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Corn Closes 11¢ Lower Friday

Wheat has turned lower.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Some of the Midwestern crops received a drink last night, therefore, today’s corn market closed double-digits lower.

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 11 1/4¢ lower at $3.79 3/4, while December futures finished 11 1/4¢ lower at $3.93 1/2.

Aug. soybean futures ended 4 1/4¢ lower at $10.09, November soybean futures closed 4 3/4¢ lower at $10.22.

September wheat futures closed 6 1/2¢ lower at $4.99.

Dec. soy meal futures settled $1.30 per short ton lower at $336.80. Dec. soy oil futures closed $0.18 lower at 34.27¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.28 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points lower.

Brian Rydland, CHS Hedging analyst, says that it appears better overnight rains, and a wetter 6 to 10 day weather outlook have markets defensive today.

“We trade results vs forecasts, then look at forward wx ideas, and then do it again,” Rydland says.

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity’s director of grains and energy, says that the market is reacting to rainfall.

“It’s as simple as some rainfall coming through Northern IA. Also, if you want to throw something else on top, the forecast pushes much of the extreme heat out of the Midwest after this Saturday,” Ward says.

Ward adds, “Our weather service has the extreme heat that we saw this week across the Central Midwest pushing south only effecting MO and KS, which is not good for those two states, but largely the heat moves south of Iowa.”

Looking out 6-10 days and 11-15 days, the latest weather models are not wet though, he says.

“So, we are still going to struggle for moisture, but cooler temps slows the decline of the crop, even though it will still decline,” Ward says.

For many this week, especially in southwest MN and IA, it is the best rain of the month, and in some cases the best rain in 2 months, he says.

“In my view, this is not a new lows scenario, just a healthy setback. Buyers will emerge on the break in price, but honestly a 6 cent pullback in soybeans is absolutely nothing. Corn down 7-8 cents is more significant, and it could pull back to the high $3.80’s on Dec 17 futures, but support will be offered as the private sector continues to lower their yield estimates, following Informa’s lead yesterday,” Ward says.

Look for lower ratings on Monday afternoon, and we’ll trade the weather again next week, he says.

 

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets close just below their daily highs on crop-stressing weather in the Midwest.

At the close, the September corn futures finished 8½¢ higher at $3.91, and December futures settled 8½¢ higher at $4.04¾.

August soybean futures closed 13½¢ higher at $10.13¼; November soybean futures closed 14½¢ higher at $10.27.

September wheat futures finished 2½¢ higher at $5.05¾.

December soy meal futures settled $3.90 per short ton higher at $338.10. December soy oil futures closed 0.57¢ higher at 34.45¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 38¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 26 points lower.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says it remains a weather-driven market.

“We continue to build premium in the grain markets with hot, dry weather and current crop ratings dropping. Lower yield estimates are also giving support to the grains at these current prices,” Roose says.

On Thursday, the USDA released a strong Weekly Export Sales Report for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Here are the totals.

  • Wheat: 669,500 metric tons (mt) vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000 and 500,000 mt
  • Corn: 678,600 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000 and 700,000 mt
  • Soybeans: 1.932 million mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000 and 2,200,000 mt
  • Soybean meal: 117,300 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 75,000 and 200,000 mt

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets used a weather outlook that leans drier to close higher.

At the close, the Sepember corn futures finished 5½¢ higher at $3.82½, and December futures finished 5½¢ higher at $3.96¼.

August soybean futures ended 10¼¢ higher at $9.99; November soybean futures closed 10¾¢ higher at $10.12.

September wheat futures settled ¾¢ lower at $5.03.

December soy meal futures closed $3.30 per short ton higher at $334.20. December soy oil futures finished 0.29¢ higher at 33.88¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 74¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 43 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says the markets are up as the weather seems to be hot and dry again. 

“The American and European models are battling it out in terms of wet and hot and dusty. Right now, the European model seems to be winning. Farmers are slowly pricing old- and new-crop corn,” Scoville says. 

He adds, “There are some real problems out there with uneven corn and some very short soybeans, too. So, we might not be done with this puppy just yet. We will stay firm until the next round of models come out around noon. We may stay stronger, depending upon what those models have to say.”

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets finished much lower than they started.

At the close, the September corn futures finished 2¢ higher at $3.77, and December futures settled 2¾¢ higher at $3.90¾.

August soybean futures settled 4½¢ higher at $9.89½; November soybean futures closed 4¼¢ higher at $10.01¾.

September wheat futures closed 2¼¢ lower at $5.03¾.

December soy meal futures closed $1.70 per short ton higher at $323.50. December soy oil futures closed 0.16¢ higher at 33.17¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 38¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 57 points lower.

Mike North, president Commodity Risk Management Group, says today’s market drivers were a mixed bag.

“Today was a convoluted mishmash of weather pushing prices higher overnight in the wake of falling crop condition scores. That was then offset by yet another change in weather forecasts and profittaking by early buyers,” North says.

Beginning tonight and lasting through the end of the week, severe weather storms are possible in the Midwest, according to AccuWeather's latest forecast.

The weather service is calling for damaging winds, hail, and torrential downpours from southeast South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska to central Wisconsin. These storms are expected to move in a southeasterly direction.

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group continues to see little movement, aside from the soybean complex gaining slight strength.

At the close, the September corn futures finished 1¼¢ lower at $3.75, while December futures finished 1½¢ lower at $3.88.

August soybean futures closed 4¢ lower at $9.85; November soybean futures closed 4¢ lower at $9.97.

September wheat futures closed 4¾¢ lower at $5.06.

December soy meal futures settled $1.90 per short ton lower at $321.80. December soy oil futures closed 0.24¢ lower at 33.44¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 51¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says that as the crop conditions go, so go the markets.

“The grains are trading lower today on a mixed weather forecast. With the majority of the crop going through pollination the next 10 days, Monday's USDA Weekly Crop Conditions Report will be watched closely after three weeks of lower ratings,” Roose says.

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