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Market eyes Monday's planting number

Overnight and morning maps put more rain Friday into all three forecast maps, keeping conditions wet from day 1 out to day 15. This offered very good support to the corn market once again today. While the noon maps did go slightly drier we already know that the noon maps are generally ignored waiting for the Sunday night update. Trade is getting the idea that most of the corn not planted on Monday’s progress report is going to be given up on. This will make watching Monday’s progress report very important. Keep in mind that trade has already factored in that 3 million acres will be switched or put into preventative plant. That would mean trade feels that 3% of the total corn acreage will not be planted. If Monday shows a corn planting pace leaving 5% not planted then trade will have a bullish reaction. Right now trade is just guessing an acreage loss and we will find out the true final number at the end of the month. Looking past the weather update and the planting pace report will be Wednesday’s supply/demand report.

 Early thoughts are for old crop corn carryout to go from 731 million bushels in May to 733 million next week, no real change. For new crop trade is looking for carryout to go from 2.004 million bushels down to 1.795 next week. While trade is putting its new crop estimates at nearly 1.8 million, it should be mentioned that most of the talk recently has been more along the lines of 1.7 million. Once again for the short term, it will come down to Sunday night’s weather for short term guidance. Overnight weather was wet, this morning was wet so it makes us wonder just how wet Sunday night needs to be to continue a rally. Bulls will gain much more momentum from the planting pace number Monday. Bears are looking for the high pressure ridge to move back into the forecast Sunday night which lately has been in, out, in, out, etc…Ryan Ettner

Trade recommendations:

  • Buy December corn at 525, risk to 492, objective 560
  • Buy July/Sell December spread at 95, risk to 75, objective 120
  • Buy July/Sell December spread at 91, risk to 75, objective 120

Cattle Commentary

The cattle market was just plain buzzing with news Friday. Wholesale beef prices continued their decline all week with losses of $4.71 for choice and $3.19 for select through the morning report.This continues the general trend of negative news for the week. Tropical Storm Andrea is currently barreling up the East Coast. Though no one is expecting devastation from its path, this could limit some grilling demand and restaurant visits. Out Friday, the Canadian Farm and Trade Ministers released a list potential US products they may retaliate against the US with. In a process that may take 1 1/2 to 2 years, they will ask the WTO for approval on tariffs on US pork, beef, corn and other products. They also noted that Mexico is planned on similar measures in reaction to Country of Origin Labeling in the US. Last year, Canada bought 19% of our exports while Mexico picked up 14%. On a neutral note, the 7:30 am release of the monthly Employment Situation report found job growth of 175,000. That was considered neutral. With all of these issues in mind, cattle feeders were still a little reluctant to accept lower prices. We have confirmed trade at $124 in the North ($1 lower) but are waiting on numbers from the South. For general pricing, the June futures contract implied $123 cash trade in the South, likely going on at the time of this writing, and implies $120 by the end of the month. For those of you unaware, basis starts the month positive but ends negative. Monday marks First Notice Day for June futures. As cash cattle holds a big premium to futures, as it should right now, there should be no deliveries. Overall, we remain bearish on cattle. We feel June futures is correct with its assumption for $120 at the end of the month. If we are wrong somewhere it is with our expectation for July/August pricing. $115 remains our August futures target…Rich Nelson

Working Trade:

  • (5/13) Sold August 124 call 1.12, risk to 1.92. objective 0. Closed 0.37.




Rich Nelson
Allendale Inc.

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