Understanding USDA reports
I have studied USDA reports for the last two decades and even went through the USDA Crop Report Lock Up process to watch how the USDA reports are put together in 2008. I respect the work the USDA does and admire their long-term track record. They are not right all the time, but they are right most of the time. They are the gold standard the grain industry uses.
Why are these reports so important?
It doesn’t matter if you are a farmer who grows corn or a feed mill in Europe that mixes feed, you need to know how much corn is being produced in the world, how much is being used, and how much will be left over each year. The basic law of supply and demand works. When global grain supplies are increasing, as they did year after year from 2012 to 2016, grain prices went lower. After four years of sideways markets, grain inventories began moving lower and prices have been trending higher. In the last few weeks, the war in Ukraine has changed the global grain fundamentals and prices have gone sharply higher. The situation in Ukraine is tragic, and I will write about that in the near future.
Key USDA Reports in March
This month we have two major USDA Reports. First, the monthly USDA Supply/Demand report on Wednesday, March 9. This year it will be interesting to see if the USDA increases projected corn and wheat exports and how much the USDA changes the projected corn and soybean crops in South America. Usually the March report is a routine report, but not this year.
The other key reports are released on Thursday, March 31. That day the USDA releases its quarterly Grain Stocks Report and the Prospective Planting Report. These are two very important reports and will likely create some wide market swings.
Planting Intentions 2022 Survey
Prior to the release of the Prospective Planting Report on March 31, Kluis Commodity Advisors and Successful Farming are teaming up to conduct their own acreage survey. You can complete the survey by clicking on Kluis Commodity Advisors and Successful Farming Planting Intentions Survey. You have until March 15 to complete the survey.
Once the survey is closed, Kluis Commodity Advisors will assemble the data and send participants the results as well as any potential trade recommendations we suggest before the release of the reports on March 31.
Thank you for your participation!
About the author: Al Kluis has been trading grain futures since 1974. Sign up for a free trial to his daily morning email and weekly “Kluis Report” by visiting kluiscommodities.com.