A seasonal factor to rally into the month of May is not looking likely
Wheat markets were generally quiet during the week, with spring wheat gaining on the winter wheats, until after the plantings and stocks reports were released on Friday.
Chicago wheat gapped higher to start the week, with Kansas City following higher. But that was the only bullish action for the week, as prices turned south and steadily moved lower.
Technically, wheat had reversals up on the weekly charts, but futures found support from multiple factors throughout the week.
The USDA has dropped the U.S. wheat acres significantly, in its AG Outlook Forum estimates. It didn't appear to help the farm markets, Friday.
The wheat market ran out of gas this week, but overall still has a record large world carry-out.
Wheat markets got a boost this week from a rare bullish supply/demand report.
Wheat markets found support this week from nervousness over renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
This week, politics had as much to do with price action as fundamentals – talk of slashing trade deals and more rhetoric that threatened to spark trade wars.
The week started out strong for wheat — but that was as good as it got. Follow-through buying from the bullish plantings report quickly faded as reports of better-than-expected rains across the southern and central Plains over the weekend relieved a great deal of the concern about drought and crop stress.
It was the spring wheat market of Minneapolis that saw the most volatility however, as elevators switched basis from the March contract to the May, about a month ahead of normal. The large inverse in March quickly faded with a large outside day lower on the futures.