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Charts turn more positive; cash and beef may stabilize, analyst says

The live cattle market positions itself for further gains.

The turn up from a key support level in August Cattle, yesterday, has turned the charts a bit more bullish, and the market is probing for short-term low.

Beef prices seem to be cheap enough now to attract better demand, restaurants are reopening, order flow may be increasing, and live cattle prices just under $100 may be seen as cheap.

The potential bearish news would be if that China puts up major trade barriers for poultry, pork and beef exporters, as this would leave too much meat for U.S. consumers to absorb. However, China seems to have the need for increasing its pork, poultry and beef imports, so the compliance issues may be short-lived. 

The USDA estimated cattle slaughter came in at 120,000 head, yesterday. This brings the total for the week, so far, to 239,000 head, up from 238,000 last week at this time but down from 244,000 a year ago.

The USDA boxed beef cutout was down $1.75 at mid-session, yesterday, and closed $2.25 lower at $211.81. This was down from $227.89 the previous week and $219.74 a year ago. This is the lowest the cutout has been since March 13.

Cash live cattle traded in light volume (437 head) at $97 on Tuesday, down from $100 last week and in line with the trends on Friday and Monday. 

Market Ideas

The technical action in live cattle is positive, and the market seems to be in a position for further gains. August Live Cattle support comes in at 95.57, with 98.72 and 101.02 as near term resistance. October Cattle support is at 98.97, with 101.75 as the next resistance level.


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