Right now, the soybean market is trading overprices, with a large carryout estimate, analyst says.
Weather, USDA data to drive the farm markets going forward, analyst says.
This year’s crop-season is producing average crops, analyst says.
It’s worth watching the weather patterns for the months of September and October.
The one constant this past year has been a much-worse-than-normal basis for most crops (corn, wheat, and soybeans), this analyst says.
In the past week, we’ve had a bearish USDA August report on 8/10, and weather has turned nearly ideal making the weather also bearish.
Last week we talked about the forecast change from warm/dry Corn Belt weather pattern to a cooler and wetter pattern. For the most part, that forecast has come to fruition in much of the Corn Belt, even in the Northwest, which has been suffering from droughty conditions in July. The best rains in a long time came to the Northwest last week, helping to alleviate some of the drought conditions and improve the crop conditions.
While crop yield potential hasn’t changed much in 2017 for corn and soybeans from spring planting to now, prices have fluctuated a great deal.
It’s clear that the U.S. 2017 crop is not as good as last year. However, there is still a lot of weather to play out before harvest.
If market tops are being signaled, aggressive selling could be in order, analyst says.