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Soybeans Drop 24¢ Friday

Investors take profits.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, a bearish USDA report Thursday and rain falling on Argentina’s drought-stricken soybeans sold off the market.

At the close, the May corn futures finished 3¢ lower at $3.90. July futures finished 2½¢ lower at $3.98.

May soybean futures closed 24¾¢ lower at $10.39¼. July soybean futures closed 24¾¢ lower at $10.48.

May wheat futures ended 10¢ lower at $4.89¼.

May soy meal futures closed $9.80 per short ton lower at $373.60. January soy oil futures finished 0.25¢ lower at 31.59¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.95 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 385 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that a few factors are pushing the markets down.

“A couple of things for the beans. First, there is rain in the forecast for Argentina and it has been there for a few days now, so investors are starting to believe it. The rains are supposed to arrive on maybe Monday, but investors want out just in case,” Scoville says. 

Investors are also looking at the tariffs and think it might push China to buy even less, Scoville says. 

“And, let’s face it, it’s been a big run with almost no correction and one is due now. So, some of the selling is related to ideas that maybe a correction is getting started,” Scoville says.

 

 

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets trade mostly higher, as investors anticipate new data from USDA.

In early trading, the May corn futures are ½¢ higher at $3.87; July futures are ½¢ higher at $3.95.

May soybean futures are ¼¢ lower at $10.65; July soybean futures are ¼¢ lower at $10.73.

May wheat futures are 4¾¢ higher at $5.01.

May soy meal futures are even per short ton at $383.50. January soy oil futures are 0.08¢ lower at 32.02¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 28¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 112 points higher.

 

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

At the close, the May corn futures finished 1¢ lower at $3.87¼; July futures finished 1¢ lower at $3.94.

May soybean futures settled 9½¢ lower at $10.65¼; July soybean futures ended 9¢ lower at $10.74.

May wheat futures closed 9¾¢ lower at $4.97¼.

May soy meal futures finished $4.50 per short ton lower at $383.50. January soy oil futures ended 0.38¢ lower at 32.10¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.38 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 179 points lower.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says there are multiple reasons for the lower markets.

“Grains are trading weaker with position squaring ahead of Thursday’s USDA Crop Report and world weather. Although lower stocks for corn are forecasted for tomorrow’s report, Argentina weather is still the dominant factor with moisture in the six- to 10-day forecast,” Roose says.

Bob Linnenman, Kluis Commodities analyst, says investors want to see what Thursday’s USDA report highlights.

“Soybeans have now posted back-to-back inside days on the daily chart. This suggests the bulls are running out of gas or traders are willing to pause here until the USDA report on Thursday. Corn managed to post a new high for the move. The corn chart looks impressive. We have seen higher highs in seven of the last eight trading days,” Linneman stated in a daily note to customers Wednesday.

He adds, “The recent bull run in soybeans might be peaking. The momentum traders are not known for having patience, meaning they need to see new highs almost daily. Otherwise, they are likely to flip out of longs and go short.”

 

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets have trimmed their losses, with corn even turning higher.

At the close, the May corn futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.88; July futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.95½.

May soybean futures settled 2¾¢ lower at $10.74¾; July soybean futures closed 2¾¢ lower at $10.83.

May wheat futures ended 2¼¢ lower at $5.07.

May soy meal futures closed $5.20 per short ton lower at $388.80. January soy oil futures closed 0.27¢ higher at 32.48¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 2¢lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 13 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says investors are eyeing this week’s USDA monthly reports.

“I would not read much into the price action. We do have some monthly reports out on Thursday and the market has tended to consolidate before previous reports. Today appears to be no exception. Be that as it may, there's no real reason to trash these markets even though specs have been buying. Just too much weather around to support things here and overseas," Scoville says.

On Tuesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities, says the markets need fresh bullish news. “The USDA reports on Thursday need to be bullish to keep this rally going,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers. How long will the funds get in soybeans? If the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report on Friday shows funds long over 200,000 contracts of soybeans, then the soybean market will have limited room to move higher.”

 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm futures prices have moved higher.

At the close, the May corn futures finished 2¢ higher at $3.87¼; July futures ended 2¢ higher at $3.94½.

May soybean futures settled 6½¢ higher at $10.77½; July soybean futures closed 6½¢ higher at $10.85¾.

May wheat futures finished 9¼¢ higher at $5.09¼.

May soy meal futures settled 30¢ per short ton higher at $393.20. January soy oil futures ended 0.09¢ lower at 32.21¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.33 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 317 points higher.

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