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Corn, soybean prices close higher | Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Weather and government data are driving the markets.

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets close higher.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 6¢ higher at $5.51. New-crop Dec. futures closed 7¾¢ higher at $5.40½. March corn futures ended 8¼¢ higher at $5.48. 
August soybean futures closed 10¾¢ higher at $14.14. 

Sept. soybean futures settled 2¢ higher at $13.60. New-crop November soybean futures ended 1½¢ higher at $13.51¼.

Sept. wheat futures closed 7¢ lower at $6.33¾. 

Aug. soymeal futures finished $0.50 per short ton lower at $356.50.

Aug. soy oil futures closed 1.49¢ higher at 65.54¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 1.16 higher (+1.57%) at $75.26. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 91 points lower (-0.31%) at 34,887 points.

Britt O’Connell,, says that the grain markets are trading higher across the board after a benign WASDE report yesterday.

“While analysts were expecting a reduction to the corn yield, this number was left untouched at a trendline yield of 179.5 bpa. If realized, this would be a record. With unmet expectations, the market let the news roll off its shoulders pretty quickly and will be looking toward the Aug. report for yield reductions,” O’Connell says.  

She added, “After a healthy rejection of a move toward $5 corn, the market feels that it is too early to extract that much risk premium. In a year when the balance sheet is tight, small changes have a larger impact, with the market feeling more comfortable leaving in the risk premium. Soybeans will get their time in the lights here in a month or so. For now, they play follow the leader.”  

O’Connell says that wheat doesn’t get much market attention, but it’s worth noting that it appears the U.S. will have the smallest spring wheat crop since the drought of 1988. “Oat growers look to be cashing in this year with the smallest crop in history… $5 oats here we come?” 

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors watch the USDA’s monthly updates, but know that this is a critical month for crop condition reports. 

“The USDA reports showed about 100 million bushels less spring wheat than the trade had expected. The U.S. 2021 spring wheat crop is about 40% less than last year’s crop, and the same is true in Canada. The projections for corn and soybean ending stocks were close to our pre-report estimates. I still think the USDA is underestimating Chinese demand,” Kluis stated in a note to customers.  

Kluis added, “I am watching the USDA Crop Progress reports, which Monday showed corn conditions at 65% good-to-excellent. This was up 1% from last week and close to trade estimates. This compared to the long term average of 67% good-to-excellent. For soybeans, the ratings came in at 59%, unchanged from last week and compares with the long-term average at 65.4% GE. This is the critical month to watch the weekly corn conditions reports.”

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