Soybean futures close moderately higher

Corn and wheat futures post small gains.

DES MOINES, Iowa – At the close of CME Group trading Friday, soybean futures were moderately higher while corn and wheat posted small gains.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures ended ¾¢ higher at $4.23¼. March corn futures settled 1¢ higher at $4.28¼.

January soybean futures finished 3½¢ higher at $11.81¢. March soybean futures closed 5¾¢ higher at $11.81¼.

Dec. wheat futures ended 1½¢ higher at $5.93¼. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $1.00 per short ton higher at $394.70.

Dec. soy oil futures ended 0.25¢ lower at 38.66¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.42 per barrel higher (+1.o1%) at $42.16. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 138 points lower (-0.47%) at 29,344 points.

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DES MOINES, Iowa – At midsession Friday, volatile soybean prices have dropped from early morning trades but recovered from small losses later in the morning. Corn and wheat are both higher.

As morning ended, the Dec. corn futures are 1¾¢ higher at $4.24¼. March corn futures are 2½¢ higher at $4.29¾.

January soybean futures are 6¼¢ higher at $11.83¾. March soybean futures are 7¾¢ higher at $11.83¼.

Dec. wheat futures are 4½¢ higher at $5.96¼. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $0.50 per short ton higher at $394.20.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.23¢ lower at 38.58¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.22 per barrel l0wer (-0.53%) at $41.52. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 87 points lower (-0.29%) at 29,396 points.

“Soybeans continue their pursuit of $12 and corn gets to go along for the ridek,” says Britt O’Connell of ever.ag. “With the funds carrying significant longs in both markets, fundamentals have taken a bit of a back seat in corn. We would expect the soybean market to hold risk premium until more is known about the South American soybean crop.”

When it comes to the South American crops, both corn and soybeans, “it’s weather, weather, and more weather,” says Don Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines.

With drier weather in central and northern Brazil, “we were adding risk premium for weather concerns,” Roose says.

That could change if there are favorable forecasts over the weekend, he adds.

“We’re probably as good as the next weather forecast down there,” he says.

Corn is following soybeans up but is also benefiting from rumors of Chinese purchases, he says.

John Walsh of Walsh Trading says demand within the soy complex may be shifting.

“The meal has been the price leader for some time. This may be changing. The veg oil market in general has been on fire. This is driven by the palm oil stocks at multiyear lows. The oil share has risen from 30% to approximately 33%,” he says. 

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DES MOINES, Iowa – In early trading Friday, grain futures are higher with soybeans up sharply.

Shortly after the open, the Dec. corn futures are 4¢ higher at $4.26½. March corn futures are 5¢ higher at $4.32¼.

January soybean futures are 16¢ higher at $11.93½¢. March soybean futures are 16½¢ higher at $11.92.

Dec. wheat futures are 4¾¢ higher at $5.96½. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $5.20 per short ton higher at $398.90.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.07¢ higher at 38.88¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.22 per barrel l0wer (-0.53%) at $41.52. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 50 points lower (-0.17%) at 29,432 points.

Bob Linneman of Kluis Commodity Advisors notes that “Soybeans found willing buyers after a weaker start to trading on Thursday. January soybean futures traded in a 20¢ range before ending the day in the green.”

"One question has been circling more and more this week: Are we rationing soybeans at current prices?” he says. ”If we consider that it is November and we have an estimated 190-million-bushel carryout, then it is easier to say, ‘No, we are not rationing at these prices.’ Remember that this rally has been based on incredible demand. We do not have a great reference point for how this type of scenario plays out.”

“The July vs. November soybean spread made new highs overnight,” he adds. “We will continue to discuss this spread. It could be one of the better indicators of how tight the commercial traders feel the stocks-to-use ratio could get in the U.S.”

Also on Friday, Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

• Export sales of 158,270 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

• Export sales of 131,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

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DES MOINES, Iowa – At the close of CME Group trading Thursday, corn futures have recovered from the open with beans almost in the black. Wheat is lower.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures ended 3¼¢ lower at $4.22½. March corn futures settled 3¼¢ lower at $4.27¼.

January soybean futures finished 1¾¢ higher at $11.77½¢. March soybean futures closed ¾¢ higher at $11.75½.

Dec. wheat futures ended 6¢ lower at $5.91¾. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $1.20 per short ton lower at $393.70.

Dec. soy oil futures ended 0.35¢ higher at 38.81¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.17 per barrel l0wer (-0.41%) at $41.65. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points lower (-0.14%) at 29,398 points.

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DES MOINES, Iowa – At mid-session Thursday, corn futures have recovered from the open with beans almost in the black. Wheat is lower.

In late morning, the Dec. corn futures are 2¾¢ lower at $4.23. March corn futures are 2½¢ lower at $4.28.

January soybean futures are 1½¢ lower at $11.74¼. March soybean futures are 1¾¢ lower at $11.73.

Dec. wheat futures are 5¼¢ lower at $5.92½. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.60 per short ton lower at $393.30.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.11¢ higher at 38.57¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.37 per barrel l0wer (-0.88%) at $41.45. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 108 points lower (-0.37%) at 29,330 points.

Analysts don’t see a major turnaround from the grain futures trend yet.

“No new sales announcements to China in the daily system brings fears of less demand amid higher prices,” says Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group.  [This morning’s USDA report is for last week’s export sales.] “Plus, the Coronavirus has made a return and has hit demand ideas for biofuels at minimum.  Some profit taking is noted but this should be short term and the rally should keep going longer term.”

Adds Matt Tranel of ever.ag, “The pause today in this week's rally has to do with profit taking as managed money is very long the grain complex.  Bulls are in search of additional news to justify trading against and through multi-year highs of $12/bu. soybeans. Dry weather in South America remains supportive but until another Chinese purchase hits or a friendly weather forecast is released, the funds seem content with offsetting positions as $12 remains substantial resistance.”

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DES MOINES, Iowa – In early trading Thursday, soybean and corn futures are taking a pause from this week’s rally.

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 4¢ lower at $4.21¾. March corn futures are 3¼¢ lower at $4.27¼.

January soybean futures are 6¾¢ lower at $11.69. March soybean futures are 7½¢ lower at $11.67¼.

Dec. wheat futures are ¼¢ lower at $5.97½. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $2.80 per short ton lower at $392.10.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.14¢ lower at 38.32¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.26 per barrel l0wer (-0.62%) at $41.56. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 119 points lower (-0.40%) at 29,319 points.

Bob Linneman of Kluis Commodity Advisors will be watching corn options trading.

“Soybean futures led the rally on Wednesday as futures hit new contract highs,” he says. “January soybeans traded just shy of $11.90 but were unable to hold the gains and settled near $11.75. Corn futures also pushed to new highs as the December contract hit new contract highs. As mentioned yesterday, continue to watch the corn options as the heavily traded December corn options expire on Friday. As of this morning, there are just over 20,000 $4.30 calls that warrant attention.” 

“Basis levels appear to be tightening once again across many areas of the Midwest,” he adds. “End users are trying to secure bushels before the end of the year and get a handle on how many bushels are still in the farmers' bins.”

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows corn exports in the middle of trade guesses and soybean exports ahead of pre-report estimates.

  • Corn = 1,088,600 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between corn is 600,000 metric tons (mt) to 1,2 million metric tons (mmt) . Mexico was the top buyer, followed by Japan and China.
  • Soybeans = 1.388 million metric tons. vs. trade’s expectations of 600,000 to 1,200,000. Of that total, China bought 1.060 mmt.
  • Wheat = 192,400 mt. 
  • Soybean meal = 182,100 mt.

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DES MOINES, Iowa – At the close of CME Group trading Wednesday, corn, wheat and soybean futures pulled back from mid-session levels but still finished up for the day.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures ended 5½¢ higher at $4.25¾. March corn futures finished 3¾¢ higher at $4.30½.

January soybean futures closed 6¢ higher at $11.75¾. March soybean futures finished 6¼¢ higher at $11.74¾.

Dec. wheat futures ended 2½¢ higher at $5.97¾. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $0.90 per short ton lower at $394.90.

Dec. soy oil futures ended 0.96¢ higher at 38.46¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.62 per barrel higher (+1.50%) at $42.05. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 78 points lower (-0.26%) at 29,704 points.

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DES MOINES, Iowa – At mid-session Wednesday, soybean futures are up slightly from early morning levels and corn prices are making stronger gains after two days of reported exports.

In late morning, the Dec. corn futures are 7½¢ higher at $4.27¾. March corn futures are 5¾¢ higher at $4.32½. 

January soybean futures are 13½¢ higher at $11.83¼. March soybean futures are 13¾¢ higher at $11.82¼.

Dec. wheat futures are 5¢ higher at $6.00¼. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.10 per short ton higher at $396.90.

Dec. soy oil futures are 1.14¢ higher at 38.64¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.65 per barrel higher (+1.57%) at $42.08. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 61 points higher (+0.20%) at 29,844 points.

A lot of factors are driving the soybean futures rally, says Bryan Doherty, senior market advisor with Total Farm Marketing, but two stand out.

“You have two key focal points. One is the weather. Two, you have rumors that China will buy more soybeans,” Doherty says.

Despite some weekend rains, dry weather remains a concern in South America.

These factors come on top of the USDA’s recemt November WASDE report which showed surprisingly low yields and a tight carryover.

The global soybean supply is tight, too, with Brazil having to import soybeans and China buying aggressively. Add to those factors, short covering and lack of farmer selling.

“All of these variable are clicking on any given day,” Doherty says.

By some estimates, U.S. farmers have already sold about 70% of their new crop soybeans.

“In talking to my producers, I would say that’s pretty accurate,” Doherty says.

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DES MOINES, Iowa – In early trading Wednesday, all grain futures are continuing this week’s bullish run higher.

Shortly after the open, the Dec. corn futures are 3¾¢ higher at $4.24. March corn futures are 2½¢ higher at $4.29¼. 

January soybean futures are 13¼¢ higher at $11.83. March soybean futures are 12¾¢ higher at $11.81¼.

Dec. wheat futures are 5¼¢ higher at $6.00½. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $3.20 per short ton higher at $399.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.64¢ higher at 38.14¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.51 per barrel higher (+1.23%) at $41.94. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 49 points higher (+0.16%) at 29,832 points.

Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors says in his pre-opening report that he’s watching the funds and South American weather.

“The funds were net sellers in corn of just shy of 10,000 contracts,” he says. “The trade was expecting the funds to have added over 20,000 contracts. Although it is difficult to estimate the daily estimates of what the funds are doing, traders will want to see new highs soon. Otherwise the funds may further reduce their long position before Thanksgiving.”

South American planting has caught up to the average for this time of year,” Kluis adds. “However, the rainfall deficit for many areas is continuing to widen. Although this does not mean a crop disaster is about to unfold, it does bring a sense of concern to the world balance sheet if production falls short of current estimates.”

Jim Bower of Bower Trading, Inc., urges vigilance.

 “Soybeans are trading at or near $12.00 per bushel (in some cases more) in the local cash markets and U.S. farmers are celebrating the rally. Be prepared for much more volatility in the days/weeks ahead and now is the time to tune-up sell and defend market strategies from here close into 2022,” he says in his morning report.

“Remember the grain markets trade and price themselves differently now, as you must learn how to be ahead of the analytics and algorithmic (computer generated) markets. In other words – be ahead of the funds,” he says.

Also on Wednesday, the Foreign Agriculture Service said that private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 140,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

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DES MOINES, Iowa – At the close of CME Group trading Tuesday, corn and soybean futures finished higher.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures ended 4¢ higher at $4.20¼. March corn futures finished 1¾¢ higher at $4.26. 

January soybean futures closed 16¼¢ higher at $11.69¾. March soybean futures finished 14¢ higher at $11.68½.

Dec. wheat futures ended 2¾¢ lower at $5.95¼. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $6.50 per short ton higher at $395.80.

Dec. soy oil futures ended 0.07¢ higher at 37.50¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.22 per barrel lower (-0.53%) at $41.12. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 88 points lower (-0.30%) 29,861 points.

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DES MOINES, Iowa – At mid-session Tuesday, soybean futures are strengthening while wheat prices have pulled back slightly.

In late morning, the Dec. corn futures are 4¾¢ higher at $4.21. March corn futures are 3¼¢ higher at $4.27½. 

January soybean futures are 21¼¢ higher at $11.74¾. March soybean futures are 19¢ higher at $11.73½.

Dec. wheat futures are 1½¢ lower at $5.96½. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $7.70 per short ton higher at $397.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.10¢ higher at 37.53¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $.30 per barrel lower (-0.73%) at $41.04. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 139 points lower (-0.47%) 29,811 points.

Soybeans are posting big gains today although prices are only slightly higher than in early trading.

“Soybean contracts broke through 2020 highs on Tuesday as record soybean crush was once again witnessed in October,” says Matt Tranel of ever.ag in Platteville, Wisconisn. “The 185.4 million bushels crushed during the month outpaced trade guesses by 9.5 million bushels.  Dry weather remains an issue in South America although rain is forecasted for parts of Brazil and Argentina in the near future.”

“Regardless, managed money has hitched its wagon to crop development issues and seemingly are looking to set up a test of $12/bu in time,” he adds.  “Resistance on the charts does come in there, dating back to the summer of 2016.  Lower ending stocks and good demand on corn continue to push that market while wheat is treading water.”  

Weather and fund buying are factors in today’s bean prices, says Jack Scoville of the PRICE Futures Group.

“Beans are up sharply,” Scoville says.  “It is still dry in southern Brazil and into Argentina but I think there must be some business around too.  We are up a lot due to the charts as well as we are coming out of a week-long sideways formation that is not very big but seems to be causing a lot of fund buying.  Corn had the demand, 195,000 tons to Mexico, but not the weather for now.  Wheat is all about Russia and world prices being a bit softer.  Trends are still up pretty much across the Board.”  

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DES MOINES, Iowa – In early trading Tuesday, grain futures are trading higher with soybeans up sharply.

Shortly after the open, the Dec. corn futures are 3¾¢ higher at $4.20. March corn futures are 3¢ higher at $4.27¼. 

January soybean futures are 19¾¢¢ higher at $11.73¼. March soybean futures are 18¼¢ higher at $11.72¾.

Dec. wheat futures are ¾¢ higher at $5.98¾¢. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $8.40 per short ton higher at $397.70.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.23¢ higher at 37.66¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $.35 per barrel higher (-0.85%) at $40.99. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 343 points lower (-1.15%) 29,606 points.

“The rebound in the bull corn spreads in corn is a positive signal that the recent pullback in corn prices was just a consolidation of the gains, now a signal of a top,” says Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors in his pre-opening report. “This week and next week are key change-of-trend weeks on my long-term charts. The key level that needs to hold is last week’s low.”

Also on Tuesday, the Foreign Agriculture Service said that private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 195,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

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DES MOINES, Iowa – At the close of CME Group trading Monday, corn, wheat and soybean futures finished higher.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures ended 5¾¢ higher at $4.16¼. March corn futures finished 4¾¢ higher at $4.24¼. 

January soybean futures closed 5½¢ higher at $11.53½. March soybean futures finished 6½¢ higher at $11.54½.

Dec. wheat futures ended 4½¢ higher at $5.98. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $1.20 per short ton higher at $389.30.

Dec. soy oil futures ended 0.30¢ higher at 37.43¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.19 per barrel higher (+2.89%) at $41.29. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 368 points higher (+1.25%) 29,847 points.

Matt Tranel of ever.ag agrees with Don Roose of U.S. Commodities that the stock market is influencing commodities today.

“Grain markets are mainly higher today due to outside markets,” he says. “Moderna Inc. released positive news regarding it's covid-19 vaccine after their latest tests.  Markets also popped last week when Pfizer did the same.  The stock market raced back towards its contract highs lifting oil and most commodities.  Demand and South American weather uncertainty are in the mix as well.”

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DES MOINES, Iowa – At mid-session Monday, gains in soybean and corn futures are strengthening.

By late morning, the Dec. corn futures are 4¼¢ higher at $4.14¾. March corn futures are 3½¢ higher at $4.23. 

January soybean futures are 3¼¢ higher at $11.51¼. March soybean futures are 4¢ higher at $11.52.

Dec. wheat futures are 2¼¢ higher at $5.95¾. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.10 per short ton higher at $389.20.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.20¢ higher at 37.33¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.16 per barrel higher (+2.89%) at $41.29. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 378 points higher (+1.28%) 29,858 points.

The stock market, which saw the Dow reach a record high Monday, is influencing commodities today, says Don Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

Monday, the drug maker, Moderna, announced that its vaccine against Covid-19 appears to be 95% effective.

“The trade wants to believe we’re getting closer to normality,” Roose says.

This comes on top of USDA’s recent WASDE report showing what Roose calls “razor tight” U.S. soybean supplies. The projected carryover of 190 million bushels is barely above what’s considered a minimum “pipeline” supply of 100-to-120 million bushels needed to avoid rationing by the market.

“The trade realizes we need to get a bumper crop out of South America to help buffer the tight supplies,” Roose says.

Weekend rains in South America helped improve the crop outlook there and briefly pushed grain futures down in early overnight trading, but that was before Moderna’s announcement and the bullish stock market, Roose says.

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DES MOINES, Iowa – In early trading Monday, soybean and corn futures are trading higher.

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 1¼¢ higher at $4.11¾. March corn futures are ¾¢ higher at $4.20¼. 

January soybean futures are 2½¢ higher at $11.50½. March soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $11.51.

Dec. wheat futures are 4¼¢ lower at $5.89¼. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.10 per short ton higher at $389.20.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.21¢ higher at 37.34¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.80 per barrel higher (+4.49%) at $41.93. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 363 points higher (+1.23%) 29,843 points.

“The macro markets are all positive today,” says Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors in his pre-opening report. “US and global stocks are higher, and energy prices are also firm.  On Friday, the grain markets closed higher with corn closing 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans 3 cents higher and wheat 4 to 6 cents higher. In China on the Dalian, corn futures are 11 cents higher at $9.25 per bushel, and soybean futures are 1 cent higher at $20.98 per bushel.”

“With planting delays and the [uneven] start to the crop year in many areas of Brazil and Argentina, private estimates of the corn and soybean crops from South America will continue to move lower this week,” he adds. 

Kluis will be watching the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) soybean crush report released later today.

“The trade estimate is for 177.1 million bushels. This would imply nationwide crush of 188 million bushels--a new record for October,” he says. “In the first two months of this year, crush is estimated to be running 10 million bushels higher than last year. The key: With larger crush, will soybean oil inventories increase?”

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