Soybeans Close 32¢ Lower Thursday

The Bears Rule The Roost

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets close lower, as more favorable crop weather trumps demand.

At the close, the September corn futures settled 4¢ lower at $3.23½, and December futures ended 4¼¢ lower at $3.32 per bushel.

September soybean futures finished 32½¢ lower at $9.98¼; November soybean futures finished 29¾¢ lower at $9.75½.

September wheat futures closed 2¾¢ lower at $4.01¼.

September soy meal futures ended $7.20 short ton lower at $324.30. September soy oil futures finished 0.66¢ lower at 32.91¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.58 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points lower.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says that today’s trade is the classic “buy the rumor sell the fact.”

“Today’s weekly exports were large, as the USDA predicted,” Roose says. “But can they offset the massive crop that is just around the corner? Also, with the large world feed grain supply, can exports sustain at these levels?”

Jason Ward, director of grains and energy, says the market is digesting higher prospects for U.S. soybean yields.

“Plus, the technical side of the soybean market is showing multiple failed attempts to hurdle $10.20 per bushel in November 16 futures contract. The failed attempts have generated profit-taking by speculators that are holding long trading positions.

Ward adds, “We also have gone three consecutive days without seeing daily soybean sales on the daily reporting system. So, on top of all these pod count numbers, reported during this week’s crop tour, (which have been bearish) we are seeing a break by the exporter on the buy side. So, the ebb and flow of big production and big demand continues, and today the production chatter is winning.”
 
Warm weather could be viewed as slightly negative to soybeans, as it will expedite harvest, Ward says. “If the weather turns soybeans quicker (it might be a little impactful on yield, though, as the crop shuts down and maybe doesn’t fill all those pods),” Ward says.

The one thing everyone agrees on is that water would be negative to the crop at this point.

“We are hearing guys saying that any rain from here forward only hurts soybean yields, not helps. So, warm/dry expedites harvest and is price-negative, while warm/wet is positive to price, slowing down harvest and further reducing yields (from a new record).”
 
“Corn has been lower every day this week, the first three days on wheat pressure and today getting caught in the undertow of soybeans,” Ward says.

One price-supporting factor is that the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows that soybean sales beat expectations, while corn hit the high end.

  • Wheat = 379,700 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of 300,000 to 625,000 mt.
  • Corn = 1.13 mmt vs. the trade’s expectations of 850,000 to 1,300,000 mt.
  • Soybeans = 2.054 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 1,000,000 to 1,800,000 mt

 

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