Content ID

322777

Pre-USDA report estimates cut Brazil's soybean production

U.S. crop, ending stocks seen mostly unchanged.

In a report that the USDA uses to print its final U.S. crop production estimates for 2021, the number that could get most of the attention Wednesday will be Brazil’s soybean production output.

Due to the dry weather in November and December, the trade expects the USDA to drop its estimate of South America’s crop production.

On Wednesday, the USDA is scheduled to release its January Supply/Demand; U.S. Crop Production; World Production; U.S. Quarterly Stocks reports at 11:00am CT.

2021/2022 U.S. Ending Stocks

For corn, the USDA is expected to peg the U.S. new-crop ending stocks at 1.47 billion bushels vs. the December estimate of 1.49 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks are expected to come in at 348 million bushels vs. the USDA's December estimate of 340 million.

The trade sees the USDA’s wheat ending stocks coming in at 608 million bushels vs. the USDA’s December estimate of 598 million bushels.

2021/2022 World Ending Stocks

On average, the trade sees the USDA printing the world’s corn ending stocks at 304 mmt. vs. the USDA’s December estimate of 305.5 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are expected to come in at 99.9 mmt. vs. the USDA’s December estimate of 102.0 mmt.

For wheat, the USDA is seen estimating the world ending stocks at 278.1 mmt, equal to the USDA’s previous estimate of 278.1 mmt.

Quarterly Grain Stocks

For corn, the trade sees the USDA printing stocks, as of Dec. 1, at 11.6 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the quarterly grain stocks are seen coming in at 3.1 billion bushels.

The USDA is seen pegging the U.S. wheat quarterly grain stocks at 1.40  billion bushels.

2021/2022 WORLD CROP PRODUCTION

The trade is expecting the USDA to drop the 2021 Brazilian soybean production from its December estimate of 144.0 mmt. to 141.6 mmt.

For corn, Brazil’s output is expected to come in at 116.1 mmt. vs. the USDA’s December estimate of 118.0 mmt.

For Argentina’s soybean output, the trade expects the USDA’s estimate at 48.1 mmt. vs. the USDA’s December estimate of 49.5 mmt.

Argentina’s 2020/2021 corn crop is expected to come in at 53.5  mmt vs. the USDA’s previous estimate of 54.5 mmt.

U.S. 2021/22 CROP PRODUCTION

On Wednesday, the USDA is expected to peg the U.S. corn production at 15.06 billion bushels, according to the trade, equal to the government’s November estimate.

The U.S. corn yield is seen unchanged at 177.0 bushels per acre vs. the USDA’s November estimate.

For soybeans, the USDA is expected tp print an output figure of at 4.43 billion bushels, slightly above the USDA’s November estimate of 4.42 billion.

For yield, the soybean average is seen coming in at 51.0 bu./acre, unchanged from the USDA’s November estimate.

U.S. Harvested Acreage

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2021 corn harvested acreage at 85.0 million, according to the trade estimates, unchanged from the government’s November estimate.

For soybeans, the trade sees the U.S. 2021/2022 harvested acreage at 86.4 million, unchanged from the November estimate.

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