Farm Markets Edge Higher Thursday

Corn, Soybean Futures Settle Lower

2/25/2016

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)-- On Thursday, the CME Group's corn and soybean markets have turned lower, as the USDA projects larger 2016 U.S. acreage.

At mid-session, the May corn futures are trading 3 1/2 cents lower at $3.61. May soybean futures are 3 cents lower at $8.69.  May wheat futures are trading 2 cents higher at $4.53. May soymeal futures are $0.50 per short ton lower at $264.10. May soyoil futures are trading $0.27 lower at $30.92.  In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.94 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 60 higher.

On Thursday, the USDA updated its 2016 Crop Production estimates at the Ag Outlook Forum. For corn, USDA projects 90 million acres, down 1/2 million from a year ago. U.S. soybean acreage is raised to 82.5 mill. vs. 82.0 million a year ago and U.S. all-wheat acreage is projected at 51.0 million, 3.6 million lower than a year ago.

Overall, the USDA expects total acreage of 8 major crops to go down in 2016, along with prices. 8 major crops acreage is expected to drop by 1 percent to 249.1 million acres in 2016.

Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy senior grain analyst, says that the markets are starving for new data.

“Today’s acreage estimates from the USDA’s Outlook Forum were pretty much in line with expectations. So, the lack of anything new is a negative given the current market structure,” Meyer says.

The 172.5 million combined acres for corn and soy seemed reasonable, he days.

“But, it does not take into consideration the very low 51 million acres in wheat. Somehow, a reconciliation of the wheat acreage, as it pertains to corn and soybean acreage, must be forthcoming at some point.”

What the USDA did today with their acreage numbers was assure that the S&D’s released tomorrow will not have carry-outs above 2 billion in corn, 1 billion in wheat, and 500 million in soybeans, Meyer says. I

“It did little more than that. The numbers also confirm in our opinion that a so-called V-shaped recovery in pricing is far-fetched,” Meyer says.