Corn closes higher

Soybeans futures ended lower

DES MOINES, Iowa -- At the close of CME Group trading Friday, corn settled higher and soybeans shifted into small losses.

At the close, September corn futures finished 2½¢ higher at $3.27. Dec. corn futures ended 1¼¢ higher at $3.40½.
 
Nov. soybean futures settled ½¢ lower at $9.04¾. January soybean futures ended ½¢ lower at $9.11¼.

Sep. wheat futures closed 7¾¢ higher at $5.27¼. 

Dec. soymeal futures settled $3.10 per short ton lower at $297.50. Dec. soy oil futures ended 0.15¢ higher at 31.67¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.65 per barrel lower at $42.17. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 183 points higher.

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- At midsession Friday, corn futures are higher while new-crop soybeans are unchanged to fractionally higher.

In late-morning trading, the September corn futures are 2¢ higher at $3.26½. Dec. corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.40¼.
 
Nov. soybean futures are unchanged at $9.05¼. January soybean futures are ¼¢ higher at $9.12.

Sep. wheat futures are 1½¢ lower at $5.27. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $0.30 per short ton higher at $30.90. Dec. soy oil futures are 0.02¢ lower at 31.50¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.88 per barrel lower at $41.94. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 74 points higher.

Jack Scoville of PRICE Futures Group sees potential supply weighing on futures today.

“The overnight sales were positive, especially for corn, which is a little higher today.  [Old crop] beans are just a touch lower. The export demand goes against the Pro Farmer crop tour that found better-than-expected yields in Iowa for corn and little damage to soybeans even with the drought and derecho. It’s pretty amazing, really. It’s still looking like ample supplies of both coming as long as we get another rain or two.”

Matt Tranel of  the Commodity Risk Management Group also sees supply moderating the demand boost from export sales.

“Markets are mixed but of little change just yet,” he says. “Soybeans earlier this week made a run at technical resistance of $9.20/bu. Since then, farmers have sold and traders have taken profit. Now we find ourselves resting just above $9/bu support to close out the week. An additional 768,000 metric tons of soybeans were reported this morning.  Corn also saw a 405,000 metric ton sale to China for 2020/2021, but the Pro Farmer Tour has reported some strong numbers this week, so the market is weighing them as well.”

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DES MOINES, Iowa – In early trading Friday, corn and soybean futures are higher while wheat prices are lower.

In early trading, the September corn futures are 2¼¢ higher at $3.26¾. Dec. corn futures are 1½¢ higher at $3.40¾.
 
Nov. soybean futures are 1½¢ higher at $9.06¾. January soybean futures are 1¾¢ higher at $9.13½.

Sep. wheat futures are 1¾¢ lower at $5.26¾. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.60 per short ton higher at $302.20. Dec. soy oil futures are 0.07¢ lower at 31.45¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.86 per barrel lower at $41.96. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 8 points higher.

Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors says the weakness in soybean futures Thursday “could be tied to the small adjustment of export sales from old crop to new crop. Some may have considered this a cancellation, when it was actually a rollover. This typically means the sale was moved from old crop to new crop. Traders are fearful we will see a major cancellation from China, since the two countries continue to fire shots back and forth at each other.”

He’s also following the supply side of the corn market.

“Tis the season for crop tours and subsequent production estimates,” he says. “Traders will focus highly on the major ‘I’ states (Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana). Any major production changes to these states, and we could see the market move accordingly.”

Also on Friday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

  • Export sales of 405,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year. 
  • Export sales of 400,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 368,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began Sept. 1.

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On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets close mostly lower.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished ½¢ lower at $3.24. Dec. corn futures closed ½¢ lower at $3.39½.
 
Nov. soybean futures settled 8¾¢ lower at $9.05½. January soybean futures finished 8¼¢ lower at $9.11.

Sep. wheat futures closed 7½¢ higher at $5.19½. 

Dec. soymeal futures ended $1.90 per short ton lower at $293.80. Dec. soy oil futures closed 0.45¢ lower at 31.52¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.44 per barrel lower at $42.49. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 31 points higher.

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows strong demand figures.

  • Corn = 784,900 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000 and 1.30 mmt. 
  • Soybeans = 2.58 million metric tons. vs. trade’s expectations of 2.3 mmt to 3.9 mmt. 
  • Wheat = 523,000 mt. 
  • Soybean meal = 190,300 mt.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are looking for bullish news every day.

“Soybean bulls need to see a strong weekly export sales report this morning to maintain momentum. Once the bears sense any stumble in the rally, they will act quickly to test downside support,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.  

He added, “The rally in corn and soybean futures that was ignited eight days ago seems to be running out of gas. This time of year, constant bullish news is crucial for sustaining a rally. Watch for a break below the prior two-day low on the daily charts. If this happens and prices start slipping further as the day goes on, then it is likely momentum traders are jumping on the short side.”

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets trade mostly higher.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 2¢ lower at $3.25. Dec. corn futures ended 2¢ lower at $3.39½.
 
Nov. soybean futures settled ¼¢ higher at $9.14½. January soybean futures closed ¼¢ higher at $9.20.

Sep. wheat futures finished 4½¢ higher at $5.12. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $0.50 per short ton lower at $302.50. Dec. soy oil futures settled 0.09¢ higher at 31.67¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.11 per barrel lower at $42.78. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 4 points lower.

On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 192,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.  

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that investors shy away from markets as bearish news takes control. 

“Grains are mixed today, with soybeans finding early support from continued strong exports and dry weather during the critical pod-filling time frame. Corn is unable to trade positive, as strong yields continue to be reported from crop tours not in wind damaged areas,” Roose says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are moving past the damaged Iowa corn crop.

“All the hype from the damaged crop in Iowa is old news already. This time of year is when the bullish stories need to be often and consistent. New-crop soybeans are trying to hold on to the highest price since early March. However, the bulls will need to see higher highs soon to keep the momentum rolling in their favor. If we see the bulls waver, the bears will jump in right away,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.  

He added, “The corn and soybean charts are quickly approaching support on the charts. The export sales announcement on Tuesday morning did very little to help move prices higher, nor did continued estimates of the damaged corn and soybean crops in Iowa. Support needs to hold, or the bears will push for new downside targets.”

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets trade lower.

At midsession, the Sept. corn futures are 3¾¢ lower at $3.27½. Dec. corn futures are 2¾¢ lower at $3.42.
 
Sept. soybean futures are 1¾¢ higher at $9.10½. November soybean futures are 2½¢ lower at $9.12½.

Sep. wheat futures are 10¼¢ lower at $5.06¼. 

Sep. soymeal futures are $1.50 per short ton lower at $296.80. Sept. soy oil futures are 0.19¢ higher at 31.49¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.24 per barrel lower at $42.65. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 27 points lower.

On Monday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 130,000 metric tons of hard red winter wheat for delivery to an unknown destination during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for wheat began June. 1.

On Tuesday, private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

  • Export sales of 195,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 130,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 130,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that crop condition ratings could begin to fall. 

“The USDA Crop Progress report showed corn and soybean rating both down 2%,” Kluis told customers in a daily note. “The current corn crop ratings that show corn rated 69% good to excellent this week will continue to decline if the current weather forecasts (for two weeks of dry weather) are correct. For soybeans, the USDA crop conditions showed ratings down 2% to 72% good to excellent. Conditions in August determine the size of the soybean crop. Based on the USDA report and the dry forecasts for the next two weeks, U.S. yield potential is moving lower.” 

He added, “I am watching the drought monitor that will be updated Thursday. This index will likely show more areas getting into much-below-normal moisture conditions. Those dark brown and red areas continue to increase.”

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

As traders anticipate crop ratings dropping, the CME Group’s farm markets rise Monday.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 6½¢ higher at $3.31½. Dec. corn futures closed 6¾¢ higher at $3.44¼.
 
Sept. soybean futures finished 15½¢ higher at $9.12½. November soybean futures closed 16¾¢ higher at $9.15½.

Sep. wheat futures closed 16½¢ higher at $5.16¼. 

Sep. soymeal futures closed $6.50 per short ton higher at $298.30. Sept. soy oil futures settled 0.24¢ higher at 31.30¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.85 per barrel higher at $42.86. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 86 points lower.

On Monday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 130,000 metric tons of hard red winter wheat for delivery to unknown destination during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for wheat began June. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that crop condition ratings could begin to fall. 

“After last week’s storm in Iowa, many private trade estimates are now starting to move lower,” Kluis told customers in a daily note. “The USDA Crop Progress report today will show corn conditions steady to 2% lower and soybeans steady to 1% lower than last week. The hit in the Iowa crop ratings will be enough to take the entire national ratings lower.” 

He added, “Watch the extended weather forecasts. The weather outlook is now for seasonal temperatures and dry conditions for the next two weeks. Based on this forecast and the recent severe storm damage (not just in Iowa but across much of the Corn Belt), last week’s USDA yield forecasts may be the highest we have this year.”

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