The season is only about half done, this analyst says, so there is a lot of weather left to be traded.
Last week we talked about a potential weather pattern change, one that would provide cooler and wetter weather than normal – a shift from the warm/dry pattern that we’d been in to start the month of June. That weather pattern change occurred in the past week, with temperatures cooling off to below normal across most of the Corn Belt last week, with that forecast to continue the next seven days. However, just as a weather pattern can change from hot/dry to cool/wet, it can also change back again! And that is exactly what is forecast in about another week.
The past few weeks have seen weather that was much warmer than normal across the Corn Belt and northern Plains, with rainfall amounts also less than normal.
The drought that started in the northwest Corn Belt and HRS wheat country expanded last week, depleting soil moisture and cutting crop ratings.
2017 is shaping up to be an interesting year, this analyst says.
Will 2017 go down as a very cool year? What impact will that have on final yields? There is still plenty of time to impact the market by the summer weather.
It's actually a planting season that thus far looks about average, hence the reluctance of the market to move much.
For the first week in over a year, winter wheat yield models from Progressive Ag declined significantly this past week.
As planting progress plods along, we also are dealing with the issue of how much damage occurred to the Kansas crop from the snowstorm the last weekend in April.
It was a big day on Monday for grains, as the heavy snow in northwest Kansas over the weekend likely damaged boot stage or later wheat by mashing it down to the ground.