Weather Market Commentary

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Starting out this morning, corn futures are for July and September are sitting above $5.00. Supporting corn has been the persistently wet weather across portions of the southern Midwest and Delta, which has delayed planting eveywhere execept for Texas and Kansas, both states of which are 2% ahead of schedule. With that being said, exactly how far behind is planting across the northern Delta and southern Midwest? Well, Illinois is 9% behind, Indiana 5%, Ohio 2%, Missouri 7%, and Kentucky 13%. Averaged together, these areas are 7.2% behind schedule. With that in mind, what is the average weekly increase in planting for the next 7 days? Using a 2008-2012 average, we typically see corn plantings increase by 11.4%. Thus, considering we are 7.2% behind in these areas and we average a weekly increase of 11.4%, mathematically speaking we are less than one week behind schedule. Now, do we really expect to see a full 11.4% increase in planting before next week's progress report? Well, due to recent rainfall and a few more below normal days, this number will likely be closer to 5-8%. However, this still puts much of the northern Delta/Cornbelt at less than 2 weeks behind schedule, a much more realistic value than the bullish numbers that have floating around in the trade forums. Of course, local variations may be considerable with areas experiencing planting delays upwards of 3 weeks, but on average delays should be less than two weeks heading into next week. With that being said, what does mother nature have in store for the cornbelt over the next several days? Starting with the near term, cool and dry weather is expected through Friday with a good window of opportunity for fields to dry and fieldwork to resume (More than likely a slow resumption in fieldwork). . Some models do show showers breaking out Friday afternoon across the cornbelt, but much of this will be light and spotty with the European model showing little if any precip). By the time we approach the weekend, rainfall chances will increase across the western cornbelt as a warmer and more seasonable airmass works into the region. Farther east, most of the central and eastern cornbelt and northern Delta will be dry through Sunday. The combination of continued dry weather and warmer temperatures in the 60's and 70's should favor rapid fieldwork progress as 5-day % normal rainfall will be mere 10-25% of normal. Later in the weekend into early next week, rainfall chances will increase across the central and eastern corbelt, but for the 6-10 day timeframe as a whole most of our computer model ensembles favor normal precipitation totals with above normal rainfall across the western cornbelt, which are areas that need the rain. Temperatures also look near to above normal for the 6-10 day period which will favor warming soil temperatures and improved planting conditions across central and eastern parts of the Midwest into the central and northern Delta. With that being said, is the outlook for corn bearish or bullish? Considering the forecast is improving for many of the southern and central growing regions, I would favor mainly bearish weather signals. Beneficial rainfall is also in store for western areas of the cornbelt where rainfall is sorely needed, with heavy rainfall in some of these areas this past weekend already adding an important boost in soil moisture. So once we clear the fog, we see improving fieldwork conditions for central/southern growing regions with opportunites to continue improving soil moisture across western areas. Will that said, what are the odds of corn staying at $5? Time will tell...

Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2012 - All Rights Reserved



CancelPost Comment

Looking forward to next week's report 04/11/2014 @ 8:39am These probabilities are new to me. Why does the soybean yield forecast seem less impacted by El Nino? Prices aren't going to like a big production year, though.

Report Abuse Reply

Weather Forecast Chicago for 10 days 11/13/2013 @ 1:36pm You can find weather forecast for 10 days on www.weatherforecast10day.com. You can find your location by entering name in the search bar on home page.After that you will get list of search results or your location. When you click on your location you will get 10 day weather forecast and hour by hour forecast for your location. I found them very accurate. Take a look at http://www.weatherforecast10day.com/en/us-illinois/chicago.php

Report Abuse Reply

Days are getting shorter 06/24/2013 @ 7:50am The heat has been good for the crops this past week and I was hoping it would continue for a while. Your projected cool down and the days getting shorter concerns me. A lot of late planted beans. A frost in the first half of September would be very bad. Nice rain last night west of Des Moines. Wind

Report Abuse Reply

Colombia 10/17/2012 @ 12:29pm According to the weather report http://www.agronet.gov.co vides us now Colombia despite its diverse climate predominates the winter in all regions, so it is important to be alert to any emergency

Report Abuse Reply

ARGENTINA 08/01/2012 @ 3:34pm we will probably see an increase of export tax from 35 to 40 % as from tomorrow. strong comments.!!

Report Abuse Reply
MEDIA CENTERmore +
This container should display a .swf file. If not, you may need to upgrade your Flash player.
Weather Data Informs Seed Selection

Are you selling new crop grain?

No Sold 10% of expected production Sold 25% Sold 50% Sold more than 50% Other/comment