USDA to Show Record Soybean Plantings?

Will the biggest USDA report of the year show that U.S. farmers will plant more soybeans than ever in 2015 and less corn? That is the consensus amongst many market watchers.

On Tuesday, the March Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks Reports will be released at 11:00 a.m. CT.

The average trade estimate for U.S. 2015 corn acreage is 88.7 million, about 2.0 million less than a year ago.

For U.S. soybeans, the average acreage estimate among surveyed trading firms comes in at 85.9 million. That is 2.0 million above last year’s planted total.

Meanwhile, the 2015 U.S. wheat acreage is estimated at 55.6 million, about 1.0 million less than a year ago.

Angelo Vignola, CME Group floor trader with H-F Grain Company, says that many analysts are calling for farmers to plant record soybean acreage, while cutting back on corn, for a third year in a row.

“This move is a result of corn losing 50% of its price. Analysts believe farmers will plant 3% more beans than last year and 2% less corn,” Vignola says.

Vignola adds, “The two main reasons for more soybeans include farmers seeing better profits with soybeans vs. corn. Also, demand for soybeans has remained strong," Vignola says.

Alan Brugler, president of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says the market is assuming the Planting Intentions Report will show less corn and wheat, more soybeans and milo.

“If any of those are not accurate, market should react,” Brugler says.

Also, the USDA will update its Quarterly Grain Stocks. For corn, the stocks, as of March 1, are expected to total 7.628 billion bushels.

The U.S. soybean stocks, as of March 1, are estimated at 1.341 billion bushels, according to surveyed analysts.

The U.S. March 1 wheat stocks are estimated to come in at 1.143 billion bushels.

Regarding the other report of the day, Quarterly Grain Stocks, the main thing to watch is whether they are all there. “Tighter than expected would boost old crop, since basis already says commercials are having trouble buying the grain,” Brugler says.

Jacob Burks, WedBush Futures market analyst, agrees that the stocks report could prove to be more important to the market Tuesday.

“Acreage has probably changed millions of acres since the report was compiled.  The more important issue is probably the stocks report. After the 11 a.m. reports, weather will take over the conversation,” Burks says.

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