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U.S. Soybean Market Surges 38¢ Friday

The trade tariffs against China’s imports went into effect Friday.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s soybean market diverged from the day’s news of trade tariffs enacted on China.

At the close, the September corn futures finished 8¢ higher at $3.60¼. December futures are 8½¢ higher at $3.73.

August soybean futures finished 38¼¢ higher at $8.77½. November soybean futures closed 38¾¢ higher at $8.94½.

September wheat futures finished 9¾¢ higher at $5.15¼.

August soy meal futures closed $11.70 per short ton higher at $338.10. August soy oil futures ended 0.45¢ higher at 29.02¢.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.81 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 115 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that it is a sell-the-rumor-and-buy-the-fact kind of day. 

“We all knew the tariffs were coming and now they are here. Those that sold are now getting out. Even a 50% retracement could mean a $1.00 rally in beans and 35¢ rally in corn. So, this could extend awhile.  It does not have to, but it could. We will see the weather going forward. 

Scoville adds, “At the end of the day, the U.S. has now positioned itself not as the export source of choice for grains and oilseeds but the exporter of last resort. This is not good. But today is all sell the rumor and buy the fact and will not really last, I don’t think.”

The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report was released Friday.

  • Corn = 672,800 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 750,000 and 1.400 mmt
  • Soybeans = 1.020 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 400 and 1.000 mmt
  • Wheat = 440,000 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 250 and 500,000 mt

 

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets are leaning on the surging wheat market for strength.

At the close, September corn futures finished ¾¢ higher at $3.52¼; December futures ended ¼¢ higher at $3.64¾.

August soybean futures finished 8¾¢ lower at $8.39¼; November soybean futures settled 8½¢ lower at $8.55¾.

September wheat futures closed 14¼¢ higher at $5.05. 

August soy meal futures are 10¢ per short ton higher at $326.40. August soy oil futures trade 0.17¢ lower at $28.57.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.10 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 127 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S.Commodities, says the grains are trading mixed today.

"Price premium continues to be taken out with nonthreatening weather and fear Chinese tariffs, which would halt soybean imports, oversold technical conditions and the thought that the current news may already be dialed in at the current price levels."

 

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

Wednesday’s markets were closed due to the July 4 Holiday.

 

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s grain markets have edged higher, with wheat the leader.

At the open, September corn futures fare 7¢ higher at $3.54; December futures are 7¢ higher at $3.66.

August soybean futures are unchanged at $8.53; November soybean futures are ¼¢ lower at $8.69.

September wheat futures are 9¾¢ higher at $4.90.

August soy meal futures are 70¢ per short ton higher at $328.70. August soy oil futures are 0.04¢ higher at $28.92. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.19 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 117 points higher.

 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets have trimmed losses in the soybean market, but all commodities remain weaker.

A lot of the price pressure is coming from favorable crop weather, analysts say.

At the close, September corn futures finished 12½¢ lower at $3.47; December futures ended 12¼¢ lower at $3.59.

August soybean futures settled 10¢ lower at $8.53½; November soybean futures closed 10½¢ lower at $8.69½.

September wheat futures finished 21¢ lower at $4.80¼.

August soy meal futures closed $3 per short ton lower at $328. August soy oil futures finished 0.35¢ lower at $28.88. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 33¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 52 points lower.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says today’s trading has been fund-selling everywhere. 

“The tariffs are coming and it looks like they will be enacted. Even so, the beans act better than the grains,” Scoville says. 

He adds, “Weather conditions in the Midwest appear to be generally good, and ideas of super-high crop ratings are all around. Crops are very short in east-central Wisconsin, and were in the cold and wet part of the U.S. during spring prime planting time. But, the color looked great. 

“Lots of people are wondering what it will take to pop this thing. Many are disappointed after the better price action on Friday, but now it seems we have to get to the tariffs and stuff like that, before we care about the crop and the condition and weather in a big way again,” he says.

 

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