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Soybean Prices Close Lower Friday

Not a lot of buying interest, in today's market.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s farm markets ended the week’s final day of trade lower.

At the close, the December corn futures settled 4½¢ lower at $3.44½. March futures settled 4¼¢ lower at $3.58½.

November soybean futures closed 7¾¢ lower at $9.78¾. January soybean futures closed 7¾¢ lower at $9.89¼.

December wheat futures closed 6¾¢ lower at $4.26.

December soy meal futures ended $4.30 per short ton lower at $317.10. December soy oil futures closed 0.33¢ higher at 34.16¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.32 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 142 points higher.

Dustin Johnson, senior strategist for AgYield, says that the markets are lower due to harvest pressure.

“Weather is conducive for harvest, and there is likely to be a speedy catch-up. Many producers are making the actual cash sale this year rather than placing corn on delayed pricing,” Johnson says.

He adds, “Corn has been reluctant to find the same strength as soybeans, which is likely due to the large competition for growers to price corn at higher levels, while hedge funds are already short.”

On Friday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

  • Export sales of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2017/2018 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Spain during the 2017/2018 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 125,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began September 1.

 

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Thursday's Grain Market Review

The CME Group’s farm markets backed off their daily highs, still closed higher.

At the close, the December corn futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.49. March futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.62¾.

November soybean futures closed 2¼¢ higher at $9.86½. January soybean futures finished 2¢ higher at $9.97.

December wheat futures closed 2¾¢ higher at $4.32¾.

December soy meal futures settled $0.40 per short ton lower at $321.40. December soy oil futures are 0.42¢ higher at 33.83¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.63 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 16 points lower.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says all commodities are finding interest.

“All grains are finding support today, with solid exports in the soybeans today with China continuing to have the main interest. That is fueling the short covering with harvest progress continuing at a slower pace vs. this five-year average,” Roose says.

He adds, “Brazil and Ukraine crops will be closely watched the next few month to determine world crop size.”

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 384,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

Separately, the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday noted strong corn, soybean, and wheat demand.

  • Corn = 1.25 million metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 700,000 and 1,400,000 mt.
  • Soybeans = 1.275 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 1,000,000 and 1,800,000 mt.
  • Soybean meal =  296,000 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000 and 200,000 mt.
  • Wheat = 615,400 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000 and 400,000 mt.

 

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s corn and soybean prices lacked fresh news, sending them to a slightly lower close.

At the close, the December corn futures settled 1½¢ lower at $3.48½. March futures finished 1½¢ lower at $3.62¼.

November soybean futures closed ½¢ lower at $9.84; January soybean futures finished ¼¢ lower at $9.95.

December wheat futures closed 4¾¢ lower at $4.30.

December soy meal futures closed 20¢ per short ton higher at $321.80. December soy oil futures ended 0.18¢ lower at 33.41¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 19¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 165 points higher.

For the week, wheat is down 0.92%, corn has fallen 0.43%, and soybeans are off .10%.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says trading activity is slow.  

“Investors are still talking harvest and ideas that harvest should really ramp up this week, due to the drier weather. Some of my western Corn Belt customers are finally getting into the fields; others in central and eastern Corn Belt areas are getting done with beans and moving to corn, if it’s dry enough.” 

Scoville adds, “The markets are certainly paying attention to SA weather that looks to improve. No one is doing much trading, mostly commercials and funds from what I can see. The retail customers are quiet,” Scoville says.
 
Brian A. Rydlund, CHS Hedging market analyst, agrees that the markets lack fresh trading news.

“Most thoughts center on weather, for both the U.S. and South America. In the U.S., it’s a nice harvest week. Combines are rolling and yields continue to feel “as expected and better” in many spots,” says Rydlund.

For South America, better planting weather – involving rain for northern and northeastern Brazil (where it’s needed) and net drying for Argentina that is speeding corn planting – is being digested by the markets, Rydlund says.

 

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

Des Moines, Iowa -- At the close Tuesday, the December corn futures finished ½¢ lower at $3.50, while March futures finished ½¢ lower at $3.63¾.

November soybean futures finished 6¼¢ lower at $9.84¾; January soybean futures were 6¼¢ lower at $9.95¼.

December wheat futures closed 1¾¢ lower at $4.34¾.

December soy meal futures finished $2.90 per short ton lower at $321.30. December soy oil futures closed unchanged at 33.59¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 14¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 19 points higher.

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Des Moines, Iowa — At midsession Tuesday, the December corn futures are ¼¢ lower at $3.50¾, while March futures are ¼¢ lower at $3.64½.

November soybean futures are 4½¢ lower at $9.86½; January soybean futures are 4¾¢ lower at $9.96¾.

December wheat futures are ¾¢ lower at $4.35¾.

December soy meal futures are $2.30 per short ton lower at $322.20. December soy oil futures are 0.03¢ higher at 33.62¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 53¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points higher.

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Des Moines, Iowa -- At the open Tuesday, the December corn futures are 1¾¢ lower at $3.48¾. March futures are 1¾¢ lower at $3.62½.

November soybean futures are 6¢ lower at $9.85; January soybean futures are 6¢ lower at $9.95½.

December wheat futures are ½¢ lower at $4.36.

December soy meal futures are $2.10 per short ton lower at $322.40. December soy oil futures are $0.21 lower at 33.38¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 3¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points higher.

Jason Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa, sees “harvest pressure as the dominant factor” in Tuesday’s lower open. “Dry weather will increase harvest. The strong dollar poor corn exports, and ideal weather in Brazil will limit any rallies.”

Last week’s rally is another factor in lower soybean prices, says Justin Kelly, president of AgYield. “The weather outlook has improved in South America and soybeans have rallied sharply (and made new highs) against corn and wheat in the past few sessions. This has caused some selling from South American farmers and liquidation in the inter-commodity spreads by the spec trader.”

Scott Shellady: Market Lessons Learned From Last Week¿s USDA Report

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Monday's Market Review

Des Moines, Iowa -- At the close Monday, the December corn futures are 2¼¢ lower at $3.50½, and March futures are 2¼¢ lower at $3.64¼.

November soybean futures are 9¼¢ lower at $9.91; January soybean futures are 8¾¢ lower at $10.01½.

December wheat futures are 3¢ lower at $4.36½.

December soy meal futures are $4.10 per short ton lower at $324.50. December soy oil futures are 0.10¢ lower at 33.59¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 51¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 59 points higher.

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Des Moines, Iowa -- At midsession Monday, the December corn futures are 1½¢ lower at $3.51¼. March futures are 1¾¢ lower at $3.64¾.

November soybean futures are 4½¢ lower at $9.95¾; January soybean futures are 4¼¢ lower at $10.06.

December wheat futures are 1½¢ lower at $4.38.

December soy meal futures are $2.70 per short ton lower at $325.90. December soy oil futures are 0.09¢ higher at 33.78¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 51¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points higher.

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Des Moines, Iowa -- The December corn futures are 1¢ lower at $3.51¾. March futures are 1¢ lower at $3.65½.

November soybean futures are 2¼¢ lower at $9.98; January soybean futures are 2½¢ lower at $10.07¾.

December wheat futures are 2¼¢ higher at $4.41¾.

December soy meal futures are $2.60 per short ton lower at $326. December soy oil futures are 0.08¢ higher at 33.77¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 72¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 50 points higher.

“After a STRONG performance last week in soybeans, a little correction is expected, but the TREND is higher,” says Jason Ward, director of grains and energy for Northstar Commodity Research. “More demand was on the doorstep this morning from an unknown taking over 8 million bushels. Corn is still a follower of soy/wheat and with soybeans a little weaker corn can be weaker.”

“Our most recent weather scenario still leans positive to soybeans through about October 25, and by positive I mean WETTER for South Brazil and DRIER for Northern and Eastern Brazil, both scenarios delaying the planting,” Ward adds. “The current 11- to 15-day forecast leans WETTER for October 26 into November 1; moisture at that time would be very welcome.”

“Regarding U.S. weather, I think it leans negative to prices with a WARM/DRY outlook for the Midwest allowing harvest pace to pick up rapidly,” he says. “My early corn yields are better than expected, while soybean yields continue to be at or below USDA expectations.”

On soybean support this week, Ward says to watch the breakout of $9.84. “If we can hold that on the pullback, the same pattern exists for soybeans, higher lows and higher highs. We sold 8.35 million bushels this morning to unknown, so it was nice to see some buying develop AFTER last week’s rally.”

Sal Gilbert of Teucrium Trading is also watching soybeans closely. “I would have to say that soybean demand is the real story; record overall global soybean demand and record demand for U.S. soy exports have made the markets dependent upon continuing record (or near-record) soy production each and every crop year in order to keep prices in check.”

“In fact, for all of the big three grains of corn, soybeans and wheat, the recent multiyear pattern of rising demand and falling prices is simply not sustainable; eventually there will be a supply hiccup, and prices are very likely to react accordingly due to unrelenting demand,” Scoville says.

 

 

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