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315888

USDA raises U.S. soybean ending stocks, corn unchanged

U.S. ending stocks create little waves in the grain markets.

The USDA leaves old-crop corn supplies unchanged, soybean supplies build, creating mixed market reaction.

On Monday, the USDA released its July Supply/Demand and WASDE Reports.

As a result, the ag markets had little reaction.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 15¾¢ higher at $5.45¾. New-crop Dec. futures closed 16¢ higher at $5.33½. March corn futures ended 15½¢ higher at $5.40. 
 
August soybean futures settled 25¢ higher at $14.04. 

Sept. soybean futures closed 19¾¢ higher at $13.58. New-crop November soybean futures finished 21¼¢ higher at $13.50¼.

Sept. wheat futures closed 25¾¢ higher at $6.40¾. 

Aug. soymeal futures closed $2.90 per short ton higher at $357.00.

Aug. soy oil futures settled 1.70¢ higher at 64.05¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is -0.40 lower (-0.54%) at $74.16. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 110 points higher (+0.32%) at 34,980 points.

2020/2021 U.S. ENDING STOCKS

For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. old-crop ending stocks at 1.08 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.08 billion bushels and the USDA’s June estimate of 1.10 billion.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 135 million bushels vs. the June estimate of 135 million bushels. The trade expected the USDA to print 134 million bushels today.

2021/2022 U.S. Ending Stocks

For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. new-crop ending stocks at 1.43 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.40 billion bushels and the June estimate of 1.35 billion bushels. 

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 155 million bushels vs. the trade that expected the USDA to print 148 million bushels today. In June, the USDA’s estimate was 155 million.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 665 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 729 million and compared with the June estimate of 770 million bushels. 

2020/2021 WORLD ENDING STOCKS

On Monday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 279.9 million metric tons (mmt.) vs. the trade’s expectation of 279.0 mmt. and the USDA’s June estimate of 280.5 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 91.5 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 87.6 mmt. and the USDA’s June estimate of 88.0 mmt.

For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 290.2 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 293.0 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 293.4 mmt.

2021/2022 World Ending Stocks

On Monday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 291.2 million metric tons (mmt.) vs. the trade’s expectation of 288.9 mmt. and the USDA’s June estimate of 289.4 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 94.5 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 92.5 mmt. and the USDA’s June estimate of 92.5 mmt.

For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 291.7 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 295.4 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 296.8 mmt.


2020/2021 WORLD CROP PRODUCTION

On Monday, the USDA pegged the 2020/2021 Brazilian soybean production at 137.0 mmt vs. the trade’s expectation of 136.1 mmt and the USDA’s estimate last month of 137.0 mmt.

For corn, Brazil’s output is seen at 93.0 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 92.21 mmt. and the USDA’s May estimate of 98.5 mmt.

For Argentina’s soybean output, the USDA pegged its crop at 46.5 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 48.8 mmt and the USDA’s June estimate of 48.8 mmt.

Argentina’s 2020/2021 corn crop is pegged at 48.5 mmt vs. the USDA’s previous estimate of 47.0 mmt. and the trade’s expectation of 47.46 mmt.

Trade Reaction

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that today's report shed very little light on the futures market.

“Historically the July USDA crop report does not give the trade many surprises, this year was no different, most numbers were left unchanged which was a neutral report in a very volatile market that was technically oversold. Ending stocks on corn increased to 1.432 Bln with an increase in production.by 175 mln  World ending stocks also increased for corn and beans from the June report. The Weather will continue to be the dominant factor going into August," Roose says.

PJ Quaid, independent broker, says that the market didn't think much of the USDA numbers.

"These numbers rarely budge much from the end of June number. Dec corn futures are back above the 100-day moving average and that keeps bulls happy. 

Trade ranges are starting to tighten, Quaid says.  

"Dec. only has a 15 3/4¢ range.  That does not bode well for traders long volatility. Volatility is breaking. Corn needs bigger ranges to pay for the volatility level corn was trading at last week," Quaid says.

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