Corn, Soybean Prices Close Off of Daily Highs Thursday
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Despite weak export sales, the CME Group’s soybean market pushed higher Thursday. Corn and soybeans did finish way off their daily highs.
At the close, the July corn futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.85¾, and December futures finished 1½¢ higher at $4.03¾.
July soybean futures ended 7¼¢ higher at $9.38; November soybean futures settled 8¢ higher at $9.43¾.
July wheat futures ended 4½¢ higher at $4.49¼.
July soy meal futures closed $1.20 per short ton higher at $306.10. July soy oil futures settled 0.49¢ higher at 31.85¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.06 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher.
Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grains analyst, says that it remains a weather-driven market.
“Grains are continuing to add premium today, dominated by a warm, dry weather forecast, which is concerning to the early development of the corn and beans. The firm tone is also contributing to positioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA crop report,” Roose says.
On Thursday, the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report found corn and soybean sales missed expectations.
- Wheat: 461,000 metric tons (mt) vs. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000 and 600,000 mt
- Corn: 476,600 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000 and 850,000 mt
- Soybeans: 80,900 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000 and 900,000 mt
- Soy meal: 95,700 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 50,000 and 175,000 mt
Wednesday’s Grain Market Review
On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets closed with strength.
Continued crop weather concerns build risk premium into the markets.
At the close, the July corn futures settled 7¼¢ higher at $3.84¾; December futures finished 6¾¢ higher at $4.02.
July soybean futures settled 7¼¢ higher at $9.30¾, and November soybean futures finished 4¢ higher at $9.35¾.
July wheat futures ended 9¢ higher at $4.44¾.
July soy meal futures closed $3.80 per short ton higher at $304.90. July soy oil futures finished 0.03¢ cents lower at 31.36¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $2.20 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 38 points higher.
Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says a few things are moving the markets today.
“The weather is a big fundamental, and the forecasts for hot and dry this weekend are creating the fundamental reason to buy,” Scoville says. “We might fade if the weather turns better next week, but we must remember that the spec is a very big short, especially in the corn market.”
Hot now means maybe hotter later, and given the fact that we have been trading near the lows for an extended period of time, it seems prudent for the short spec to cover at least part of that position, Scoville says.
“That is what is propelling us higher now. The weekly charts for corn and wheat show that uptrends are under way. Corn can rally to $4.03 and then $4.30 as swing targets on the weekly charts. Beans are the follower, based on the need to move soybeans from South America and the potential for bigger production here,” he says.
Tuesday’s Grain Market Review
The CME Group’s farm futures finish off the daily highs, but still stronger, as extreme heat forecasts heat up risk premium talk.
At the close, the July corn futures finished 4¼¢ higher at $3.77¼, while December futures closed 3¾¢ higher at $3.95¾.
July soybean futures settled 1½¢ higher at $9.23; November soybean futures closed 3¾¢ higher at $9.31.
July wheat futures finished 6¼¢ higher at $4.35¾.
July soy meal futures finished 50¢ per short ton higher at $301.10. July soy oil futures closed 0.08¢ higher at 31.39¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 74¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.
Michael Rusch, sales director ag/commercial for Stewart-Peterson, says the corn futures are staging a rally, sending contracts through their range highs that served as a resistance barrier since early March.
“December corn is making the biggest technical move, up 6¢ to $3.98, above its double top at $3.95¾. July corn is up 6¾¢ to $3.79¾, eclipsing that contract’s range high of $3.79½,” Rusch says.
Rusch adds, “Dryness in North Dakota and South Dakota supporting spring wheat, funds heavily short, dollar index making new lows, above-normal temps in the forecast for the next two weeks. Our advisers were a bit surprised expecting corn to be lower due to better-than-expected crop conditions yesterday. Double-digit gains in wheat and soybeans are also noted.”
“We believe that this is a sign of long-awaited short covering by the funds, as weather forecasts begin to warrant weather premium across the grain and oilseed complex,” Rusch says.
Crop progress is adequate, but widely variable following a delayed planting program in the eastern Corn Belt and now drying conditions in the central and northern Corn Belt, Rusch says.
Soybean futures jumped higher in early trade, as contracts attempt to climb back to their previous trading ranges following a price fallout to end the month of May, Rusch says.
Jul beans peaked at $9.34¼ on gains of 9¾¢; Nov got to $9.39¾ on gains of 11¾¢ before stalling.
“High heat forecast for the Dakotas and depleted top soil moisture being reported in Nebraska and Iowa (where emergence in some counties is already questionable) is supporting today’s market strength. The revival precedes Friday’s USDA monthly Supply/Demand Reports,” Rusch says.
Monday’s Grain Market Review
On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets close up slightly.
At the close, the July corn futures settled ¼¢ higher at $3.73, and December futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.92.
July soybean futures finished ¾¢ higher at $9.22; November soybean futures settled 2½¢ higher at $9.28.
July wheat futures finished unchanged at $4.29.
July soy meal futures closed $1.30 per short ton lower at $300.60. July soy oil futures closed 0.30¢ higher at 31.31¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 36¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.
Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy grain analyst, says the markets seem to be struggling for new information at the moment.
“Additionally, the heavy supplies from South America continue to limit any upside, despite concerns over eastern Belt wetness and dryness in the Plains,” Meyer says.
On Monday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year, and 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.