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Wheat Closes 13¢ Lower
DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s farm markets remain lower.
At the close, the July corn futures finished 5½¢ lower at $3.85. December futures finished 5½¢ lower at $4.02¼.
July soybean futures settled 8¾¢ lower at $10.40¼. November soybean futures settled 7½¢ lower at $10.35.
July wheat futures ended 13½¢ lower at $4.77¼.
July soy meal futures are $0.80 per short ton higher at $378.60. July soy oil futures settled 0.12¢ lower at 31.56¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.03 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 219 points lower.
Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that the markets are reacting to better weather and weaker demand.
“The weather here in the great Midwest should finally turn warmer next week, in time for timely planting of both corn and soybeans. Plus, some precip is in the forecast this weekend for the Great Plains,” Scoville says.
“So, things seem to be getting better in the nick of time for corn and beans, and the situation out West could be more stable in HRW areas. Nothing new going on in South America, things seem to be bumping along, but basis has come down there and hurt nearby demand ideas for corn and beans,” Scoville says.
Thursday’s Grain Market Review
On Thursday, the CME Group’s grain markets ignored the weekly export sales, finishing mostly lower.
At the close, the July corn futures finished ¾¢ lower at $3.91; December futures ended ½¢ lower at $4.08.
July soybean futures closed 4¼¢ lower at $10.49; November soybean futures finished 3¼¢ lower at $10.42½.
July wheat futures settled 1¾¢ higher at $4.90¾.
July soy meal futures closed $3.40 per short ton lower at $377.80. July soy oil futures finished 0.01¢ lower at 31.68¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 31¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 135 points lower.
Cory Bratland, Kluis Commodities chief grain strategist, says it is disappointing that soybeans cannot rally on another solid week of weekly export sales.
“First off, the market is pricing in more soybeans acres for the U.S. this spring and summer. Weather is a driver here, and with the recent snow, wet conditions, and cold ground temps, the soybean market feels vulnerable,” Bratland says.
The bear spreads are and have been working on soybeans, Bratland says. “So, until they quit working and the bull spreads start working, I feel soybeans could pull back even more. We are also running out of new or fresh news to trade on the bullish side for soybeans.”
Corn is holding up rather well, he says.
“88 million planted acres slated for the U.S. and a world carryover that continues to get smaller with each report should hold corn supported,” Bratland says.
Wheat market continues to be a wet blanket on the corn market, however, he says.
“We still need to work on the huge world ending stocks of wheat. Much needed moisture is headed to the very dry southern Plains to provide some relief for the winter wheat crop over the next six to 10 days. Also, North Dakota basically missed the snow. We might see some spring wheat seeded this week up in North Dakota,” Bratland says.
On Thursday, the USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report. Soybean and corn sales, last week, were slightly higher than expectations, wheat sales were within expectations.
- Wheat: 307,300 metric tons (mt) vs. the trade’s expectations of between 150,000 and 550,000 mt
- Corn: 1.203 million mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 700,000 and 1,200,000 mt
- Soybeans: 2.13 million mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 1,400,000 and 2,100,000 mt
- Soybean meal: 171,700 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 125,000 and 400,000 mt
Wednesday’s Grain Market Review
On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm futures markets finished mostly higher, as investors eye troubling planting weather.
At the close, the July corn futures finished 2½¢ higher at $3.91¾; December futures finished 2½¢ higher at $4.08¼.
July soybean futures closed 4¢ lower at $10.53¼; November soybean futures ended ½¢ higher at $10.45¾.
July wheat futures closed 7¾¢ higher at $4.89¼.
July soy meal futures settled $4.20 per short ton lower at $381.20. July soy oil futures closed 0.24¢ higher at 31.69¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.09 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points lower.
Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says it’s a weather-driven market.
“Weather is dominating the trade today, as the slow start to planting may indicate an increase in soybean acres vs. corn or spring wheat,” Roose says.
He adds, “The strong soybean demand the market has seen the past few months may be at its peak, as Brazil soybean prices become more competitive. Brazil’s harvest is coming to its final stage of a record production number.”
Tuesday’s Grain Market Review
On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets lacked new trading news, finish mixed.
At the close, the May corn futures finished 2¼¢ lower at $3.80; July futures finished 1¾¢ lower at $3.89.
May soybean futures finished 4¢ higher at $10.46; July soybean futures ended 4¢ higher at $10.57.
May wheat futures settled 4¢ higher at $4.66¼.
May soy meal futures finished $3.30 per short ton higher at $381.10. January soy oil futures ended 0.01¢ higher at 31.19¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 27¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 215 points higher.
The USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report showed spring wheat planting at 3% complete vs. 15% on the five-year average and 12% last year. For corn, 3% is planted vs. the five-year average at 5% and 6% last year.
Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says it has been a very quiet day and there has not been a lot of news to push prices one way or another.
“Even the forecasts for rains in the western Great Plains, this weekend, seem dialed in. The demand news has gone away as the Brazil-US prices are more inline,” Scoville says.
China seems to be buying in other places and not here, so that is bad for beans, Scoville says.
“Soybean meal prices appear pretty close together these days, too, so South America is selling. No new corn news,” Scoville says.
Scoville adds, “Weather is gaining in importance here for the beans and corn, but everyone expects the bulk of the crops to get planted one way or another in the next month with minimal yield loss, if any.”
Monday’s Grain Market Review
On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets start weaker.
At the close the May corn futures finished 3¾¢ lower at $3.82¼; July futures finished 3½¢ lower at $3.91.
May soybean futures finished 12¼¢ lower at $10.42; July soybean futures settled 11¾¢ lower at $10.53¼.
May wheat futures finished 10¼¢ lower at $4.62¼.
May soy meal futures ended $5 per short ton lower at $377.80. January soy oil futures closed 0.30¢ lower at 31.18¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.15 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 257 points higher.
Mike North, president of Commodity Risk Management Group, says lower wheat values appeared Monday on forecasts for growing precipitation in the Southern Plains.
“Further weather, elsewhere, will allow planting to move back towards ‘normal’ in the coming week, giving ease to traders concerned about planting delays. Lower exports in soybeans and corn also did not help the cause for higher prices. In the end, bears win on Monday’s trade,” North says.