By factoring in late planting, a conservative yield estimate for corn near 170 bushels per acre, 4.5 bushels below the current USDA projection, appears reasonable.
Reduced acreage and lost yield potential for the 2019 corn crop look to drive prices higher as the wet weather continues to cover much of the Corn Belt.
The potential for an acreage switch is present. The incentive may be lacking.
Lower gasoline prices leading to higher domestic gasoline consumption may provide support for increased corn usage for ethanol production this summer.
Soybean crush levels came in higher than expected in March and maintain a steady pace thus far in 2019.
The current price relationship between harvest price corn and soybeans does not provide an incentive to plant more corn.
Over the last four marketing years, corn export totals from April through August averaged 1.08 billion bushels.
Weaker use levels, particularly in exports and ethanol use, generate an expectation of lower consumption than last year’s 3.683 billion bushels during the second quarter of the marketing year.
While the impact of lower CRP acreage looks to be minimal, spring weather conditions appear set to have a significant influence on the acreage of spring-planted crops.
A continuation of strong crush numbers through the remainder of the marketing year may come down to increased competition in the export market from Argentina.