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Analyst: Expect Volatile Soybean Trading Tuesday Morning

Beans were under a bit of pressure today as market bulls booked profits in front of the long three-day weekend. Market bears are still scratching their head about yesterday’s reaction to the bearish report. On Thursday, the USDA projected the June 1 stocks at 870 million bushels, which was quite a bit above the trade's 829 million expectations. Acres only came in at 145,000 lower than the trades estimated but still up 1.425 million from the March estimate.

Most in the trade thought we would see the market come under pressure, but obviously that didn’t happen. It looks like market bulls had other ideas as they bought the report right from the moment the numbers were released. The bull’s argument continues to be that the hot, dry summer that forecasters have been hyping since spring could wreak havoc on the national yield. A 1.5-bushel drop in the yield will more than offset yesterday’s found bushels.

Beans are in a situation where they are considered to make or break in August, so bulls have time to be proven right. The short-range forecast continues to call for good rains over the driest portions of the Midwest over the holiday weekend, which sets the market up for a volatile trade Tuesday morning as there will be no trade Monday or Monday night. Have a safe and happy Independence Day weekend.

Rich Nelson
Allendale Inc.
815-578-6161

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

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