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Soybean futures close higher | Friday, July 9, 2021

Corn gives up risk premium.

At the close Friday, the Sept. corn futures contract settled 7¼¢ lower at $5.29½. New-crop Dec. futures finished 6¾¢ lower at $5.17. March corn futures ended 6½¢ lower at $5.25.  
 
August soybean futures finished 14¢ higher at $13.79¼.

Sept. soybean futures closed 12¾¢ higher at $13.38¾. New-crop November soybean futures ended 9¾¢ higher at $13.29¼.

Sept. wheat futures closed 3¢ lower at $6.15. 

Aug. soymeal futures finished $2.70 per short ton lower at $354.10

Aug. soy oil futures closed 1.87¢ higher at 62.35¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.67 higher (+2.29%) at $74.61. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 440 points higher (+1.28%) at 34,862 points.

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At mid-session Friday, corn futures continue lower and soybeans have turned higher.

The Sept. corn futures are 9¼¢ lower at $5.27½. New-crop Dec. futures are 9¾¢ lower at $5.14. March corn futures are 9¾¢ lower at $5.21¾.  
 
August soybean futures are 6¾¢ higher at $13.65.

Sept. soybean futures are 4¾¢ higher at $13.30¾. New-crop November soybean futures are 2¾¢ higher at $13.22¼.

Sept. wheat futures are 4½¢ lower at $6.13½. 

Aug. soymeal futures are $3.20 per short ton lower at $353.60.

Aug. soy oil futures are 1.37¢ higher at 61.85¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.57 higher (+2.15%) at $74.51. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 444 points higher (+1.29%) at 34,865 points.

Don Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines sees several reasons for soybean futures turning up after starting lower today.

Palm oil prices are up, driving an upturn in soybean oil prices, he says. And soybeans look better on charts than corn from a technical perspective.

Weather, too is a factor, with flooding and forecast flooding in low-lying areas of southeast Iowa and Missouri.

“We know soybeans don’t like wet feet, so that’s what’s going on,” he says.

For corn, weather is having the opposite effect. With most pollination expected between July 10 and July 25, widespread rain and forecast rain in Iowa and the western Corn Belt is expected to help the crop through that crucial stage.

“We’re taking risk premium out of the market,” Roose says of current trends in corn futures.

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In early trading Friday, corn and soybean futures are lower following a USDA weekly export report (released a day late after the July Fourth holiday) that was below trade estimates.

The Sept. corn futures are 7¼¢ lower at $5.29½. New-crop Dec. futures are 9¼¢ lower at $5.14½. March corn futures are 9¼¢ lower at $5.22¼.  
 
August soybean futures are ¼¢ lower at $13.65.

Sept. soybean futures are 2¾¢ lower at $13.23¼. New-crop November soybean futures are 2¾¢ lower at $13.16¾.

Sept. wheat futures are 5¢ lower at $6.13. 

Aug. soymeal futures are $2.20 per short ton lower at $354.60.

Aug. soy oil futures are unchanged at 60.48¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.62 higher (+0.85%) at $73.56. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 257 points higher (+0.75%) at 34,551 points.

As thundershowers move across the western Corn Belt early Friday, Bob Linneman of Kluis Commodity Advisors offered these thoughts on the weather market:

“Even though many dry areas in the western Corn Belt received some degree of moisture this week, the likelihood of those acres hitting maximum yield potential are slim. It takes a lot of lost production before we see a national yield decline,” Linneman said.

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Friday shows corn exports at the low end of trade guesses and soybean exports  below pre-report estimates.

Corn = 173,200 metric tons (mt), old crop, vs. trade expectations of 100,000 to +350,000 and 198,200 mt new crop vs. trade guesses of 150,000 to 650,000.  

Soybeans = 63,800 metric tons (mt), old crop, vs. trade expectations of 100,000 to +275,000 and 118,500 mt new crop vs. trade guesses of 200,000 to 500,000.

USDA noted that old crop corn sales were up from the previous week and the four-week average while old crop soybean sales were below recent levels.

Wheat = 290,800 mt.

Soybean meal = 211,800 (old crop) and 55,800 (new crop).

Also on Friday, USDA’s daily report showed that private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 228,600 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2021/2022 marketing year. 

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

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At the close Thursday, the Sept. corn futures contract settled 6¢ lower at $5.36¾. New-crop Dec. futures finished 7¼¢ lower at $5.23¾. March corn futures ended 7¼¢ lower at $5.31½.  
 
August soybean futures finished 1½¢ lower at $13.65¼.

Sept. soybean futures closed 6¾¢ lower at $13.26. New-crop November soybean futures ended 7¾¢ lower at $13.19½.

Sept. wheat futures closed 4¼¢ lower at $6.18. 

Aug. soymeal futures finished $1.90 per short ton lower at $356.80.

Aug. soy oil futures closed 0.58¢ lower at 60.48¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.40 higher (+0.55%) at $72.60. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 368 points lower (-1.06%) at 34,313 points.

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At mid-session Thursday, soybean futures and corn are up slightly.

The Sept. corn futures are 1¼¢ higher at $5.44. New-crop Dec. futures are ¼¢ higher at $5.31¼. March corn futures are ¼¢ higher at $5.39. 
 
August soybean futures are 12¼¢ higher at $13.79. 

Sept. soybean futures are 7¼¢ higher at $13.40. New-crop November soybean futures are 6¼¢ higher at $13.33½.

Sept. wheat futures are 2¾¢ higher at $6.25. 

Aug. soymeal futures are $.60 per short ton lower at $358.10.

Aug. soy oil futures are 0.26¢ higher at 61.32¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.34 higher (+0.47%) at $72.54. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 238 points lower (-0.69%) at 34,443 points.

“The market will probably be choppy until the next WASDE reports,” says Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group senior analyst. “Beans and oilseeds in general are strong amid news that canola in the Canadian Prairies is dying.”

“Lower Brazilian corn crop totals should help corn more than it has,” he adds. “The crop is lower than what Conab says but at least the Conab [Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's Supply Management Company] and USDA estimators are in the right direction these days. Just slow to acknowledge the actual losses. The drought map is out and showed increased drought in Minnesota and mixed in other areas. But there are rains around to keep the weather bulls quiet.”

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In early trading Thursday, corn and soybean futures are lower, with beans giving up part of Wednesday’s gains.

The Sept. corn futures are 2¢ lower at $5.40¾. New-crop Dec. futures are 2¢ lower at $5.29. March corn futures are 2¼¢ lower at $5.36½. 
 
August soybean futures are 5¼¢ lower at $13.61½. 

Sept. soybean futures are 6½¢ lower at $13.26¼. New-crop November soybean futures are 8½¢ lower at $13.18¾.

Sept. wheat futures are ¾¢ higher at $6.23. 

Aug. soymeal futures are $0.90 per short ton lower at $357.80.

Aug. soy oil futures are 0.29¢ lower at 60.77¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.38 lower (-0.53%) at $71.82. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 375 points lower (-1.08%) at 34,306 points.

Some analysts have been looking for increased U.S. grain exports after Tuesday’s sharp drop in futures prices. So far, this is the only report today from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service:

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 122,200 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Mexico during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybean meal began Oct. 1.

USDA issues both daily and weekly export sales reports to the public. Exporters are required to report to USDA any export sales activity of 100,000 tons or more of one commodity, made in one day or quantities totaling 200,000 tons or more in any reporting period, except 20,000 tons for soybean oil, made in one day to one destination or quantities totaling 40,000 tons or more in any reporting period, by 3:00 p.m. Eastern time on the next business day following the sale. Export sales of less than these quantities must be reported to USDA on a weekly basis.

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At the close Wednesday, the Sept. corn futures contract settled 9¼¢ lower at $5.42¾. New-crop Dec. futures finished 8¾¢ lower at $5.31. March corn futures ended 7½¢ lower at $5.38¾. 
 
August soybean futures finished 22½¢ higher at $13.66¾.

Sept. soybean futures closed 20¢ higher at $13.32¾. New-crop November soybean futures ended 22¼¢ higher at $13.27¼¢.

Sept. wheat futures closed 3¾¢ lower at $6.22¼. 

Aug. soymeal futures finished $2.10 per short ton higher at $358.70.

Aug. soy oil futures closed 0.66¢ higher at 61.06¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.34 lower (-1.83%) at $72.03. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 41 points higher (+0.12%) at 34,618 points.

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At mid-session Wednesday, soybean futures are up but far from recovering from Tuesday’s near-limit moves downward while corn and wheat are down.

The Sept. corn futures are 10¢ lower at $5.42. New-crop Dec. futures are 11¢ lower at $5.28¾. March corn futures are 9½¢ lower at $5.36¾. 
 
August soybean futures are 21¼¢ higher at $13.65½. 

Sept. soybean futures are 20¢ higher at $13.32¾. New-crop November soybean futures are 20½¢ higher at $13.25½.

Sept. wheat futures are 1¼¢ lower at $6.24¾. 

Aug. soymeal futures are $1.80 per short ton higher at $358.40.

Aug. soy oil futures are 0.94¢ higher at 61.34¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.74 lower (-2.37%) at $71.63. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 44 points higher (+0.13%) at 34,621 points.

Compared with Tuesday’s gloomy fireworks with limit-down corn moves, Wednesday’s trading is relatively calm.

“Really, it’s just markets adjusting to yesterday’s big decline,” says Sal Gilbertie, founder of Teucrium Trading. “Beans are naturally stronger, given the tighter balance sheet. The markets know that the timely rains for pollination in the central Corn Belt still won’t make up for what appears to be permanent damage in the north and west, which means the markets are probably adjusting for a trend line yield in corn, but not more.”

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In early trading Wednesday, soybean futures are up but far from recovering from Tuesday’s near-limit moves downward while corn and wheat are down.

The Sept. corn futures are 11½¢ lower at $5.40½. New-crop Dec. futures are 12½¢ lower at $5.27¼. March corn futures are 11½¢ lower at $5.34¾. 
 
August soybean futures are 15¢ higher at $13.59¼. 

Sept. soybean futures are 15¼¢ higher at $13.28. New-crop November soybean futures are 15¾¢ higher at $13.20¾.

Sept. wheat futures are 3½¢ lower at $6.22½. 

Aug. soymeal futures are $2.70 per short ton higher at $359.30.

Aug. soy oil futures are 0.35¢ higher at 60.75¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.52 higher (+0.71%) at $73.89. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 88 points higher (+0.26%) at 34,665 points.

After yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed little change in the condition of major crops (with spring wheat the big exception), Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors says, “Looking ahead to next week for corn and soybeans, I expect ratings to show an improvement in the report next Monday.”

“I am watching the USDA export sales report out on Friday to see if this hard down-move in the U.S. grain futures market brings in more global buying,” he adds. “The chart action is short-term. Looking ahead, I will be watching the USDA Crop Production and supply/demand reports next Monday. I think they may be positive for prices, so end-users may want to get some coverage ahead of the reports next week.”

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At the close Tuesday, the Sept. corn futures contract settled down its daily limit of 40¢ at $5.52. New-crop Dec. futures finished limit down 40¢ at $5.39¾. March corn futures ended down the limit of 40¢ at $5.46¼. 
 
August soybean futures finished 89¢ lower at $13.44¼. 

Sept. soybean futures closed 95¼¢ lower at $13.12¾. New-crop November soybean futures ended 94¢ lower at $13.05.

Sept. wheat futures closed 26¾¢ lower at $6.26. 

Aug. soymeal futures finished $24.90 per short ton lower at $356.60.

Aug. soy oil futures closed 3.07¢ lower at 60.40¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.92 lower (-2.55%) at $73.24. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 269 points lower (-0.78%) at 34,516 points.

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On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets fall sharply.

At midsession, the Sept. corn futures contract reached its daily limit low of 40¢ at $5.52. New-crop Dec. futures hit limit down 40¢ at $5.39¾. March corn futures dropped the limit of 40¢ at $5.46¼. 
 
August soybean futures are 86¼¢ lower at $13.46. 

Sept. soybean futures are 89¾¢ lower at $13.18. New-crop November soybean futures are 88¼¢ lower at $13.10

Sept. wheat futures are 31¼¢ lower at $6.21. 

Aug. soymeal futures are $23.10 per short ton lower at $357.70.

Aug. soy oil futures are 3.30¢ lower at 60.17¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is -1.61 lower (-2.14%) at $73.55. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 339 points lower (-0.98%) at 34,447 points.

David Tolleris, WxRisk.com, says that the wetter/cooler weather outlooks established last week remain intact.

“The pattern could come in much wetter for the Upper Plains and the Midwest because of more of the weather pattern known as the MJO moving into phase 3 during the next seven to 10 days,” Tolleris says.

On Thursday and Friday, the Bermuda high will build into the East Coast, which will cause the trough in the jet stream to slow down and the associated surface cold front to stall in a more or less west-to-east direction across the Upper Plains in the Midwest for the next seven to eight days (or longer), he says.

“This will allow for the development of large closed upper low in the jet stream centered across Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois this weekend into early next week. It is this feature that becomes such a significant rain maker with waves of low pressure along the front. With the Gulf of Mexico moisture source completely open for business… the result will be significant if not heavy rain over a large portion of the entire Midwest as well as a good portion of Nebraska and South Dakota,” Tolleris stated in an email Tuesday. 

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