The markets might be looking for a bullish factor for corn and soybeans in 2015. However, this bullishness will not come from South America this year.
The USDA forecast, this week, a record soybean production for Brazil in 2015/2016 at 97 million tons. This is contrary to what many expected.
Also, Brazil's Agriculture and Livestock Minister, Kátia Abreu, announced that the 2015/2016 crop plan will have a total release of R$ 187.7 billion (US$ 60 billion) in funds to finance the season either in cost or investment. This is a jump of 20% compared to the previous year.
The blockades are an issue of deep concern for farmers and deserve a close market-watch as it affects at least six important agricultural states of Brazil.
With banks and consultancies predicting a GDP contraction in Brazil from -0.5% to -2%, this would be the most severe crisis in the South American country in the last 25 years after a 2014 marked by zero growth. On the other hand, agriculture would not be beaten down as other sectors, especially car manufacturing, housing, and oil.
PORTO ALEGRE, Brazil (Agriculture.com)--The biggest soybean truckers strike in 15 years has broken out in Brazil. It’s slowing soybean transportation and rallying the markets.
On Tuesday, the truckers strike fueled the CME Group's May soybean futures up 26 cents to $10.32 per bushel. The Nov. soybean futures pushed up 20 cents to trade as high as $10.02 per bushel.
This week’s CME Group soybean market is attempting to use a drier weather outlook in Brazil to build a stronger trading base.
After jumping up 28¢, early in the week, the market has set back Wednesday, making market watchers wonder how long the Brazilian weather scare can underpin the market.
Since record crops are expected to come from all major producers of the oilseed, recent weather patterns in some parts of Brazil may bring a much needed bullish slant to the market.
An undisputed claim of analysts and experts is that incomes will grow significantly in big countries like China and India for a while. As a result, there will be more demand for proteins and, consequently, for grains. For U.S. farmers, that means that exports will continue to be steady and will be a bullish factor for grain prices in the coming years.
MORE U.S. CORN, SOYBEAN CONSUMERS
Porto Alegre consultancy Safras & Mercado announced on Monday that the weather has improved in the Center-West of Brazil last week. The rains allowed an advance of the soybean planting to 46% of the projected surface in Brazil. On October 31, the crop progress was at 22%. By the same period of 2013, planting had reached 59% in the area.
If there is one region in the world that could possibly compete with the U.S. as the world’s supplier of corn and soybeans, that would be South America. There has been a significant surface expansion (mostly in Brazil and Argentina) in the last three decad
Brazilians went to the polls Sunday and reelected incumbent Dilma Roussef in a tight race with less than 4% of margin. Roussef will stay four more years as the president of the largest country of Latin America.
When the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it would ease its stimulus program and by sometime raise interest rates, that decision brought several changes to the general outlook of the world's economy. The U.S. dollar, according to some analysts, tends to be stronger around the world. In the case of South America, the top America competitor at the international grain supply, currencies may devalue even more because of local issues.