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SoyRoy: With February in the Rearview, It May Be Time for Selling

"Never sell soybeans in February" is one of the rules I have had over the many years of developing marketing plans. The reason for this rule is that the highest price of the marketing year has never been in February. Therefore, if you have beans in storage over the winter, it is better to sell them after March 1 than to rush the sales before the end of February. I realize that most farmers who are interested in marketing have probably heard me expound on this theory until they are sick of it.

For most of February this year, the market appeared to be making an exception to my rule. The reason that I bring up the topic now is that the calendar has finally turned to March. Soybean futures prices are bumping up against a level that represents the highest price for this move. It may be the highest of the whole soybean complex since harvest last fall. With another week like last week for the soybean and corn futures markets and my strategy will again prove to be correct in delaying sales until spring.

Both soybeans and corn have made moves that appear to be pointing to improved demand as spring approaches. Therefore, further price improvement should follow the lead of the long-term seasonal price charts. With all of the uncertainty of the new administration on the Potomac, anything can happen. It will take a while for the economy to adjust to new faces in Washington. In general, the market dislikes uncertainty. Maybe this will be the year when unrest motivates the market to move higher instead of lower. At least, so far this season, that has been the case. Now what we need is to take the necessary action and make sales on days when the market rallies.

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