The one constant this past year has been a much-worse-than-normal basis for most crops (corn, wheat, and soybeans), this analyst says.
In the past week, we’ve had a bearish USDA August report on 8/10, and weather has turned nearly ideal making the weather also bearish.
Last week we talked about the forecast change from warm/dry Corn Belt weather pattern to a cooler and wetter pattern. For the most part, that forecast has come to fruition in much of the Corn Belt, even in the Northwest, which has been suffering from droughty conditions in July. The best rains in a long time came to the Northwest last week, helping to alleviate some of the drought conditions and improve the crop conditions.
While crop yield potential hasn’t changed much in 2017 for corn and soybeans from spring planting to now, prices have fluctuated a great deal.
It’s clear that the U.S. 2017 crop is not as good as last year. However, there is still a lot of weather to play out before harvest.
If market tops are being signaled, aggressive selling could be in order, analyst says.
Analyst: Finally, grain prices have done something that is fun to write about again!
The season is only about half done, this analyst says, so there is a lot of weather left to be traded.
Last week we talked about a potential weather pattern change, one that would provide cooler and wetter weather than normal – a shift from the warm/dry pattern that we’d been in to start the month of June. That weather pattern change occurred in the past week, with temperatures cooling off to below normal across most of the Corn Belt last week, with that forecast to continue the next seven days. However, just as a weather pattern can change from hot/dry to cool/wet, it can also change back again! And that is exactly what is forecast in about another week.
The past few weeks have seen weather that was much warmer than normal across the Corn Belt and northern Plains, with rainfall amounts also less than normal.