Content ID

148540

Rain to Determine Corn Price, Analyst Says

Harvest Progress Eyed Next Week

A little more volume was seen on today’s trade to end the week, yet not much price movement was seen.

Through most of the day, corn was stuck between the beans’ influence weighing on corn and wheat spending most of the day offering light support. With yield reports from the field still coming in today, as trade has already assumed, it is difficult to come up with much reason why corn needs to move much higher or lower.

Recently, corn yield numbers have improved, which could cause a slow grind lower for this market. But for the most part, at this point, trade will still consider any reports “as expected.”

Next week we’ll have to take a look at the updated weather forecast maps for direction, early on in the week. If they are generally clear like they were today, we can expect to start the week with light pressure. If rains are added, corn might be able to find at least light support.

Monday afternoon’s harvest progress report can also offer influence. Trade will assume harvest remains slightly below average pace, so its influence will come from whether pace falls further behind expectations or if it can catch up a bit.

Bulls

  • Bulls will be looking for a forecast on Monday that puts rain back in, slowing harvest for next week.
  • Bulls will look for harvest pace to fall further behind average pace; last week was 3% behind pace.
  • Chart support remains down in the mid-320s before aggressive speculative buying can be expected.

Bears

  • Any clear forecast should continue to add resistance to this market.
  • Harvest yield numbers coming in above 230 bushels per acre next week can add more pressure to this market as it might suggest trade’s estimate is a bit low.
  • Bears will want to watch beans. If that market can take out support in the 930s, it could suddenly offer active weight to the corn as well.
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