A Profit-Taking Friday Boosted Prices, Analyst Says
Being a Friday ahead of a three-day weekend, the odds were higher at finding a profit-taking Friday.
And that seems to be what was found today. There were some solid buying minutes, which implies that some of the buying was even being done by funds today.
Given that it is the end of the month, it is quite possible to go along with regular traders who typically take profits on a Friday.
News was on the short side today, with the main Canadian negotiator. In fact, early comments made sounded more in the way that a trade deal would be tough to accomplish today, although something may be seen later tonight well after the writing of this commentary.
Beans offered spill-over support for a chance with Statistics Canada showing a lower production number this morning. While that was mainly expected, it still helped to aid the corn bounce seen today.
Corn traders should watch for any Russian headlines on Monday to see if wheat will continue to offer spill over influence (either bullish or bearish), when trade resumes Monday night.
Even though this profit-taking day looks positive, we still want to see Tuesday back up this move to have true confidence in this bounce.
Short term, we will see if we have a trade deal reached with Canada when we return on Tuesday, while also watching wheat for spill-over influence. Longer term, we can say the next issue will be harvest reports from the field and if they suggest higher or lower yields compared with the USDA.
• Bulls will want to see Tuesday’s day session continue this bounce, so it doesn’t look to be strictly Friday profit-taking buying.
• A trade deal with Canada would be seen as supportive if it can be done by tonight.
• Any Russian headlines toward limiting exports on Monday would offer spill-over support from wheat.
• Today’s bounce is large enough to attract new sellers again Monday night if corn lacks continued supportive news.
• Bears will be looking for private analysts to raise their yield thoughts, potentially above the USDA 178.4.
• If today’s light fund buying was only to finish out the month, most of those contracts could be sold again on Tuesday.