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Corn Markets Look to Weather, Trade War Concerns

Overnight seemed to follow yesterday's trade but the day session had a different thought in mind, which looked to be Friday profit taking. Through the middle of the day, beans pulled back again as they did overnight, which limited some gains seen from early session profit taking in corn. A difference from today compared to previous sessions this week was that the morning trade of highest volume was buying and when that eased the corn slowly drifted back down. This was likely the Friday profit taking that high volume traders had sold throughout the week.

Weather maps added more rain in the 1 to 5 day outlook, which helps to limit some concern over the weekend heat. It is still possible to see a 1% decline in GTE ratings as of Sunday night, especially if the weekend rains turn out to be disappointing. All corn traders need to keep a close watch on the bean market short term, that market could continue to offer light to moderate influence on corn. Corn may start to see reduced influence from fund trading if they are close or already flat this market. Longer term weather maps continue to lack any real threats for a sudden weather scare bounce.

A key will still be to see beans ease up allowing for corn to attempt a bounce. As always let's see what Sunday night weather maps offer to start influence next week but corn traders should also be watching China news for active influence from beans.

Bulls

  • Bulls need to see a weather scare to spark interest in buyers who might otherwise remain on the sidelines concerned about bearish bean influence
  • Funds could be flat or at least close to flat corn, which could ease up fund liquidation pressure
  • The next potential for a serious (and largest factor of the summer) weather threat would be heat during pollination

Bears

  • If trade war concerns continue there is little doubt that at least light spill over pressure will be seen on corn
  • Weather maps suggested solid rains in all 15 days of the outlook on today's noon maps
  • July contract lows were taken out leaving very little for areas of chart support to be found

Rich Nelson
Allendale Inc. 
815-578-6161

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