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Rich Nelson: Demand market

Wheat rallied on strong exports and on the coat tails of the corn market which traded limit up at one time today.

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Rich Nelson: USDA Report watch

The wheat market seems to have fundamental support. The wheat sold off today on index rebalancing and profit taking. The profit taking seems to be coming after the winter holidays instead of the end of the year profit taking that was expected. The March Chicago dropped 1.9% today. It is estimated that the funds sold 8,000 contracts today with 4,000 of these contracts being attributed to index rebalancing. For the week, March Wheat was down 22 1/4. This was the first weekly decline since the week ended Dec 12, 2010. 

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Rich Nelson: Corn to get boost

Going into the end of the year there should be no surprise to see it end the way we have seen it trade for the entire second half, bullish. Market mentality is that funds will move back into the corn, buying it aggressively to start the New Year. It may be more accurate to look at this market year on year to start and end on the Jan report rather than years end. It appears we have come full circle. 

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Watch out for China -- Rich Nelson

It is generally thought that the December report does not make much of a wave in the markets. For once, things turned out as expected. 

USDA raised corn carryout slightly to 832 million bushels. This is 5 million bushels more than the number they put out in November. Of all places, this increase to carryout came from raising corn imports 5 million bushels. That takes a very small number on the balance sheet and increases it slightly. Imports were 10 million in the last report and are now 15. 

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Rich Nelson: Little USDA changes seen

Fundamental Support: Corn this week rose 20 1/2 cents. Big support came from the rocketing wheat market, further talk that China needs to import corn next year, and partially from Argentine corn concerns. Looking ahead to next week, we do not look for a major change to USDA’s balance sheet. They traditionally wait until January to adjust production numbers. That leaves us arguing about ethanol and exports. We will release our numbers on Monday.

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