Hog slaughter for the week came to 2.215 million head, according to USDA’s weekly packer survey. That comes with only 412,000 head for today and 21,000 for Saturday. It was under our 2.227 estimate. Smaller than expected supplies, at the time of year with the smallest supplies anyway, is clearly positive.
Overnight seemed to follow yesterday's trade but the day session had a different thought in mind, which looked to be Friday profit taking. Through the middle of the day, beans pulled back again as they did overnight, which limited some gains seen from early session profit taking in corn. A difference from today compared to previous sessions this week was that the morning trade of highest volume was buying and when that eased the corn slowly drifted back down. This was likely the Friday profit taking that high volume traders had sold throughout the week.
The market has been active in weighing the impact of dry weather in several major exporting zones worldwide against U.S. harvest progress.
Allendale still reserves the potential for a few weeks ahead to still topple the current supply peak.
Allendale’s current up-front supply estimates show beef production in May at 6% over last year, June at 7% over last year.
Monday’s U.S. planting pace will also be watched closely to see if it falls further behind the five-year average.
The Stats Canada numbers fueled a soybean rally today.
As it stands right now, hog numbers are coming in just about right on schedule.
On the price end, we expect futures to slowly recover some of its lost value as it approaches the supply bulge in the weeks ahead.
While Monday’s planting progress might be a bit behind pace, the forecast currently suggests there is no reason to expect it to fall to a highly concerning level.