Trade Looks to Harvest Reports, Weather Forecast
There was light follow through selling in corn seen today on much reduced volume. Beans saw a little additional negative export news that might have helped to spill over to corn today while this market saw little news at all today. December corn fell just below the recent uptrend line.
Yesterday showed solid signs of support with beans down aggressively and corn down just slightly while today appeared to be low volume on both sides. The trade anticipates a drastic improvement to harvest pace on Monday, which likely helped today's slide. Attention will also likely turn back to the weather forecast as it looks on Sunday night. Recently, there were light rains added but nothing of size, so we will wait to see what the Sunday maps offer for direction early next week.
As a whole, it was a week of slightly disappointing demand but not poor enough to suggest yet we are seeing a change in trend. For this reason, traders will watch both the ethanol and export reports even closer next week. Will they remain weak to finally suggest demand is slowing or will they bounce back to suggest this week was just a one week minor slowdown in demand?
- Bulls will certainly be looking for a pickup in demand again next week and if that happens will likely buy this week's setback
- Support came in at the uptrend line and next technical support would be expected at the October lows of 360 1/4
- The long term outlook will not be changed yet from just one week of a slowdown in demand
- Beans have more open downside potential and if beans can fall far enough we can expect more weight on corn
- The recent uptrend line was taken out opening the chart to next lighter support expected at 360 1/4
- Open interest increased on yesterday's setback, it might be too early to call but that could have been light fund selling again
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.
DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.
The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.