Soybeans and corn close slightly lower Friday

Crop futures listless after this week’s USDA reports.

Soybeans and corn ended Friday slightly lower as investors weighed positive export sales data against rainfall in the Midwest. 

At the close, November soybeans were down 1½¢ to $8.98 a bushel. 

December corn lost a penny to $3.37¾ a bushel. 

Chicago wheat futures for December delivery rose 3¢ to $5.09½ a bushel while Kansas City wheat finished unchanged at $4.36 a bushel. 

Private exporters reported sales of 126,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the marketing year that starts on Sept. 1. 

That positive news was offset by recent rainfall and expectations for storms over the weekend in parts of Nebraka, Iowa, southern Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Still, some storms may turn severe, the National Weather Service said in a report on Friday.

“Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight into Saturday morning” in the region, the NWS said. “A few storms may be severe tonight, mainly west of the Mississippi River. The main hazards would be damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall.”

The storms are brewing after a derecho system earlier this week caused hurricane-force winds that toppled crops and farm buildings alike. The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and crop production reports this week also weighed on prices. 

Friday’s trade, however, was listless as technical traders made a few moves while others stayed on the sidelines heading into the weekend. 

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets are off to the races.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 10¾¢ higher at $3.25½. Dec. corn futures closed 11½¢ higher at $3.38¼.
 
Sept. soybean futures closed 15¾¢ higher at $8.96½. November soybean futures ended 16¼¢ higher at $8.99½.

Sep. wheat futures finished 5½¢ higher at $4.96¼. 

Sep. soymeal futures closed $7.90 per short ton higher at $292.10. Sept. soy oil futures closed 0.33¢ lower at 31.23¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.46 per barrel lower at $42.21. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 147 points lower.

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

  • Export sales of 197,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 30,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year and 80,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 202,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began Sept. 1.

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows strong demand figures.

Corn = 930,300 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 700,000 and 1.00 mmt. 

Soybeans = 3.40 million metric tons. vs. trade’s expectations of 1.10mmt to 2.34mmt. 

Wheat = 367,900 mt. 

Soybean meal = 252,400 mt.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors have a lot of data to chew on.
 

“The USDA suggested record-high corn and soybean yields, which would normally send prices lower this time of year. However, based on the positive reaction in prices, it is highly likely the bearish data was already taken for granted. Then the FSA data showed total prevent-plant acres just shy of 9 million. This is more than many traders were expecting. This means we may see an acreage adjustment, but it won’t happen until the October USDA report,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.  

He added, “Will traders be influenced by the increase in yield from the USDA? Or will the higher prevent-plant acreage sway their opinion of which way the market is going to move? The charts are getting closer to levels that will make the bears nervous.”

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets end mostly higher.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 3¢ higher at $3.14½. Dec. corn futures finished 3¼¢ higher at $3.27¼.
 
Sept. soybean futures settled 10¢ higher at $8.80½. November soybean futures closed 9½¢ higher at $8.83½.

Sep. wheat futures ended 3¾¢ lower at $4.91¾. 

Sep. soymeal futures settled $0.10 per short ton higher at $284.20. Sept. soy oil futures closed 0.94¢ higher at 31.56¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.11 per barrel higher at $42.72. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 288 points higher.

On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

  • Export sales of 258,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors eye today’s USDA Report.

“The trade has built in some very large yields and ending stocks numbers ahead of the key USDA reports that are out at 11 a.m. today. I think we may get a negative report, and that sets up a bad-news-at-the-bottom type of report. The most important time to watch the grain markets is between noon and the 1:15 close,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.  

He added, “Watch the FSA report on prevent-plant acreage, which will be released late this afternoon. Will we learn how U.S. farmers planted 7.4 million less acres in the 12 major crops in 2020 than we did in 2018.”

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets end higher.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.11½. Dec. corn futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.23¼.
 
Sept. soybean futures closed ½¢ higher at $8.70½. November soybean futures are ¼¢ higher at $8.73¼.

Sep. wheat futures closed 4¢ higher at $4.95. 

Sep. soymeal futures finished $0.30 per short ton lower at $284.10. Sept. soy oil futures ended 0.11¢ lower at 30.62¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.20 per barrel lower at $42.23. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 222 points higher.

On Tuesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors have one eye on the crop conditions and another on the outside markets.

“The USDA Crop Progress report showed corn ratings were unchanged from last week and soybean ratings improving by 1%. The corn rating was very close to what the trade had expected, while the soybean ratings were higher than expected,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.  

He added, “I am watching crude oil, gasoline, and gold prices continue to rally. The rally in all three markets is a long-term positive indicator for the entire commodity complex.”

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets begin the week higher. 

At the close, the Sept. corn futures settled 2¾¢ higher at $3.10½. Dec. corn futures ended 2¼¢ higher at $3.23.
 
Sept. soybean futures closed 4¾¢ higher at $8.70. November soybean futures closed 5¾¢ higher at $8.73.

Sep. wheat futures ended 4½¢ lower at $4.91. 

Sep. soymeal futures closed $2.40 per short ton higher at $284.40. Sept. soy oil futures closed $0.12 cent lower at 30.73¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.66 per barrel higher at $41.88. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 300 points higher.

On Monday, private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

  • Export sales of 111,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 324,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be positioning themselves ahead of next week’s USDA August Supply/Demand report.  

“Private trade estimates continue to suggest a record corn and soybean yield in the USDA Crop Production report on Wednesday,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.  

He added, “The USDA Crop Progress Report today will show corn conditions steady to 1% lower and soybeans unchanged from last week. Conditions remain very high with all eyes on what the USDA reports for the conditions in Iowa.”

Kluis stated, “Watch the conditions report today, and then the U.S. drought monitor on Thursday. The report last week showed that in Iowa, 74% is abnormally dry and 6% is in extreme drought. If dry conditions continue in Iowa, then it will be very difficult to achieve the private forecast calling for 182-bushel-per-acre corn.”

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