Soybeans close 18¢ lower | Thursday, March 25, 2021

Japan buys a fresh batch of U.S. corn Thursday.

On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets strip the soybean market of yesterday’s gains and add to wheat’s weakness.

At the close, the May corn futures settled 6¾¢ lower at $5.46½. July corn futures ended 4¾¢ lower at $5.32½. New-crop December corn futures closed 3½¢ lower at $4.65½. 
 
May soybean futures settled 18½¢ lower at $14.14. July soybean futures finished 16½¢ lower at $14.04½. New-crop November soybean futures closed 13½¢ lower at $12.14.

May wheat futures finished 12½¢ lower at $6.12¼. 

May soymeal futures ended $3.60 short term higher at $404.60.

May soy oil futures closed 2.50¢ lower at 54.98¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is -2.60 lower (-4.25%) at $58.58. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 75 points higher (+0.23%) at 32,495 points.

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 111,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows huge demand figures for corn. Here are the totals:

  • Corn = 4.481 million metric tons (mmt.) vs. the trade expectations of 4.0 to 5.1 mmt. Of the week’s total, China bought 3.8 mmt. 
  • Soybeans = 165,800 mt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 150,000 to 650,000 mt.
  • Wheat = 414,100 mt.
  • Soybean meal = 185,000 mt.

Britt O’Connell, ever.ag, says that investors are preparing for next week’s USDA data.  

“As the market looks forward to next Wednesday’s prospective plantings and quarterly stocks report, traders continue to position themselves, with increased volatility making way for larger intraday swings,” O’Connell says.  

This morning, the USDA released its export sales. They all came inline with trade expectations, she says.  

“Actual shipments continue to remain inline with the pace needed to meet USDA expectations with 2.036 mmt. of corn having left the country and 500k mt of soybeans shipped,” O’Connell says.  

She added, “With tighter corn and soybean stocks than we’ve seen since the recovery from the 2012 drought, the entire grain complex feels well supported with the opportunity for risk premium to be built in as weather concerns arise. We do not have the buffer in old crop that the market has been accustomed to, causing the markets to respond rapidly should yield reduction fears become relevant.”  

Bob Linneman, Kluis Advisors, says that the markets could be satisfied at current levels until more data next week.  

“The bull spreads have cooled off after posting a monster rebound rally the past two weeks. Traders are likely going to be content at current levels until we see the month-end USDA numbers,” Linneman stated in a daily note to customers.

Linneman added, “News of a shipping vessel blocking the Suez Canal was likely a key catalyst for this rally. Nearly 15% of the world’s water freight runs through this canal. Wednesday was a big day for the U.S. dollar as futures traded to the highest level in four months. Low interest rates in the U.S. should keep the dollar range-bound at lower levels. A breakout to new highs would be going against what economists and the Federal Reserve expect.”

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