President, Progressive Ag
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Ray Grabanski: Rain stops corn rally?

Grains had a very strange trading day Wednesday, with prices starting sharply 

higher, but ending sharply lower for wheat and corn, with the heaviest 

losses in the corn market.  

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Ray Grabanski: Spring markets

As we move into spring, we've already had the big March acreage and stocks reports, and the strong market reaction to the upside due to the tighter than expected corn stocks.  The April USDA report wasn't nearly as positive, but the market reacted positively anyway since they just assumed that USDA expected price rationing such that stocks of corn will not get below 675 mb (in other words, prices will get high enough so that we will have enough stocks left anyway).  

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Ray Grabanski: Price direction?

Grains bounced back nicely from sharply lower trade in early March, with prices rallying back sharply on Thursday and Friday to move to 60% retracements of losses suffered in early March.  The break seemed to flow from better than expected crops in Brazil (corn and soybeans) and Argentina (soybeans and wheat).  Also, improving conditions for planting and winter wheat in the FSU (especially Ukraine) is giving hope to the wheat markets that we can rebuild stocks across the world.  Russia and Ukraine might even be back in the export markets in 2012!

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Ray Grabanski: Market top?

There have been some concerning price signals recently in commodities, of all kinds (grains, metals, softs, crude oil and energies), that are indicating potential highs may have finally been formed, especially softs and energies.  Recall that softs have been the driving force higher in the CRB index, with prices well above 2008 highs, as they have spearheaded the 2010/11 market rally.  But soft markets have taken a turn for the worse, with most well off recent highs and indicating that potential tops have been formed.  

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Ray Grabanski: Reports, spring coming

As the sun rises on a Mid-March day, we await another USDA report which typically is full of dull news in March, but today may be slightly different as the world starts this March, 2011 with some very tight stocks and nervous buyers, as we move into the start of another production season.  With stocks very tight in corn and soybeans, and 

relatively tight in wheat and with a cotton market raging at all-time world history highs, it is indeed a worrisome situation for grain buyers.  

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Pegging crop insurance rates

While insurance prices finished forming during February, we were blessed to get some very high prices established for the 2011 crop year, with the highest prices ever for insurance price elections with $6.01 corn, $13.49 soybeans (beans in the teens), cotton at $1.23/lb, and spring wheat at $9.89 (only topped by 2008).  

Cotton also came in with a huge price of $1.23/lb, with all these prices likely to attract acreage to the crop regardless of what prices do from here on out.  That has to have farmers smiling when penciling out the 2011 crop this winter!

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Ray Grabananski: High crop insurance rates

While insurance prices finished forming during February, we were blessed to get some very high prices established for the 2011 crop year, with the highest prices ever for insurance price elections with $6.01 corn, $13.49 soybeans (beans in the teens), cotton at $1.23/lb, and spring wheat at $9.89 (only topped by 2008).  

Cotton also came in with a huge price of $1.23/lb, with all these prices likely to attract acreage to the crop regardless of what prices do from here on out.  That has to have farmers smiling when penciling out the 2011 crop this winter!

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