DJ Technical Special: Wheat Bulls Exhausted After Big Runup
Jim Wyckoff - DJ - 1 hr 2 mins ago
December soft red winter wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade late last week scored a fresh 22-month high of $8.68 a bushel. Prices have since backed off sharply to suggest the bulls have become exhausted and that a near-term market top is in place.
As supplies tighten, commodities may compete with each other for acreage. With the recent sharp rally in wheat prices due primarily to drought conditions in Europe and Russia, wheat futures have made a significant advance, and are looking to attract producers to plant more for 2011.
I get a lot of questions about pricing grain in the 'out years', 2011 and 2012.
In general, I have been cool to the idea. For one thing, I have not done it myself, so I cannot speak from experience. Another factor is that there is so much time between now and the time the crop is harvested that economic factors, such as input costs, can change.
This week's USDA Weekly Export Sales Report shows the effects of world grain production problems.
Wheat exports last week were 854,000 metric tons, up 61% from the four-week average and new crop sales for after June 1, 2011 were 572,000. New-crop year sales are unheard of this time of year, but long term wheat production and availability remain in question. Total sales were 1.426 m.m.t. with sales to every corner of the earth. Egypt was in for the second consecutive week after avoiding U.S. wheat the past season, as they bought heavily on Russian ports.
World wheat suppliers cancel exports, U.S. wheat sought.
Vladimir Putin announced this morning that there would be an export ban on Russian wheat and grains from August 15th to December 31st. Ships that are currently loading will be allowed to finish and then the Russian loadings will stop. With this government action, anticipated for several weeks, export sales contracts will be cancelled. Buyers will need to find other suppliers or hold off on purchases.
Funds go long corn
Weather remains wet
Agriculture.com Chicago Markets Bureau Chief Mike McGinnis found tall corn, green soybeans, and aerial crop spraying this week in McLean County, Illinois.
Weather and China remain key market focus