Hot and dry southern Brazil slashes soybean outlook

Dryness concerns continue across southern Brazil and into Argentina while central and northern Brazil have ample moisture.

Last week, the recent dry conditions forced agribusiness consultancy AgRural to reduce Brazil soybean crop estimates, which were at one time projected to be a record crop.

Going forward to the second full week of January 2022 (week ending January 15), dryness is expected across much of Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil. Adding insult to injury will be hot conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina.

According to  WeatherTrends360, the week ending January 15, 2022, will be one of the hottest and driest second weeks of January in more than 30 years for Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil and the provinces of Cordoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, and Entre Rios in Argentina.

Dry conditions have the obvious detrimental effect of reduced soil moisture while hot weather exacerbates these conditions by drying soils out quickly.

A little farther north in the Brazilian state of Parana, where recent dryness has taken a toll on crops, conditions won’t be as severe as areas farther south. This is forecast to be the eighth coolest second week of January in 30-plus years with precipitation trending closer to normal for the state overall. However, the latter part of the week looks to bring hotter and drier weather back to the state.

Central and northern Brazil continue to see ample moisture, perhaps a little too much as recent wet weather has led to flooding over the past several weeks, especially in northeast Brazil. Temperatures will also trend quite different from their southern Brazil counterparts with much of central and northern Brazil trending cooler than normal. The week-ending January 15 is forecast to be the second coolest and seventh wettest since 1992 or earlier for main soybean-producer state Mato Grosso, according to data from  WeatherTrends360. 

Looking ahead to the third full week of January, week-ending January 22, 2022, there is some hope that southern Brazil and Argentina could receive some much-needed moisture. Although, this increased moisture may make only a temporary appearance in the drought-stricken region.

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