Soybean crush levels came in higher than expected in March and maintain a steady pace thus far in 2019.
The current price relationship between harvest price corn and soybeans does not provide an incentive to plant more corn.
Over the last four marketing years, corn export totals from April through August averaged 1.08 billion bushels.
Weaker use levels, particularly in exports and ethanol use, generate an expectation of lower consumption than last year’s 3.683 billion bushels during the second quarter of the marketing year.
While the impact of lower CRP acreage looks to be minimal, spring weather conditions appear set to have a significant influence on the acreage of spring-planted crops.
A continuation of strong crush numbers through the remainder of the marketing year may come down to increased competition in the export market from Argentina.
This analysis looks at the current acreage priced into the market and possible implications for corn prices moving forward.
The USDA finally released a set of highly anticipated reports on Friday. Despite lower ending stock forecasts, the results disappointed and produced a somewhat bearish outlook.
If the USDA releases the reports as scheduled on January 11, they hold implications for forming expectations on corn and soybean prices in 2019.
Uncertainty remains regarding the number of soybeans China may buy from the U.S. in the near term.