Friday's ag markets end mostly lower

China buys a large, fresh batch of U.S. soybeans.

On Friday, the CME Group’s soybean market finished mostly lower, despite strong demand from China buys more U.S. product.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 3¢ lower at $3.79 1/4. March corn futures finished 2 3/4¢ lower at $3.89 1/4.
 
Nov. soybean futures ended 2 3/4¢ lower at $10.27 3/4. January soybean futures finished 2 1/2¢ lower at $10.24 1/4.

Dec. wheat futures settled 3¢ higher at $5.73. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $4.00 per short ton higher at $351.90. Dec. soy oil futures closed $0.76 cent lower at 31.66¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.71 per barrel lower at $36.80. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 134 points lower.

n Friday, private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

  • Export sales of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 252,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Bob Linneman, Kluis Advisors, says that the funds are expected to get longer the markets, pushing up prices. 

“New crop corn futures managed to punch through the $3.85 mark briefly on Thursday. Traders expect the funds to add to long positions on the heels of the friendly quarterly Grain Stocks report this week. November soybeans had a less-than-ideal follow-through trade after the friendly USDA report. The cautious trading action in the soybean bull spreads leads me to believe prices will begin to etch out a trading range until we get another wave of exports or a change in South American weather,” Linneman told customers in a daily note.   

He added, “The drier weather this fall has allowed corn to dry down naturally. This should allow farmers to maximize storage with high-quality corn. This scenario could drive corn basis to tighten beyond normal levels in coming months.”

--------------------

Thursday’s Market Review

DES MOINES, Iowa – At the close of CME Group trading Thursday, corn futures finished higher while soybeans were unchanged.

At the close, Dec. corn futures ended 3¾¢ higher at $3.82¾. March corn futures finished 3¾¢ higher at $3.92.
 
Nov. soybean futures closed unchanged at $10.23½. January soybean futures finished unchanged at $10.27¼.

Dec. wheat futures ended 7¾¢ lower at $5.70¼. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $5.10 per short ton higher at $347.90. Dec. soy oil futures ended 0.71¢ lower at 32.42¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.49 per barrel lower at $38.73. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 5 points higher.

-----------------------------------------

DES MOINES, Iowa – At midsession Thursday, soybean and corn futures remain higher with corn strengthening from early trading.

In early trading, Dec. corn futures are 4¾¢ higher at $3.8¾. March corn futures are 4¢ higher at $3.92¼.
 
Nov. soybean futures are 3¾¢ higher at $10.27¼. January soybean futures are 3½¢ higher at $10.30¾.

Dec. wheat futures are 3¾¢ lower at $5.74¼. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $6.20 per short ton higher at $349. Dec. soy oil futures are 0.67¢ lower at 32.46¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.42 per barrel lower at $37.80. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 107 points higher.

Matt Tranel of the Commodity Risk Management Group offers this explanation for corn and soybean traders remaining positive thinkers today:

“Futures are being driven by managed money inflow,” he says. “The ‘funds’ as managed money is often referred to, have been long for a little while now. When net long positions from the funds reached 200,000 in soybeans (a level that often causes a pause in adding more), farmer selling along with profit taking caused a step back in the market. Whenever a rally takes place, the old saying is true: ‘Bulls have to be fed every day.’ The bulls were fed yesterday as well as this morning.”

“Smaller quarterly stocks in corn and soybeans yesterday were a surprise and friendly. This morning we saw export sales above trade estimates in both commodities as well,” he says. “The current bid in the market seems to have a target of testing our contract highs in soybeans and has already tested the December corn high from back in March. While trade has turned friendly and may continue for a little while, we must also remember that we’re in the midst of harvest where early yields are pointing towards a large crop.”  

--------------------------------------

DES MOINES, Iowa – In early trading Thursday, soybean and corn futures are higher, continuing Wednesday’s gains.

In early trading, Dec. corn futures are 3¾¢ higher at $3.82¾. March corn futures are 3½¢ higher at $3.91¾.
 
Nov. soybean futures are 5½¢ higher at $10.29. January soybean futures are 5¼¢ higher at $10.32½.

Dec. wheat futures are 2¾¢ lower at $5.75¼. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $3.60 per short ton higher at $346.40. Dec. soy oil futures are 0.05¢ lower at 33.08¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.28 per barrel lower at $38.94. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 216 points higher.

Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors says yesterday’s bullish Grain Stocks report likely triggered fund buying.

“Traders had estimated the funds liquidated nearly 30,000 soybean longs ahead of the report,” he says. “Will the funds resume the bull trend with the data from Wednesday? South American weather is making traders nervous earlier than normal. The world balance sheet could be greatly impacted if poor weather persists.” 

Separately, the USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report Thursday showed corn sales above trade expectations and soybean sales at the upper end of pre-report estimates.

  • Corn: 2,027,100 metric tons for 2020/2021. Trade expectations 800,000 to 1,400,000 mt new crop
  • Soybeans: 2,591,200 mt for 2020/2021. For soybeans, trade guesses ranged from 1,500,000 to 2,500,000 mt for the new crop
  •  Wheat: 506,300 mt for 2020/2021; 1,300 MT for 2021/2022
  • Soybean meal: 536,700 mt (old and new crop)

Also on Thursday, a USDA daily report showed  export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Egypt during the 2020/2021 marketing year.  

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

USDA issues both daily and weekly export sales reports to the public. Exporters are required to report to USDA any export sales activity of 100,000 tons or more of one commodity, made in one day or quantities totaling 200,000 tons or more in any reporting period, except 20,000 tons for soybean oil, made in one day to one destination or quantities totaling 40,000 tons or more in any reporting period, by 3:00 p.m. Eastern time on the next business day following the sale. Export sales of less than these quantities must be reported to USDA on a weekly basis.

---------------------------------------------

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets rallied off of the USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report to finish sharply higher.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 14¼¢ higher at $3.79. March corn futures settled 14½¢ higher at $3.88¼.
 
Nov. soybean futures settled 30½¢ higher at $10.23 3/4. January soybean futures closed 30¼¢ higher at $10.27¼.

Dec. wheat futures finished 28½¢ higher at $5.78. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $10.90 per short ton higher at $342.80. Dec. soy oil futures settled $0.44 cent higher at 33.13¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.59 per barrel higher at $39.88. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 221 points higher.

On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 215,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
 
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Bob Linneman, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are keeping their trades close to their vests, ahead of today’s USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. 

“The lack of follow-through buying could be tied to the USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report today – traders may not want to extend exposure ahead of this report. Soybeans posted their seventh consecutive day with lower lows and lower highs on the chart. It is worth noting that the spread between July and November 2021 soybeans has found support near the 50¢ mark. If weather in South America becomes problematic, then this spread could get very interesting in coming months,” Linneman told customers in a daily note.   

He added, “Last year, the September 2019 Grain Stocks report gave the bulls some much-needed momentum. Pre-report expectations for today’s report are for a minimal adjustment. The stage is set for momentum to make a big swing if the report is a surprise.”

------------------------

Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets fade the USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that will be released Wednesday.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 2¢ lower at $3.64½. March corn futures finished 1½¢ lower at $3.74.
 
Nov. soybean futures closed 3¼¢ lower at $9.93. January soybean futures ended 3¼¢ lower at $9.97.

Dec. wheat futures settled ¾¢ lower at $5.49½. 

Dec. soymeal futures finished $2.00 per short ton lower at $331.90. Dec. soy oil futures closed 0.42¢ lower at 32.69¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.47 per barrel lower at $39.13. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 63 points lower.

On Tuesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 100,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that it looks like a risk off day for all commodities. 

“Plus, there is no China buying to support the market. The harvest is expanding under very good conditions weather-wise. I have not yet heard any yield reports to speak of this week, but those in northern Illinois have been a little disappointing for beans. The dry weather in August really hurt the bean crop. We have the presidential debates tonight, and that is enough to send some of the big speculator investors to the sidelines,” Scoville says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will watch to see if Monday’s soybean low of $9.91 will stick. 

“On Monday, the grain markets were under pressure initially from farmer sales in the U.S. and fund liquidation ahead of the Wednesday Grain Stocks report. Corn posted a hook reversal higher closing up 1¢ to 2¢, wheat closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher, and soybean futures closed 2¢ to 6¢ lower,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.   

He added, “The USDA weekly crop report on Monday afternoon showed corn ratings unchanged at 61% good to excellent. Soybean ratings improving by 1%. Corn harvest was reported at 15% complete, and nationwide soybean harvest was reported at 20%.”

-----------------

DES MOINES, Iowa – At the close of CME Group trading Monday, corn futures closed higher while soybeans settled lower.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 1½¢ higher at $3.66¾. March corn futures ended 2¼¢ higher at $3.75½.
 
Nov. soybean futures closed 6¼¢ lower at $9.96¼. January soybean futures finished 6¢ lower at $10.00¼.

Dec. wheat futures ended 6¢ higher at $5.50¼. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $4.70 per short ton lower at $333.90. Dec. soy oil futures ended 0.29¢ higher at 33.11¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.29 per barrel higher at $40.54. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 506 points higher.

---------------------------------

DES MOINES, Iowa – At mid-session Monday, corn futures are up – slightly above Friday’s close – while soybeans are lower, slipping below $10.

In late morning trading, the Dec. corn futures are 2½¢ higher at $3.67¾. March corn futures are 3¢ higher at $3.76¼.
 
Nov. soybean futures are 7¾¢ lower at $9.94¾. January soybean futures are 8¢ lower at $9.98¼.

Dec. wheat futures are 3¾¢ higher at $5.48. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $6.50 per short ton lower at $332.10. Dec. soy oil futures are 0.07¢ higher at 32.89¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.17 per barrel higher at $40.42. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 484 points higher.

 “Soybeans are down after no confirmation of additional business to China,” says Jack Scoville of PRICE Futures Group.  “There were sales to unknown destinations for Soybeans today, but the amount indicates that this is probably not for China.  Harvest is ongoing and farmers are supposed to be selling beans as fast as possible.”

“Corn is up a bit with the export sales this morning,” he adds. “Corn is being held by farmers and beans are being sold. Wheat is also firm after being lower overnight.  Wheat is more of a function of the world price which appears to be firm so far today.”

--------------------------------------------

DES MOINES, Iowa – In early trading Monday, soybean and corn futures are lower, mostly erasing Friday’s bounce.

In early trading, the Dec. corn are 2¾¢ lower at $3.62½. March corn futures are 2½¢ lower at $3.70¾.
 
Nov. soybean futures are 2¢ lower at $10.00½. January soybean futures are 2¢ lower at $10.04¼.

Dec. wheat futures are 4¾¢ lower at $5.39½. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $2.00 per short ton lower at $336.60. Dec. soy oil futures are 0.15¢ lower at 32.67¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.04 per barrel lower at $40.21. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 412 points higher.

 “The USDA Crop Progress report today will show corn harvest at about 14% and soybean harvest at 16%, says Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors. “More attention is now on South America, where it stays dry in central and northern Brazil. Farmers in most of Brazil are waiting to plant soybeans. This is a less-than-ideal start to their growing season. Watch the weather and weather forecasts for both Argentina and Brazil. Private analysts have taken the projected corn and soybean yields lower already in Argentina, and central Brazil remains hot and dry in the extended forecasts.” 

Even after last week’s pullback from the recent recovery in grain futures Kluis remains bullish.

“The grain markets closed mixed on Friday in a choppy week of trade,” he says. “However, even with Friday’s higher close, the corn, soybean, and wheat markets were lower for the week. My weekly corn and soybean charts show an inside week. I view this as a correction in the long-term bull market. On Friday, corn closed 2 cents higher, soybeans were 2 to 3 cents higher, and wheat closed 1 higher to 7 lower.”

Read more about

Tip of the Day

Keep your scraper level with an RV accessory

land plane Borrow from the world of RV accessories to check that the scraper is staying level.

Talk in Marketing