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Soybean Market Closes 12¢ Lower Friday

The U.S. dollar is higher.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s farm markets drop.

At the close, the December corn futures finished 2¼¢ lower at $3.48¼. March futures settled 2¢ lower at $3.62.

January soybean futures closed 12½¢ lower at $9.86¾. March soybean futures finished 12½¢ lower at $9.97.

December wheat futures are 1½¢ higher at $4.27.

December soy meal futures closed $3.50 per short ton lower at $313.90. December soy oil futures finished 0.44¢ lower at 34.42¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.96 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 28 points higher.

 

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the buyers pushed up the CME Group’s farm markets.

At the close, the December corn futures finished 2¼¢ higher at $3.50. March futures finished 2¼¢ higher at $3.64.

January soybean futures closed 8¢ higher at $9.99; March soybean futures finished 8¢ higher at $10.09.

December wheat futures settled 8½¢ higher at $4.26.

December soy meal futures ended $3.80 per short ton higher at $317.40. December soy oil futures closed 0.04¢ lower at 34.86¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 12¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points higher.

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 1,356,360 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 845,820 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year, and 510,540 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began September 1.

Separately, the USDA’ weekly Export Sales Report Thursday pegged soybeans above the trade’s expectations, wheat within, and corn sales at the high end of expectations.

  • Wheat: 347,800 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000 and 500,000 mt
  • Corn: 901,400 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 750,000 and 1,300,000 mt
  • Soybeans: 1.97 million mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 800,000 and 1,400,000 mt
  • Soybean meal: 225,000 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 125,000 and 250,000 mt

 

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

It’s a bird! It’s a plane! No, it’s a soybean market rally! What?

At the close, the December corn futures finished 2½¢ higher at $3.48¼. March corn futures ended 2¼¢ higher at $3.62.

January soybean futures settled 6½¢ higher at $9.91¼, trading as high as a dime higher. March soybean futures closed 6½¢ higher at $10.01½.

December wheat futures ended ½¢ lower at $4.18.

December soy meal futures finished $1.80 per short ton higher at $313.60. December soy oil futures closed 0.15¢ higher at 34.90¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 16¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 64 points higher.

Brian A. Rydlund, CHS Hedging market analyst, says the new month is driving the soybean rally Wednesday.

“I don’t think it’s somebody else’s weather, i.e., Brazil. The rally doesn’t appear to be cash-related or export-related. So, I look at the calendar, and it’s November 1. So, it is just first-day-of-month buying,” Rydlund says.

Dustin Johnson, senior strategist for AgYield, says numerous factors could be behind the soybean market’s uptick.

“Cost insurance and freight (CIF) basis at the port in the Gulf of Mexico was up 3¢; could be a sign of more demand interest,” Johnson says.

Johnson adds, “Beans have been the strong product for months now. As we get past the gut-slot of harvest, there may be less hedge pressure to hold the support from fund purchasing. Given that today is the 1st of the month and soy harvest is winding down, that may be happening now.”

Johnson hasn’t heard anything to suggest there is a clear driver here.

“There were no daily sales announced, and the soybean sales pace is still running behind the five-year average pace of USDA projections. If end users were caught uncovered, we would probably be seeing more of a basis push; therefore, it is reasonable to assume this is fund-purchasing,” Johnson says.

 

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets remain mostly lower.

At the close, the December corn futures settled 3¢ lower at $3.45. March futures ended 3¼¢ lower at $3.59½.

January soybean futures settled ¼¢ higher at $9.84¾; March soybean futures closed even at $9.95.

December wheat futures closed 6¼¢ lower at $4.18.

December soy meal futures ended 50¢ lower at $311.80. December soy oil futures closed 0.07¢ higher at 34.75¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 20¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says the farm markets Tuesday continue to trade in a thin trading range.

“Disappointing soybean yields and solid demand are giving the soy complex mild support. Tthe corn market is softer with better yields. Plus, an open harvest forecast, weak dollar, and good planting conditions in Brazil continue to give the market resistance,” Roose says.

 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the ag markets tried to move higher, only to close mostly lower.

At the close, the December corn futures finished steady at $3.48¾. March futures ended ¼¢ higher at $3.62¾.

November soybean futures settled 2½¢ lower at $9.72¾; January soybean futures settled 2¢ lower at $9.84½.

December wheat futures closed 2½¢ lower at $4.24¾.

December soy meal futures finished 20¢ per short ton higher at $312.30. December soy oil futures ended 0.16¢ lower at 34.68¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 22¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 75 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities, says the markets will be reacting to this week’s U.S. harvest progress and South America’s soybean planting weather.

“The rainfall this far in central and eastern Brazil has underperformed, and it has been hotter than normal. The forecast is for more rain later this week,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says the soybean market is the only one that has shown the desire to go higher. 

“The market is weak, I think, based on harvest progress as much as anything. Not hearing much about Brazil and Argentina, although the weather is supposed to be getting better,” Scoville says. 

Customers from Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil are able to plant with just enough moisture, he says. 

“The rest of Brazil is quiet, and my specs are quiet, too. So I think maybe funds and big specs are selling, as no one here or down south seems too interested in actually selling beans and corn.”

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