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Soybeans Close Higher

Soybeans lead an end-of-week rally.

DES MOINES, Iowa --At the close Friday, the September corn futures finished 6¼¢ higher at $4.30¾¢. December corn contracts were 6¢ higher at 4.35¾.

August soybean futures ended 20¼¢ higher at $9.01½. November soybean futures were up 20¼¢ at $9.19¼.

September wheat futures were 9¢ higher at $5.02½.
 
August soymeal futures are $4.20 a short ton higher at $311.20. August soy oil futures were 0.46¢ higher at 28.10¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 16¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials were 45 points higher.

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DES MOINES, Iowa --At midsession Friday, grain futures are higher, led by a rally in soybeans.

The September corn futures are 6½¢ higher at $4.31. December corn contracts are 6½¢ higher at $4.36¼.

August soybean futures are 22¢ higher at $9.03¼. November soybean futures are up 22¼¢ at $9.21¼.

September wheat futures are 13¢ higher at $5.06½.
 
August soymeal futures are $5.00 a short ton higher at $312. August soy oil futures are 0.47¢ higher at 28.11¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 16¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 92 points higher.

The turnaround at the end of the week is welcome news.

“We are higher!” says Jack Scoville of the PRICE group. “Soybeans are leading the way, I think on ideas that trade talks are getting going with China again. The weather is mixed, hot now but then some big storms and cooler by the first part of next week, so I am not sure that is what is running this thing. The rally is led by soybeans so I think it is the potential to make progress on a trade deal more than anything, with some short covering before the weekend after the beatdown this week a part of it, too.”

Others see weather remaining as a factor.

“Today’s rally is a response to the heat canvasing the Midwest,” says Mike North of Commodity Risk Management Group. “That is further compounded by the general sell-off that took prices into well supported price regions.”

Don Roose of U.S. Commodities agrees that talk about China has something to do with higher soybeans prices, along with uncertainty about soybean acreage and conditions of the late-planted crop.

“It’s a higher market in a range-bound trade,” Roose says. The trading range on soybeans is between $8.80 and $9.40, he says. 

Part of the speculation about better prospects for exports came from cash prices that were 30¢ under prices from Brazil earlier today, Roose said. That led to hope for some export shipments from the U.S. to China.

Trump administration trade officials spoke by phone with their counterparts in China Thursday, helping to fuel speculation about progress in breaking the trade war between the two countries.

However, news of any breakthrough may not have reached Congress, where Senate Finance Committee Chair Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has criticized the use of tariffs but defended President Donald Trump’s efforts to change China’s lack of protection of intellectual property.

When asked by Agriculture.com if there are any breakthroughs in trade talks, one of Grassley’s press aides, Michael Zona, said in an email message, “We haven’t been told anything.”

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DES MOINES, Iowa --In early trading Friday, September corn futures are 2¼¢ higher at $4.26¾. December corn contracts are 1¾¢ higher at 4.31½.

August soybean futures are 9¾¢ higher at $8.91. November soybean futures are up 9¾¢ at $9.08¾.

September wheat futures are up 2¼¢ higher at $4.95¾.
 
August soymeal futures are $2.30 a short ton higher at $309.30. August soy oil futures are 0.13¢ higher at 27.77¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.38 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 99 points higher.

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Thursday, the CME Group's farm markets sell off.

At midsession, the Sep. corn futures are 10¢ lower at $4.26. Dec. corn futures are 10½¢ lower at $4.31.
 
Aug. soybean futures are 1¾¢ lower at $8.80¾. November soybean futures are 2¼¢ lower at $8.98¾.

Sep. wheat futures are 7¾¢ lower at $4.97½.

August soymeal futures are $0.10 per short ton lower at $307.40. August soy oil futures are 0.04¢ lower at 27.64¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.78 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 138 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the markets will continue to chop around.

“The corn market will remain in a broad trading channel between $4.30 and $4.60 until we see how this entire crop goes through pollination. A good portion of the crop was planted after June 1. We will have to rely on some good weather in August for good pollination,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “Early in the day yesterday, grains got support due to comments that corn and soybean prevent-plant acres could exceed 10 million acres. However, the grains failed to hold their gains. President Trump announced the U.S. could put tariffs on another $325 billion of Chinese goods. This had the market nervous, since that type of news could stall trade talks again.”

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets trade both sides of unchanged.

At the close, the Sep. corn futures finished ¾¢ higher at $4.36. Dec. corn futures settled ¼¢ higher at $4.41½.
 
Aug. soybean futures settled 5¼¢ lower at $8.82½. November soybean futures closed 5½¢ lower at $9.00½.

Sep. wheat futures closed 2¢ lower at $5.05½.

August soymeal futures finished $0.90 per short ton lower at $307.50. August soy oil futures closed 0.31¢ lower at 27.68¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.84 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 58 points lower.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that the markets could remain choppy.

“Grains are trading mixed today with a wide trading range. The forecast, both short term and long, gives some hopes for the bulls and the bears in this market. Rains and cooler temps would aid the late-plated crop. The talk of a continued weaker dollar could add to the thoughts of a positive export future,” Roose says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says investors may be preparing themselves for a panic trading period.

“One aspect to consider is that we have seen very consistent volume over the last few days, even though prices have been volatile. This suggests we have not seen the panic trade unfold yet. We usually get the panic trade after a big move up in the summer, based on poor weather. Then we see prices collapse. Both on the way up and way down, we see a couple days with huge volume,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The heat that will hit parts of the Corn Belt this week and next week is going to create production problems if it persists into August. Some heat will help push the crop along. However, cranking up the oven during pollination is never good for yields.”

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets extend week’s losses.

At the close, September corn futures finished 5¾¢ lower at $4.35¼; December corn futures finished 5¾¢ lower at $4.41¼.
 
August soybean futures finished 14¢ lower at $8.87¾; November soybean futures ended 14¢ lower at $9.06.

September wheat futures closed ¼¢ lower at $5.07½.

August soy meal futures settled $3.20 per short ton lower at $308.40. August soy oil futures closed 0.29¢ lower at 27.99¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.13 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 27 points lower.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says investors are leaning on this week’s reports for guidance.

“It’s been a lower volume day, with the selling, I guess, coming from the funds,” Scoville says.  

Scoville adds, “The crop condition ratings Monday for corn and beans ticked up and we were expecting lower. The weather this morning indicated some showers and storms for southwest Iowa and southern Nebraska that caught people expecting hot and dusty everywhere today. It will get hot now into the weekend, but it is supposed to warm up this week before cooling down again next week. We might chop around for the rest of this week, until we get a better handle on the weather.”

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says USDA data and weather forecasts have been driving these markets for weeks.

“A couple of weeks ago we started to see buyers step into the market after the dramatic drop post Quarterly Stocks Report and Acreage Report and on the heels of a hotter and drier forecast headed into the pollination window. Traders took this market higher and ahead of the WASDE last week took a risk off mood – afraid to have a position on given the USDA's last report 'stunt,’ ” O’Connell says.  

She added, “After the WASDE proved to be somewhat benign, buyers immediately stepped in and took this market up against the $4.60 technical resistance on Friday and started to take some profit. Hot and dry weather continues to persist in the forecast and will likely hold this market together and invite further buying. Today, we ran up against $4.30 support and we managed to close 5¢ off of that,” O’Connell says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says investors will largely be watching how widespread the hot and sticky weather will cause crop ratings to drop.

“The GFS weather model on Monday changed to show less heat and for only five days in about 30% of the central Corn Belt,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The U.S. soybean crop is in more trouble than the U.S. corn crop. In its weekly Crop Progress Report on Monday, the USDA noted that the U.S. corn crop conditions improved by 1% with 58% rated good to excellent, soybean ratings were also increased by 1% to 54% good to excellent ratings. Five percent (4 million acres) of soybeans have not yet emerged.”

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets closed sharply lower.

At the close, September corn futures finished 13¼¢ lower at $4.41; December corn futures ended 12¼¢ lower at $4.47.
 
August soybean futures settled 11½¢ lower at $9.01¾; November soybean futures closed 11½¢ lower at $9.20.

September wheat futures finished 15¼¢ lower at $5.07¾.

August soy meal futures settled $3.20 per short ton lower at $311.60. August soy oil futures closed 0.03¢ lower at 28.28¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 70¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points lower.

On Monday, the USDA will release its Weekly Crop Progress Report at 3 p.m. (CDT).

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says investors will largely be watching how the widespread hot and sticky weather will cause crop ratings to drop.

“The extended weather forecasts have turned hot and dry for much of the Corn Belt. This heat is forecast to hit right when much of the U.S. corn crop will enter pollination,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The USDA Crop Progress Report today will show corn and soybean ratings about 1% higher than last week. If the heat hits as forecast this week, then conditions will move lower next week in the July 22 report. This is the critical month to watch the trend in corn conditions.”

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