It’s becoming more and more likely that U.S. crops in 2018 will not be a failure, and possibilities of threats to the crop are waning as well.
With this kind of topic dominating trade, it becomes difficult to predict the market direction.
This is an unusual summer trading season, indeed, as the past month it’s been all about politics, government policy, and trade rather than weather.
The only reason possible for a sharp sell-off at this time is the trade negotiations that are going on or, maybe more accurately, not going on.
We used to think a 7% correction lower meant a potential top in the market. But not this year.
Overall, it’s surprising how good the crop is rated in most categories, considering the unusual spring we’ve had.
Weather is becoming more bullish, too, as recent rains were disappointing in coverage and amounts.
Weather and trade talks are the main drivers of the soybean market.
It’s hard to plant when soil temperatures are so cold and also wet.
Finally, after a horrid March and April across most of the U.S. Corn Belt, May has arrived along with some farmers out in the fields.