Worldwide Ag Fallout From Ukraine/Russia War?

Soon it will be a year since Russia annexed the Crimea and provoked separatist actions in South-Eastern Ukraine that later had overgrown, in fact, into the war between Ukraine and Russia (though de facto, not de jure).

Currently, the military conflict after months of not very active military confrontation has the potential to break into a full-scale war with the invasion of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine. The consequences of this would be disastrous not only for each of the warring parties, but also to the whole world.


Ukraine: War Slowed Shift to More Corn Acres

Grain production in the Black Sea region is determined by three principal players: Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Grain production in these three countries (as well as exports) is practically stable. In 2013-2014, the three nations produced 38.6 million


Ukraine Grain Exports To Rise

In Ukraine, this year’s total grain crop is a record 64 million metric tons. Because of the annexation of Crimea and part of the Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts by Russia, the actual available crop is about 60.5 mmt.

In the middle of October, the grain export from Ukraine reached 11 mmt (6.2 mmt of wheat, mainly of the feed quality, 1.3 mmt of corn, 3.2 mmt of barley and 150 tmt of other small grains. This means that the total grain export from Ukraine, this marketing year, may be about 35 mmt.


Ukraine Harvest Ending, Eye on War Continues

The Ukrainian harvest season is near the finishing line.

The forecast for the harvest is as follows: total grains – 61.6 mln tons, of which winter wheat is 22.8 mln tons; spring wheat – 0.58 mln tons; barley – 9 mln tons (winter barley is 3.3 mln tons; spring barley – 5.7 mln tons); rye – 0.44 mln tons; corn – 27.2 mln tons; oat – 0.56 mln tons.

About two-thirds of wheat is of poor quality and may be used for feed only. The export of milling wheat will be at most 2 mln tons.


Ukraine Update: War a Shot Away, Ports Eyed

The President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, on Saturday, August 30, after the meeting with Vladimir Putin, made a very troubling statement: "Ukraine is now at the crossroad." Just in a week or two, we will see if there will be a full-scale war with Russia or if Ukraine will give up.


Ukraine Update: High Risk of War

This week, the Ukrainian military forces resumed the anti-terrorist operation (ATO). The hottest spot at the moment is Slaviansk (Donetsk oblast). This city has strategic significance since it is equidistant from three big and very important centers: Donetsk, Dniepropetrovsk, and Kharkiv. At the moment, the Slaviansk is controlled by terrorists who keep as hostages several people, among whom is the American journalist Simon Ostrovsky who works for Vice online.


Corn Planting Enthusiasm Drops in Ukraine

The planting season in Ukraine has started with some advance in time. The decrease in planting area for winter crops by 1 mln hectares to 7 mln hectares was caused by the shift to most profitable (during the last five years) crops – corn, sunflower, and soybeans. Anyway, the current political risks limit the producers’ desire to sharply increase the planting area.