The recent strength in ethanol production has led to speculation about changes to USDA’s estimate of corn used for ethanol in the pending WASDE report.
Considerable speculation will occur over the next few months about the acreage decisions farmers will make in 2018.
Soybean export inspections currently trail last year’s pace by approximately 12%.
The U.S. corn production forecast was increased to 14.6 billion bushels, up almost 300 million bushels over the October forecast.
A price rally for corn in the short run may come from the supply side.
Rather than project the planted acreage of soybeans, it could be informative to think about the number of soybean acres necessary in 2018.
The release of USDA's October reports created a rally in soybean prices that pushed November soybean futures prices to levels not seen since the end of July.
A weather outlook for Brazil indicates continued dryness, which may delay planting even longer and have implications for second-crop corn planting in the region.
Despite large production, U.S. soybean prices may have long-term support due to increasing demand and usage.
The August Crop Production report surprised many market observers by forecasting 2017 corn production at 14.153 billion bushels.