Content ID

277392

Trade Looks to Harvest Reports, Weather Forecast

There was light follow through selling in corn seen today on much reduced volume. Beans saw a little additional negative export news that might have helped to spill over to corn today while this market saw little news at all today. December corn fell just below the recent uptrend line.

Yesterday showed solid signs of support with beans down aggressively and corn down just slightly while today appeared to be low volume on both sides. The trade anticipates a drastic improvement to harvest pace on Monday, which likely helped today's slide. Attention will also likely turn back to the weather forecast as it looks on Sunday night. Recently, there were light rains added but nothing of size, so we will wait to see what the Sunday maps offer for direction early next week.

As a whole, it was a week of slightly disappointing demand but not poor enough to suggest yet we are seeing a change in trend. For this reason, traders will watch both the ethanol and export reports even closer next week. Will they remain weak to finally suggest demand is slowing or will they bounce back to suggest this week was just a one week minor slowdown in demand?

Bulls

  • Bulls will certainly be looking for a pickup in demand again next week and if that happens will likely buy this week's setback
  • Support came in at the uptrend line and next technical support would be expected at the October lows of 360 1/4
  • The long term outlook will not be changed yet from just one week of a slowdown in demand

Bears

  • Beans have more open downside potential and if beans can fall far enough we can expect more weight on corn
  • The recent uptrend line was taken out opening the chart to next lighter support expected at 360 1/4
  • Open interest increased on yesterday's setback, it might be too early to call but that could have been light fund selling again

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