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USDA data boosts corn market

DES MOINES, Iowa ( USDA released bullish data for the corn market, bearish for soybeans Friday. 

In its report, the USDA left the U.S. soybean ending stocks unchanged and lowered U.S. corn stocks. 

The USDA pegged the 2012-13 U.S. corn carryout at 632 million bushels compared to the average analysts estimate of 649 million and its previous estimate of 632 million bushels.

For U.S. soybeans, the 2012-13 carryout is estimated at 125 million bushels vs. the average analysts estimate of 122 million bushels and the USDA's February estimate of 125 million bushels.

The U.S. wheat carryout is pegged at 716 million bushels compared to the average analysts estimate of 713 million bushels and the USDA's last estimate of 691 million bushels.

Discuss the USDA/WASDE Reports in Marketing Talk

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice president says the report showed unchanged ending stocks estimates for corn and soybeans, which was a little bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans.  

"It is what I expected, though, as I think USDA wants to see the quarterly stocks report yet," Scoville says.  

USDA cut production for both in Argentina, but left Brazil alone which is not bullish, either, he says.  

"Wheat showed more stocks here and around the world, bearish wheat for sure but people have been selling wheat due to the rain and snow in the Great Plains.  Most of the bearish reaction, so far, has been in the beans. I think this has to do as much with the LatAm numbers, especially Brazil not changing," Scoville says.


USDA estimates the 2012-13 Brazil soybean output at 83.5 mmt vs. the average trade estimate of 83.4 mmt and the USDA's previous estimate of 83.5 mmt. For Argentina's 2012-13 soybean production, the USDA estimates the 2012-13 crop at 51.5 mmt, vs. the average trade estimate of 51.0 mmt and the USDA's previous estimate of 53.0 mmt.

For corn, the USDA pegged the 2012-13 Brazilian corn production at 72.5 mmt vs. the average trade estimate of 72.6 mmt and USDA's previous estimate of 72.5 mmt. For Argentina, the USDA estimates production at 26.5 mmt vs. the average estimate of 25.6 mmt and the USDA's previous at 27.0 mmt.

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading president, says, that there were few surprises in today’s report, although the reality of the old crop tightness in US soybeans does not seem to be adequately reflected. 

"Not only do old crop supplies for corn and soybeans remain particularly tight, but projections for soybean exports from the US are expected to be almost entirely supplanted by South American exports," Gilbertie says. 

This seems optimistic given the relentless demand the U.S. has seen by the Chinese for US soybeans and the building shipping delays at Brazilian ports, Gilbertie says. "Old crop soybeans may still have some price rationing ahead. Wheat is well balanced and global demand for all grains remains healthy."

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