuse Reply

Weather Forecast Chicago for 10 days 11/13/2013 @ 1:36pm You can find weather forecast for 10 days on www.weatherforecast10day.com. You can find your location by entering name in the search bar on home page.After that you will get list of search results or your location. When you click on your location you will get 10 day weather forecast and hour by hour forecast for your location. I found them very accurate. Take a look at http://www.weatherforecast10day.com/en/us-illinois/chicago.php

Report Abuse Reply

Days are getting shorter 06/24/2013 @ 7:50am The heat has been good for the crops this past week and I was hoping it would continue for a while. Your projected cool down and the days getting shorter concerns me. A lot of late planted beans. A frost in the first half of September would be very bad. Nice rain last night west of Des Moines. Wind

Report Abuse Reply

Colombia 10/17/2012 @ 12:29pm According to the weather report http://www.agronet.gov.co vides us now Colombia despite its diverse climate predominates the winter in all regions, so it is important to be alert to any emergency

Report Abuse Reply

ARGENTINA 08/01/2012 @ 3:34pm we will probably see an increase of export tax from 35 to 40 % as from tomorrow. strong comments.!!

Report Abuse Reply
MEDIA CENTERmore +
This container should display a .swf file. If not, you may need to upgrade your Flash player.
Weather Data Informs Seed Selection

Are you selling new crop grain?

No Sold 10% of expected production Sold 25% Sold 50% Sold more than 50% Other/comment