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49787

Will USDA Print a 13 Billion-Bushel Corn Estimate?

The trade sees the USDA lowering U.S. 2015 corn and soybean yield and production estimates Wednesday. However, market watchers wonder just how low the USDA will drop output. 

In its August Supply/Demand and Crop Production Reports (to be released at 11:00 a.m. CT), the USDA is expected to estimate the 2015 U.S. corn crop at 13.318 billion bushels with a yield of 164.4 bushels per acre, according to a survey of market analysts.

If realized, the production estimate would be below the USDA’s July estimate and above its last yield estimate.

For U.S. 2015 soybeans, the average analysts' production estimate is 3.719 billion bushels, compared with USDA’s July estimate of 3.885 billion. In July, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean yield at 46.0 bushels per acre vs. this week’s analysts report expectation of 44.6 bushels per acre.

The market watchers will be eyeing the U.S. carryout estimates in Wednesday’s monthly report. For old-crop, the U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.781 billion bushels, compared with the USDA’s July estimate of 1.779 billion. For soybeans, the U.S. old-crop carryout is estimated by analysts to come in at 247 million bushels vs. the USDA’s July estimate of 255 million. 

In its report, the USDA is expected to peg the U.S. 2015-16 corn carryout at 1.427 billion bushels, compared with the USDA’s July estimate of 1.599 billion. The new-crop soybean carryout is estimated by the analysts' survey to come in around 305 million bushels vs. the USDA’s previous estimate of 425 million bushels.

On Wednesday, the USDA is expected to peg the 2015-16 wheat carryout at 858 million bushels vs. the USDA’s July estimate of 842 million. 

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