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Soybeans close $1.18 lower, corn ends limit down | Thursday, June 17, 2021

The soybean complex collapsed.

On Thursday, the CME Group’s soybean market had its largest one day drop in decades.

At the close, the July corn futures finished limit down 40¢ at $6.33. New-crop September futures closed limit down 40¢ at $5.48¾. December corn futures closed limit down 40¢ lower at $5.32¾. 
July soybean futures closed $1.18¾¢ lower at $13.29½. 

August soybean futures finished $1.07 lower at $12.95. New-crop November soybean futures closed 90½¢ lower at $12.52¾.

July wheat futures finished 23¢ lower at $6.39½. 

July soymeal futures closed $17.70 per short ton lower at $361.50.

July soy oil futures ended 5.50¢ lower at 56.57¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is -1.10 lower (-1.52%) at $71.05. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 244 points lower (-0.72%) at 33,789 points.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that there are two reasons why the soybean complex is failing.

“First, a lot of rain is in the forecast for some of the drier areas of the Midwest. It might pan out or it might not, but it is the forecast from one of the models, and the market is choosing to believe it. Second, the potential shift from Biden on waivers has caught the market and soybean oil and corn are reacting. Soybeans were higher quite a bit with the soybean oil, as it collapses. Export demand was pretty bad today, too,” Scoville says.  

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 135,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybean cake and meal began Oct. 1.

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows weak demand figures for corn. Here are the totals:

  • Corn = 294,100 metric tons (mt.) vs. the trade’s expectations of 100,000 to 500,000 mmt. 
  • Soybeans = 71,800 mt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 200,000 to 300,000 mt.
  • Wheat = 287,000 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 200,000 to 500,000 mt.
  • Soybean meal = 185,100 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 100,000 to 300,000 mt.

Bob Linneman, Kluis Advisors, says that investors continue to monitor weather forecasts for price direction.

“It appears traders are starting to believe the rain forecasts for key states will come true, based on the slide in prices. However, it is likely that next Monday’s Crop Progress report will show another decline in corn and soybean conditions in much of the Corn Belt,” Kluis stated in a note to customers.  

Kluis added, “In the outside markets, the Federal Reserve hinted to the market that it will slowly start the process of tightening monetary policy. Although the indication is that the earliest rate hike would not happen until 2023, it is sooner than what they had been indicating since the COVID-induced actions were triggered.”

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